Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

The 2017 General Election campaign

Status
Not open for further replies.
My bad. Great "knocking on door skills" there. Oh, and hitting the pavements.

It's one of the downsides of being the Home Secretary and then PM of a country with the terrorism threat rated at 'severe', rather than a no-mark geography teacher.

May has a pretty good reputation in her constituency for turning up to stuff and hitting the pavements and knocking doors -
but if you think, should he become PM on the 9th June, Corbyn will be hanging around cafés and chatting for hours with randoms you have all the understanding of a housebrick.

Which, I think, we've already established.
 
2t6i7.png
 
Right, anyone doing canvassing/banking got any views of what they've encountered?

first hand from the local government elections, second hand from the GE.

there are undoubtedly some previous abstainers/dissillusioned who are motivated by Corbyn - and they come from every demographic you could point at.

however they are dwarfed by the number he turns off - of those i was able to find who said they would be voting Labour i got the impression that a significant proportion (20%?) were looking for an excuse not to. if it rains, the labour vote will drop like a stone.

the number who said they will be voting Lab is well down on 2010/2015. interestingly, in groups AB it was broadly the same if a little down, but in groups C1, C2 DE it had fallen by between 25 and 45%, with C2 and D at the 45% end of that.

as ever, and as repeatedly suggested by the polling, the economic and social policies were popular - and were popular with those who voted both LD and Tory in 2010 and 2015 - and much more popular than the tory policies with all groups. the reasons for people deciding to take their votes elsewhere are however, well known.
 
first hand from the local government elections, second hand from the GE.

there are undoubtedly some previous abstainers/dissillusioned who are motivated by Corbyn - and they come from every demographic you could point at.

however they are dwarfed by the number he turns off - of those i was able to find who said they would be voting Labour i got the impression that a significant proportion (20%?) were looking for an excuse not to. if it rains, the labour vote will drop like a stone.

the number who said they will be voting Lab is well down on 2010/2015. interestingly, in groups AB it was broadly the same if a little down, but in groups C1, C2 DE it had fallen by between 25 and 45%, with C2 and D at the 45% end of that.

as ever, and as repeatedly suggested by the polling, the economic and social policies were popular - and were popular with those who voted both LD and Tory in 2010 and 2015 - and much more popular than the tory policies with all groups. the reasons for people deciding to take their votes elsewhere are however, well known.
ta - make up and previous results of town if not busy?
 
Right, anyone doing canvassing/banking got any views of what they've encountered?
I spoke to some people a few days ago who have been doing door-knocking. They said that a they think most of the working class UKIP vote is coming back to Labour (on council estates in particular, they said), but a lot of floaters are going to vote Tory because of Brexit or because they don't think Corbyn could be trusted to mind a market stall. Overall, they think there's not much chance at all. We're the type of constituency that would have Jon Snow saying "Labour really need to win in places like this".

ETA: Is was before the accidental manifesto launch that I spoke to them.
 
I spoke to some people a few days ago who have been doing door-knocking. They said that a they think most of the working class UKIP vote is coming back to Labour (on council estates in particular, they said), but a lot of floaters are going to vote Tory because of Brexit or because they don't think Corbyn could be trusted to mind a market stall. Overall, they think there's not much chance at all. We're the type of constituency that would have Jon Snow saying "Labour really need to win in places like this".
Ta as well.

Can we take it as read i'm thanking any future contributions of this type please.
 
as ever, and as repeatedly suggested by the polling, the economic and social policies were popular - and were popular with those who voted both LD and Tory in 2010 and 2015 - and much more popular than the tory policies with all groups. the reasons for people deciding to take their votes elsewhere are however, well known.
Certainly would have been interesting, if the various right wing revolts and attempts to undermine Corbyn hadn't happened, to see where Labour would be now. I don't take it as read that his public sector/renationalisation stance would have put Labour in the lead, but they would have at least been in the game.
 
ta - make up and previous results of town if not busy?

door-knocking was Worcester, Kidderminster, Stourport, Bromsgrove, telebank was Kidderminster, Hereford, Bromsgrove and Gloucester. broadly it was concentrating on core support in terms of SE groups and ward, i saw no evidence of any canvassing in the wards/estates that Labour lost in 2010 and didn't regain in 2015.
 
first hand from the local government elections, second hand from the GE.

there are undoubtedly some previous abstainers/dissillusioned who are motivated by Corbyn - and they come from every demographic you could point at.

however they are dwarfed by the number he turns off - of those i was able to find who said they would be voting Labour i got the impression that a significant proportion (20%?) were looking for an excuse not to. if it rains, the labour vote will drop like a stone.

the number who said they will be voting Lab is well down on 2010/2015. interestingly, in groups AB it was broadly the same if a little down, but in groups C1, C2 DE it had fallen by between 25 and 45%, with C2 and D at the 45% end of that.

as ever, and as repeatedly suggested by the polling, the economic and social policies were popular - and were popular with those who voted both LD and Tory in 2010 and 2015 - and much more popular than the tory policies with all groups. the reasons for people deciding to take their votes elsewhere are however, well known.
This is probably not something you could get much of an impression of. But when you say people where turned of by him. Did you get a sense if they had had much direct experance of listening to Corbyn or was it just the impression they had from media reports?
 
