The 2017 General Election campaign

[redsquirrel]

Actually, while I am aware that the methods of compiling data have changed, I can't find any information on how exactly - does anyone know this?

If it has been weighted to account for the possibility that Labour turnout tends to be lower than polls suggest, it could be that the polls are wrong in the other direction this time. Labour voters seem more highly motivated this time, so changes made after 2015 could be based on an assumption that no longer holds true.

Depends on polling company I think. Pretty much all made changes after 2015 but IIRC different companies made slightly different changes. Not sure if Britain Elects has made some changes to account for the 2015 inaccuracies, probably not as you'd then be double counting.

EDIT: recap here.

Since then polling companies have made changes to try and address that problem. Different companies have taken different approaches. The most significant though are a mix of adding new controls on samples by education and interest in politics and changes to turnout models. We obviously won’t know until the election has finished whether these have worked or not.

 

[Rimbaud]

I don't think you've read beyond the headline - it has fallen by 26,000. They are speculating about a further fall due to the numbers in arrears.

Quite a small fall compared to the huge increase since 2015 though. I reckon those in arrears are likely to be students or people with unstable income who can't have direct debits because it keeps making them overdrawn.

 

[The39thStep]

Elderly retired people, the wealthy, and people in rural areas, do not see these things. I was shocked to find that my Tory voting Grandpa genuinely doesn't understand how hard things have gotten and doesn't know why I just don't get a stable job then buy a house then settle down. The grey vote in particular is quite disconnected from the present reality. In rural areas this will be even more pronounced. Rich people in general are detached from reality.

Most recent surveys actually show that younger people are more economically conservative , whilst being more liberal on other issues, than older people.

 

[kebabking]

Actually, while I am aware that the methods of compiling data have changed, I can't find any information on how exactly - does anyone know this?

If it has been weighted to account for the possibility that Labour turnout tends to be lower than polls suggest, it could be that the polls are wrong in the other direction this time. Labour voters seem more highly motivated this time, so changes made after 2015 could be based on an assumption that no longer holds true.

might be worth sticking this in the political polling thread - its where the nerds hang out - i'm interested as well as only is over-correction a known phenomena in pretty much every field, so why not polling? but i'm a bit mystied about how you reach people (in 2015 it was the 'shy tory') who simply don't engage...

 

[redsquirrel]

Quite a small fall compared to the huge increase since 2015 though. I reckon those in arrears are likely to be students or people with unstable income who can't have direct debits because it keeps making them overdrawn.

It's definitely poor reporting to imply that those in arrears are leavers, we have a bunch of member becoming "unfinancial" every month for our union branch. Get neatly all of them back once they've sorted out direct debit/credit card/whatever, I should imagine such a scenario is seen in pretty every party/group/club

 

[Wilf]

Quite a small fall compared to the huge increase since 2015 though. I reckon those in arrears are likely to be students or people with unstable income who can't have direct debits because it keeps making them overdrawn.

Perhaps I was overdoing it with 'freefall', though it is certainly falling. Yes, massive growth since 2015, which for me is still bewilderingly impressive, but also very frustrating in the sense of not translating into ... much. Interesting to see what happens after the election. The 2015 result saw most of the centre left parties increasing their membership. Have a feeling that won't happen this time, at least for Labour.

 

[bi0boy]

So while I still obviously hope for a Labour victory, it may actually, in the long run, be better if the Tories win this election, otherwise Labour will be blamed for all the shit that's happening. If they do well enough for the left to remain in control of the party, they are well positioned for victory in 2022. (although,of course, a lot could happen in that time...)

That's what people said in 2010, and 2015. The implication being that Labour is only capable of taking over from a successful Tory government and holding its head above water until things fuck up again.

 

[Rimbaud]

That's what people said in 2010, and 2015. The implication being that Labour is only capable of taking over from a successful Tory government and holding it's head above water until things fuck up again.

The situation today is not really comparable to the last 2 elections - Labour is emerging from a civil war, and whoever wins this has to deal with Brexit. Having time to get their internal house in order while letting the Tories reap what they sowed would be no bad thing for Labour in the long term.

 

[chilango]

poor people aren't detatched from the reality of the rich. We tend to be exposed to their reality, their normal all the time. Can we say the same is true in reverse?

I'm not sure that's true.

When I've stumbled into the lives of the actually wealthy from time to time I've found it pretty gobsmacking.

My parents consider themselves comfortably middle-class, they vote Tory. They freely admit they have no clue "how the poor live". They get their views largely from the Daily Mail these days.
I took them around some of the bucolic bits of the home counties recently. They found it really really shocking.

We know that the rich have this different reality, but until you visit their schools, their clubs, their yachts, their homes I don't think the scale of it in comparison to us is comprehendable.

 

[DotCommunist]

I'm not sure that's true.

When I've stumbled into the lives of the actually wealthy from time to time I've found it pretty gobsmacking.

My parents consider themselves comfortably middle-class, they vote Tory. They freely admit they have no clue "how the poor live". They get their views largely from the Daily Mail these days.
I took them around some of the bucolic bits of the home counties recently. They found it really really shocking.

We know that the rich have this different reality, but until you visit their schools, their clubs, their yachts, their homes I don't think the scale of it in comparison to us is comprehendable.

I used to deliver wine coolers. When I visited a place that had a bathroom bigger than my rented room I was...well gobsmacked was about right. With perhaps just a soupcon of resentment
but you are talking about the difference between p/b level wealth and h/b. Yes that can be suprising.

 

[mikey mikey]

Most recent surveys actually show that younger people are more economically conservative , whilst being more liberal on other issues, than older people.

