The 2017 General Election campaign

[redsquirrel]

I would fucking love it if they lost Sheffield Hallam. Love it

That would be great - I'd even vote Labour their to try and help it happen - but I'm with Cid, if they couldn't take it in 2015 they won't take it now. More likely they'll be a whole load of voters that move (back) to the LDs.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Incidentally that would also be higher than their vote share in 92, 87 and 83, so if they could beat, or equal that, they would have obtained their highest vote share for the last 34 years, bar the two huge wins in 97 and 01.

So highest vote share in 16 years then? I mean, there's cherry-picking data and then there's the quoted post.

Anyway, looks like for this election anyway it's largely back to two parties in England. That vote share with the Tories in the mid-to-high 40s is not good.

 

[redsquirrel]

Oh fuck off you Tory bore, you don't even know a joke when you see one. But I'd sell off the public schools even if I thought it'd lose money.

A (former?) Plaid Cymru bore not a Tory bore danny

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

So TM's handlers and spinscum dreamed up a thing called a "telephone town-hall".

In the US, the town-hall meet is a standard means of politicians encountering electors, it can actually get pretty brutal at times.

"A telephone townhall" is not a townhall in the least. It is a spin/lie for the fucktards.

happily, not everyone was taken in

Theresa May Announces 'Telephone Town Hall' On Twitter, Responses Are Brutal | HuffPost UK

 

[Rimbaud]

Conservatives and UKIP call on each other to stand down in Hartlepool General Election fight

I know that John Tennant pretty well, incidentally, he is the elder brother of someone who was in my class at primary school who I still see around the local pubs whenever I go home. (in Gateshead, not Hartlepool) He is an absolute lunatic, but actually a kind of pitiable figure, I guess he is somewhere high up on the Autistic spectrum. He used to always try and hang out with his younger brother's friends cos he had none of his own and he would always end up aggravating people and turning them against him. Doesn't surprise me at all that the Tories failed to strike a deal with him.

e2a: He is actually only about 30 years old but his hair started to go grey when he was in his mid 20s... I did a search for him to check if the Hartlepool John Tennant was the same one, and sure enough it is, but he looks like he is in his 40s already. He is only a year older than me, shows what joining UKIP does to your body and soul.

 

[Rimbaud]

I've been following Britain Elects' poll of polls on Twitter and there has been a steady creep towards their 2015 figure over the last week. Only a point or two off it last I saw. Still miles away from the Tories but things are weird, we know that

Probably already surpassed it actually. The actual vote share in 2015 was 30.4%, which the polling overestimated. Changes have been made in the way the data is compiled to account for this, so the polling for Corbyn, which is above 30.4%, is probably accurate while the 2015 polling wasn't.

 

[William of Walworth]

Trouble is though, share of the vote becomes less important when Tories are hoovering up almost all of the UKIP votes from last time

 

[J Ed]

I would fucking love it if they lost Sheffield Hallam. Love it

If it was ever, ever going to happen it would have been in 2015. Before it was yellow Tory it was Tory Tory. Take a walk around Sheffield Hallam and you will see why... it's much easier to imagine a Corbyn-led Labour government with a big majority than it is to imagine Sheffield Hallam being won by Labour.

 

[Rimbaud]

Trouble is though, share of the vote becomes less important when Tories are hoovering up almost all of the UKIP votes from last time

Aye. They'll probably get fewer seats even if they get their highest vote share since 1997.

However, there are a lot of things shaping up to be a clusterfuck of epic proportions over the next year, and are largely irreversible. (chiefly, signs that the housing market may be about to crash and looming economic crisis, Brexit-related shambles, possibility of the UK breaking up, and the social effects of austerity and inequality of opportunity coming home to roost) May's popularity is not really deserved and is only made possible by a compliant media, it is unlikely to last long after the election. So while I still obviously hope for a Labour victory, it may actually, in the long run, be better if the Tories win this election, otherwise Labour will be blamed for all the shit that's happening. If they do well enough for the left to remain in control of the party, they are well positioned for victory in 2022. (although,of course, a lot could happen in that time...)

 

[Who PhD]

I think that's a good question and one I've been interested in for a bit - the disjuncture between a neo-liberal consensus, a capitalist realism, lack of confidence in any kind of alternatives - and apparently large numbers of people willing to do something about it. As such, this isn't intended as a pissing on chips post, but in one sense the answer is that it's going nowhere in the short term. Labour will lose badly and Corbyn will either resign or, ultimately, be forced out. It will be very difficult to bring these numbers out for anything after the election and Labour's membership numbers are apparently in free fall.