This is probably not something you could get much of an impression of. But when you say people where turned of by him. Did you get a sense if they had had much direct experance of listening to Corbyn or was it just the impression they had from media reports?

of those who went into it undoubtedly the media reports played a large role - however pictures have, i think, played a big role in the public hostility to him. pictures of him with Adams and McGuinness in the 80's, pictures of him at every anti-war or anti-American rally since Jesus was an apprentice etc..

the uncomfortable truth that doesn't fit into the narrative is that Corbyn has been on the national stage for 30 years, and people of my age (42) and older don't need the media to tell us what his views are, and this is amplified massively amongst previously labour voters.
 
of those who went into it undoubtedly the media reports played a large role - however pictures have, i think, played a big role in the public hostility to him. pictures of him with Adams and McGuinness in the 80's, pictures of him at every anti-war or anti-American rally since Jesus was an apprentice etc..

the uncomfortable truth that doesn't fit into the narrative is that Corbyn has been on the national stage for 30 years, and people of my age (42) and older don't need the media to tell us what his views are, and this is amplified massively amongst previously labour voters.
Thanks.
 
of those who went into it undoubtedly the media reports played a large role - however pictures have, i think, played a big role in the public hostility to him. pictures of him with Adams and McGuinness in the 80's, pictures of him at every anti-war or anti-American rally since Jesus was an apprentice etc..

the uncomfortable truth that doesn't fit into the narrative is that Corbyn has been on the national stage for 30 years, and people of my age (42) and older don't need the media to tell us what his views are, and this is amplified massively amongst previously labour voters.

Yeah.

As I'm sure I mentioned on one of the threads Corbyn for me is a memory of "trendy lefty" identity politics in the 80s. No matter how he's portrayed now.
 
18447074_10155196964515833_6882613307174176742_n.jpg


The crowd for Corbyn's speech outside the Brudenell Social club in Hyde Park, Leeds this afternoon in the rain. I'd estimate at least 3-4000 people out there, and another 500 or so probably inside. Not bad for 19 hours notice from the first email on the local party list.

Can't say that I can remember any other political leader in my lifetime who could pull in the crowds and enthuse them in this way. Nor one that could manage an entire speech without me disagreeing with something - most can't manage a sentence.

It's going to be an interesting campaign - the mix of corbyn's old style soap box campaigning in as many places as he can combined with social media to enthuse the base of his support to get out there and campaign on the door steps vs Theresa May's stage managed media spun approach.

Fair play to Corbyn though, he's clearly a man on a mission this election. I wonder if he can actually inspire enough of the 'don't vote' generation to vote to prove the pollsters very wrong.

Footnote... Hillary Benn failed to make an appearance or warrant a mention at it despite this being right on the border of his constituency, the Leeds NW candidate was fronting this.
 
18447074_10155196964515833_6882613307174176742_n.jpg


The crowd for Corbyn's speech outside the Brudenell Social club in Hyde Park, Leeds this afternoon in the rain. I'd estimate at least 3-4000 people out there, and another 500 or so probably inside. Not bad for 19 hours notice from the first email on the local party list.

Can't say that I can remember any other political leader in my lifetime who could pull in the crowds and enthuse them in this way. Nor one that could manage an entire speech without me disagreeing with something - most can't manage a sentence.

It's going to be an interesting campaign - the mix of corbyn's old style soap box campaigning in as many places as he can combined with social media to enthuse the base of his support to get out there and campaign on the door steps vs Theresa May's stage managed media spun approach.

Fair play to Corbyn though, he's clearly a man on a mission this election. I wonder if he can actually inspire enough of the 'don't vote' generation to vote to prove the pollsters very wrong.

Footnote... Hillary Benn failed to make an appearance or warrant a mention at it despite this being right on the border of his constituency, the Leeds NW candidate was fronting this.

The hipster vote is sewn up then, if they do actually vote, one issue, many students will vote in their home towns, diluting their impact.

btw, I wonder if the media will show this, they usually just do close up shots.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom