There will be no room for your pathetic misplaced compassion under Comrade Corbyn's revolution.
The 2017 General Election campaign
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There will be no room for your pathetic misplaced compassion under Comrade Corbyn's revolution.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I think this election has been defined and shaped by some unusual factors:
1. It began as a non-election really, an opportunistic vote of confidence for May that had the happy side effect of destroying Labour. And for a good 3 weeks or so (?) it was exactly that.
2. Labour being so far behind and massively dis-functional, again, something that seemed to still be the case for the first phase of the election.
3. Shit journalism, which has benefitted Labour. Yes, certainly, there's been anti-Labour bias from the beeb and most of the newspapers. But linked to 2. there's hasn't been a great deal of scrutiny of Labour's manifesto and costings. Instead the media have focused on whether Corbyn, Abbot et al could remember their costings. Woman's Hour and the like were damaging, but probably better than long running scrutiny of 'black holes in Labour's finances' type stuff.
4. It would be mad to predict anything at the moment but we should remember Labour went into the 2015 election final week on level pegging with the Tories - and lost by 8%. Even with adjustments to the methodology Labour are now round about 8% behind on an average of the polls. My hunch is that a fair bit of Labour's current polling strength is soft and that the last week will focus on leadership, economic competence and brexit negotiations. My latest random thought is that we will end up with something like a 10-11% tory lead.
((((Bucket of cold water)))) - I'm just off to disappoint some kittens.
1. It began as a non-election really, an opportunistic vote of confidence for May that had the happy side effect of destroying Labour. And for a good 3 weeks or so (?) it was exactly that.
2. Labour being so far behind and massively dis-functional, again, something that seemed to still be the case for the first phase of the election.
3. Shit journalism, which has benefitted Labour. Yes, certainly, there's been anti-Labour bias from the beeb and most of the newspapers. But linked to 2. there's hasn't been a great deal of scrutiny of Labour's manifesto and costings. Instead the media have focused on whether Corbyn, Abbot et al could remember their costings. Woman's Hour and the like were damaging, but probably better than long running scrutiny of 'black holes in Labour's finances' type stuff.
4. It would be mad to predict anything at the moment but we should remember Labour went into the 2015 election final week on level pegging with the Tories - and lost by 8%. Even with adjustments to the methodology Labour are now round about 8% behind on an average of the polls. My hunch is that a fair bit of Labour's current polling strength is soft and that the last week will focus on leadership, economic competence and brexit negotiations. My latest random thought is that we will end up with something like a 10-11% tory lead.
((((Bucket of cold water)))) - I'm just off to disappoint some kittens.
bemused
Well-Known Member
I think their problem is they stopped talking about it. There is always that moment in a Tory camapign when you know the wheels are about to come off - when they start talking about fox hunting.
The curse of the bushy red tail struck May hard. When fox hunting is brought up you know this is the time they feel they have enough of a lead to start wheeling out their pet projects.
For the next week they'll just be banging on about brexit, pointing to who Labour's caolition partners would be and glue to all togather with any polls showing a hung parliment.
The Pale King
Well-Known Member
There was an article in Private Eye a few weeks ago raising some questions about Amber Rudd's involvement as company director with several of her crooked father's firms. It seems she hasn't really done anything else for work than that before politics.
The Pale King
Well-Known Member
Had a chat with a similarly-minded Auntie the other night. She is culturally, pre-ideologically disposed to vote Tory and never Labour, but the dementia tax and fox-hunting has her spooked and she is contemplating either sitting this one out or voting Lib Dem. I hope there are more like her...
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I think this election has been defined and shaped by some unusual factors:
1. It began as a non-election really, an opportunistic vote of confidence for May that had the happy side effect of destroying Labour. And for a good 3 weeks or so (?) it was exactly that.
2. Labour being so far behind and massively dis-functional, again, something that seemed to still be the case for the first phase of the election.
3. Shit journalism, which has benefitted Labour. Yes, certainly, there's been anti-Labour bias from the beeb and most of the newspapers. But linked to 2. there's hasn't been a great deal of scrutiny of Labour's manifesto and costings. Instead the media have focused on whether Corbyn, Abbot et al could remember their costings. Woman's Hour and the like were damaging, but probably better than long running scrutiny of 'black holes in Labour's finances' type stuff.
4. It would be mad to predict anything at the moment but we should remember Labour went into the 2015 election final week on level pegging with the Tories - and lost by 8%. Even with adjustments to the methodology Labour are now round about 8% behind on an average of the polls. My hunch is that a fair bit of Labour's current polling strength is soft and that the last week will focus on leadership, economic competence and brexit negotiations. My latest random thought is that we will end up with something like a 10-11% tory lead.
((((Bucket of cold water)))) - I'm just off to disappoint some kittens.
yeah - 2015 was a searing experience. But the difference this time is the genuine enthusiasm for corbyn - and the car crash of the tory campaign. It feels different. My money is still on a tory majority of 40ish - but corbyn ending up in number 10 is no longer la la land. Poll are widely divergent - some consistatnly giving the tories a leads as low as 3 points - other consistently have them 12 pts ahead.
Turn out of young people and previous non-voters will be key - as will the willingness of the tory base + brexity types to vote for a distinctly uninspiring candidate. It has strong echoes of Trump and Clinton - but in a good way.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
They'd be right to raise that to be honest. Much as I want there to be grand anti-Tory coalition it's very difficult to see how there could be an agreed Labour-SNP line on brexit, particularly with the indyref2 complications. Needless to say, I don't give a shit about the parliamentary brexit dance that would take place within a grand coalition, but it looks like any area the cons will focus on - 'strong and stable' vs 'the 3 stooges go to Brussels'.
Pedant mode: of course if the non-Tory forces did get a majority, there wouldn't be a formal coalition anyway, or at least not one with the SNP.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Continuing the comparison, I thought Corbyn might have done a bit more to pitch himself/Labour as the party for all those alienated by conventional politicians, those who felt abandoned. In some ways he's the ultimate politician and has been nothing but a politician, but there was still a chance to drink from the well that produced brexit and Trump. Instead of doing a left populism he's tried being the voice of decency, expressed as a nationalisation programme and also in his own demeanour. He's teatotal, but neither has he picked up the symbolic Farage pint.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
that poisoned spring
not-bono-ever
meh
She was in four weddings and a funeral
not-bono-ever
meh
actually there is a very sick joke looming somewhere in that piece of information,. I am not going there
not-bono-ever
meh
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
That face she pulls when she's trying to laugh gives me the creeps. It's like she knows what laughter is and just about understands the vague concept but just can't do it. Like Gordon Brown's terrible attempt at smiling, but malevolent.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
blimey, she was - wtf is an 'aristocracy co-ordinator'?
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
My mother was just on the phone and reports that posters she's seeing - this was in Hereford - don't say "Vote Conservative" they say "Vote Theresa May".
For years, the Tory press have been telling themselves that May is some sort of Big Beast superhero and even some sort of sex symbol (kitten heels, anyone?!?!), but I don't think she comes across terribly well. She's never been challenged before.
At the G7 and NATO summits, if anyone rivalled Trump in the "looking out of place" stakes it was her. And as America drifts further from the international community I wonder how TM's rush to hold hands with the Terry's Chocolate Putin in the White House looks? (This is a bit of a personal interest of mine, but I actually don't think international affairs play that great a role in elections - unless there's a war on.)
All very inconsequential and persoality-based, no doubt, but if the Tories are banking on someone looking Strong and Stable - some Thatcher 2.0 - they'd better get her to start looking, you know, strong and stable soon.
For years, the Tory press have been telling themselves that May is some sort of Big Beast superhero and even some sort of sex symbol (kitten heels, anyone?!?!), but I don't think she comes across terribly well. She's never been challenged before.
At the G7 and NATO summits, if anyone rivalled Trump in the "looking out of place" stakes it was her. And as America drifts further from the international community I wonder how TM's rush to hold hands with the Terry's Chocolate Putin in the White House looks? (This is a bit of a personal interest of mine, but I actually don't think international affairs play that great a role in elections - unless there's a war on.)
All very inconsequential and persoality-based, no doubt, but if the Tories are banking on someone looking Strong and Stable - some Thatcher 2.0 - they'd better get her to start looking, you know, strong and stable soon.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
To entirely personalise it... part of May's problem when campaigning is her material in terms of the manifesto and policies. But the other is she's actually fucking dull. But dull in the way of some braying office gobshite who hasn't quite figured out how unfunny they are. Corbyn himself isn't overly exciting, but probably has a degree of self awareness and plays to his 'dull but worthy and honest' image. He's not an ideal leader for charging round the country enthusing people, despite the size of his leadership rallies. But an election really exposes dreadful May is. When it became clear she didn't know how to eat a chip, the tories probably realised they had a problem on their hands.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
I think that's the most complementary thing anyone has said about her since the campaign started.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
M. Le Guillotine.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
in a very real way, we are all picking up a symbolic pint
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
One brexit, one scotch and one beer.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
the person who stage-managed public executions during the french revolution
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Cid
Proper break this time
She looks like she's about to cough up a hairball.
The Pale King
Well-Known Member
Din't know that!
MightyTibberton
Well-Known Member
She was the funeral.
not-bono-ever
meh
Apparently she sleeps in a coffin filled with the earth of her homeland
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