I suppose the real answer in terms of it going nowhere is that it's going nowhere because it's gone nowhere in the last 18 months. Rallies, a few campaigns, some attempts at organising beyond the party's traditional places (I believe, but haven't seen much of it). Shoehorning 500,000 into the Labour Party hasn't achieved much, it's just been a dispiriting stand off with the right and, more importantly, it hasn't become something else, a social movement or reinvigorated working class politics. There are signs as to what might have been with the reception Labour's nationalisation policies have had, but they don't seem to be shaking the polls. Very hard to see where it goes - whilst the press and commentariat will be yapping away about the need for a new generation of Blairites to lead the party, there's neither the energy, personnel or ideas for that to happen. But equally, it's hard to see an effective social democratic leadership starting the whole thing off again.

You can sign up for my positive thinking classes at....

I see no evidence their numbers are in freefall; they have a considerable membership and seem reasonably popular. Corbyn has a better chance than the cynics here will ever credit. I think these people just want a labour loss because they mistakenly believe that so advance class consciousness. it won't

 

[redsquirrel]

Trouble is though, share of the vote becomes less important when Tories are hoovering up almost all of the UKIP votes from last time

That can work both for and against Labour. For example a significant number of UKIP voters going back to the Tories in safe Tory seats will give them a great vote share but doesn't really benefit them greatly.

 

[Dogsauce]

When things go to shit over the next few years it will just be sold as a need for a 'strong and stable' government to sort things out, so probably no opening for Labour. The press as it stands won't hold the Tories to account for making a mess of things, it's not like they get held to account for spending more than Labour, whacking up VAT (while cutting top tax) and ruining the health service. No accountability.

 

[Rimbaud]

When things go to shit over the next few years it will just be sold as a need for a 'strong and stable' government to sort things out, so probably no opening for Labour. The press as it stands won't hold the Tories to account for making a mess of things, it's not like they get held to account for spending more than Labour, whacking up VAT (while cutting top tax) and ruining the health service. No accountability.

The press will always back the Tories, but will the public buy the "Strong and Stable Leadership" thing when they see a decade of Tory rule ending in farce?

 

[Dogsauce]

The press will always back the Tories, but will the public buy the "Strong and Stable Leadership" thing when they see a decade of Tory rule ending in farce?

It's already in ruins in a lot of places. Maybe people in Tory constituencies don't see the damage, don't see the higher numbers of people on the streets (very noticeable in cities) or the glass scattered on the pavement where some poor sod has had their car window put through by thieves, don't have the boarded shops, crowded casualty receptions. Maybe where they live the police bother to turn up if someone breaks in. Maybe their parks aren't furnished with a few pieces of broken and dangerous play equipment. Maybe their councils can still afford to pay someone to clean up the dogshit. Do they not see these things, or are they wilfully blind to them?

 

[redsquirrel]

Maybe their councils can still afford to pay someone to clean up the dogshit. Do they not see these things, or are they wilfully blind to them?

And when their councils do talk about having to make cuts or raise taxes they get a handout from central government.

 

[Rimbaud]

It's already in ruins in a lot of places. Maybe people in Tory constituencies don't see the damage, don't see the higher numbers of people on the streets (very noticeable in cities) or the glass scattered on the pavement where some poor sod has had their car window put through by thieves, don't have the boarded shops, crowded casualty receptions. Maybe where they live the police bother to turn up if someone breaks in. Maybe their parks aren't furnished with a few pieces of broken and dangerous play equipment. Maybe their councils can still afford to pay someone to clean up the dogshit. Do they not see these things, or are they wilfully blind to them?

Elderly retired people, the wealthy, and people in rural areas, do not see these things. I was shocked to find that my Tory voting Grandpa genuinely doesn't understand how hard things have gotten and doesn't know why I just don't get a stable job then buy a house then settle down. The grey vote in particular is quite disconnected from the present reality. In rural areas this will be even more pronounced. Rich people in general are detached from reality.

 

[Kaka Tim]

When things go to shit over the next few years it will just be sold as a need for a 'strong and stable' government to sort things out, so probably no opening for Labour. The press as it stands won't hold the Tories to account for making a mess of things, it's not like they get held to account for spending more than Labour, whacking up VAT (while cutting top tax) and ruining the health service. No accountability.

We dont know how things are going to pan out nor how people will react. Things change. Opinions change. I think we may well see become ever more divisive with england in particular split between daily mail-esque tory land and labours social democracy.
One thing corbyn's labour may achieve - and arguably already has - is to open up political space on the left, forcing the tories to concede ideological ground in order to keep thier w/c vote.

 

[kebabking]

...Rich people in general are detached from reality.

rich people are detatched from poor peoples reality, just as poor people are detached from rich peoples reality - being poor doesn't mean you are more 'real', it just means you are poor.

if you own your own home, don't receive or depend on benefits, and have a bit of cash in unit trusts or private pensions (for example), then the last decade has been, at the least, not bad. pay hasn't quite kept pace with inflation which may have had some impact on your lifestyle, but the above inflation increase in the value of your major asset (your home), as well as the above inflation increase in the value of your investment assets have covered that and more.

such people, and there are lots of them, are not inflatable, or the product of 3D printing, or the invention of an algorithm, they are as real as you - its just that their circumstances are different, and therefore their perception is different, to yours.

 

[Rimbaud]

rich people are detatched from poor peoples reality, just as poor people are detached from rich peoples reality - being poor doesn't mean you are more 'real', it just means you are poor.

if you own your own home, don't receive or depend on benefits, and have a bit of cash in unit trusts or private pensions (for example), then the last decade has been, at the least, not bad. pay hasn't quite kept pace with inflation which may have had some impact on your lifestyle, but the above inflation increase in the value of your major asset (your home), as well as the above inflation increase in the value of your investment assets have covered that and more.

such people, and there are lots of them, are not inflatable, or the product of 3D printing, or the invention of an algorithm, they are as real as you - its just that their circumstances are different, and therefore their perception is different, to yours.

Fair enough - they are insulated from a lot of shit may be a better way to phrase it.

 

[DotCommunist]

poor people aren't detatched from the reality of the rich. We tend to be exposed to their reality, their normal all the time. Can we say the same is true in reverse?

 

[redsquirrel]

There have been a number of studies that have shown that the rich overestimate things like the median wage, average wage, etc. Not heard of the opposite.

 

[Wilf]

I see no evidence their numbers are in freefall; they have a considerable membership and seem reasonably popular. Corbyn has a better chance than the cynics here will ever credit. I think these people just want a labour loss because they mistakenly believe that so advance class consciousness. it won't

Labour membership expected to fall below half a million

 

[tim]

Corbyn is in pudsey this afternoon. Not a "hipster"/studenty/trendy leftie location by any stretch. Lets see what the turnout is.

Exciting need for Pudsey

 

[Who PhD]

Labour membership expected to fall below half a million

"expected to fall" isn't evidence

 

[Wilf]

I see no evidence their numbers are in freefall; they have a considerable membership and seem reasonably popular. Corbyn has a better chance than the cynics here will ever credit. I think these people just want a labour loss because they mistakenly believe that so advance class consciousness. it won't

... and if the rest of your post is aimed at/includes me, you're wrong. I'm certainly to the left of labour, but don't want them to lose. My line is that there was potential there, but it hasn't been achieved.

 

[bimble]

This is what the conservatives have prepared for their press conference today, not their own manifesto yet but this document.

 

[Wilf]

"expected to fall" isn't evidence

I don't think you've read beyond the headline - it has fallen by 26,000. They are speculating about a further fall due to the numbers in arrears.

 

[kebabking]

Exciting need for Pudsey

its a lovely hotel by the way - The George in Penrith, Cumbria.

food is excellent, beer is good, and the general feel/hospitality of the place is just superb. very reasonable rates as well...

 

[Rimbaud]

Probably already surpassed it actually. The actual vote share in 2015 was 30.4%, which the polling overestimated. Changes have been made in the way the data is compiled to account for this, so the polling for Corbyn, which is above 30.4%, is probably accurate while the 2015 polling wasn't.

Actually, while I am aware that the methods of compiling data have changed, I can't find any information on how exactly - does anyone know this?

If it has been weighted to account for the possibility that Labour turnout tends to be lower than polls suggest, it could be that the polls are wrong in the other direction this time. Labour voters seem more highly motivated this time, so changes made after 2015 could be based on an assumption that no longer holds true.

 

[Wilf]

its a lovely hotel by the way - The George in Penrith, Cumbria.

food is excellent, beer is good, and the general feel/hospitality of the place is just superb. very reasonable rates as well...

Tripadviser >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>