Indeed, the younger generation are really into neo-liberalism. They love the free-market, austerity and tax breaks for the highest earners and really dig cutting benefits for the disabled. Zero hour contracts are groovy and so is having the 8th highest university tuition fees in the world. They fucking love it.The lot of it. I have the data.

Remember that young folk are only irrelevant when they turn up to Corbyn rallies. In such cases they're just naive and probably won't vote.

 

[chilango]

I used to deliver wine coolers. When I visited a place that had a bathroom bigger than my rented room I was...well gobsmacked was about right. With perhaps just a soupcon of resentment
but you are talking about the difference between p/b level wealth and h/b. Yes that can be suprising.

Yeah. I've visited houses where you could fit my entire two bed terrace inside their entrance hall. Not stately homes or anything either. Just houses. I've visited schools with their golf-courses. I knwo of one that has a "winter campus". On piste in Switzerland. I occassionally have to deal with Old Etonians and the like.

Fuck me. It's another world.

It's not "middle-class bastards" with university degrees and mortgages. It's something else.

 

[Who PhD]

This is what the conservatives have prepared for their press conference today, not their own manifesto yet but this document. View attachment 106858

So the Tories are handing, to their dark acolytes and lickspittles, a little red book?

 

[Who PhD]

I don't think you've read beyond the headline - it has fallen by 26,000. They are speculating about a further fall due to the numbers in arrears.

But this is just speculation? 26k, while not ideal, is not exactly what I'd call freefall

 

[Wilf]

But this is just speculation? 26k, while not ideal, is not exactly what I'd call freefall

26k is real, the rest is speculation, let's stick with that. But if Labour membership were to stabilise around say something over 450,000 I'd admit that was still impressive. My point is about what those people have been doing over the last 18 months - or perhaps what the Corbyn team/momentum/local corbynistas have set up. This is probably the wrong thread for all that, but it does have a bearing on the election campaign.

 

[The39thStep]

Indeed, the younger generation are really into neo-liberalism. They love the free-market, austerity and tax breaks for the highest earners and really dig cutting benefits for the disabled. Zero hour contracts are groovy and so is having the 8th highest university tuition fees in the world. They fucking love it.The lot of it. I have the data.

Remember that young folk are only irrelevant when they turn up to Corbyn rallies. In such cases they're just naive and probably won't vote.

Jesus wept

 

[DotCommunist]

26k is real, the rest is speculation, let's stick with that. But if Labour membership were to stabilise around say something over 450,000 I'd admit that was still impressive. My point is about what those people have been doing over the last 18 months - or perhaps what the Corbyn team/momentum/local corbynistas have set up. This is probably the wrong thread for all that, but it does have a bearing on the election campaign.

if it really does go tits up at the election you could do a thread 'post-momentum, post mortem'

try the veal etc

 

[mikey mikey]

This

is rather reminiscent of Smethwick 1964

 

[chilango]

Got a Lib Dem leaflet thru the door today. Personally addressed to me.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Most recent surveys actually show that younger people are more economically conservative , whilst being more liberal on other issues, than older people.

Labour is solidly ahead of the Conservatives with voters under 40 years old, despite being more than 20 points behind in the polls overall, according to a significant new poll.

The mega-poll of nearly 13,000 voters by YouGov conducted over a two and a half week period found Jeremy Corbyn would be heading to Downing Street were the election decided by 18-40 year olds.

Labour is particular popular with women under 40, who split 42 per cent in favour of Mr Corbyn’s party and 27 per cent for Theresa May’s. Twelve per cent support the Lib Dems. Men under 40 also back Labour by 32 per cent to 31 per cent for the Conservatives, with 18 per cent backing the Lib Dems.

Jeremy Corbyn would win the election if only people under-40 voted

 

[JTG]

Got a Lib Dem leaflet thru the door today. Personally addressed to me.

They have your name. That basically means they can claim your soul mate

 

[ChrisD]

Included in these but so is my wife... but they think I'm head of the household Looking at the envelope I read it as GCHQ.
View attachment 106486 [] View attachment 106487

That clever lady Theresa has sent me ANOTHER personal letter. This time she has worked out how to "insert name of candidate here" and managed it 5 times in the same letter. No mention of which party she and her friend James belong to. Clearly aimed at limiting arguements to her or Corbyn. I hope she's running out of money - this time it's on plain white paper signed in black pen whilst the previous was on fancy yellow paper with blue signature. It's almost annoying enough to make me vote for Blairite Ben Bradshaw (but not quite).

 

[mojo pixy]

Jeremy Corbyn would win the election if only people under-40 voted

I read that as Jeremy Corbyn would win the election if only 40 people voted.

 

[chilango]

Jeremy Corbyn would win the election if only people under-40 voted

Is that because they don't join social groups or something?

 

[Dogsauce]

A fb friend (one of several that appear to have got involved for the first time this election) has been out campaigning for Labour today and apparently rail nationalisation has been very well received by commuters they've been speaking to at the local station. It's Shipley though, so they've got a job to do to get Davies out, but quite smart hitting people with a relevant message.

I reckon one thing with this kind of campaigning is that it won't intercept that sizeable chunk of the population who drive to work and shop at big supermarkets/malls, I doubt it's easy to reach those kind of voters in person. Likely to be disproportionately Tory.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Is that because they don't join social groups or something?

Don't get the reference, sorry.

 

[chilango]

Don't get the reference, sorry.

Long running spam saga

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Don't get the reference, sorry.

IS THAT BECAUSE THEY DON'T JOIN SOCIAL GROUPS OR SOMETHING?

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Still none the wiser.

Never mind.

 

[happie chappie]

Wow - for the first time ever I've just been opinion polled about an election. Not sure why I was selected - I should have asked.

Only asked 3 questions:

1) Who was I going to vote for
2) How likely was I to vote
3) Who would make the best PM (only given a choice of Corbyn or May)