Privileged people calling less privileged people "stupid" doesn't seem to be working...

[bimble]

Means we can't have snobbery, but we still can't tolerate racism or misogyny.

Yes. Well meaning people being ready to excuse the most blatent expressions of this as inevitable byproducts of neo-liberalism / globalisation is not going to help.

Also - the areas in the UK that have gone the furthest right in elections all seem to be pretty affluent as far as I can see.

An estimated 70% of Tory party Members voted to Leave the EU. I have been struggling to figure out how this fits the narrative.

 

[brogdale]

Does it?

How many more "shock results" are we going to need to get this?

Significant sample size.

 

[butchersapron]

Tory party members are not an area and 70% of 140 000 on a 70% turnout is sweet FA - not a significant social trend. As for voting leave being an indicator of far right politics...well, nothing ever seems to be learnt does it?

 

[inva]

seems a very dangerous situation where anti racism/anti sexism etc get tied to the neoliberal right, while anti neoliberalism gets tied to the conservative right

 

[rubbershoes]

No. Unless you think women, people of colour and LGBT people don't get educated

You think they're Trump's core supporters?

 

[inva]

An estimated 70% of Tory party Members voted to Leave the EU. I have been struggling to figure out how this fits the narrative.

I have no idea what narrative suggested a majority of tory member didn't support leave? I never heard one that's for sure

 

[bimble]

Tory party members are not an area and 70% of 140 000 on a 70% turnout is sweet FA - not a significant social trend. As for voting leave being an indicator of far right politics...well, nothing ever seems to be learnt does it?

I didn't suggest anything about leave = far right politics. Just that Tory Party members overwhelmingly voting leave doesn't fit the portrait of leave voters being people calling out for change.

 

[butchersapron]

seems a very dangerous situation where anti racism/anti sexism etc get tied to the neoliberal right, while anti neoliberalism gets tied to the conservative right

Progressive neo-liberalism is eating the left alive through lesser evilism right now. Just like we said a socially liberal politics not tied to significant economic redistribution (from either above or below - obv the latter better and would of necessity be tied to a social movement based on solidarity and collective perspectives). No way out on the political level without making a break.

 

[butchersapron]

I didn't suggest anything about leave = far right politics. Just that Tory Party members overwhelmingly voting leave doesn't fit the portrait of leave voters being people calling out for change.

In reply to stella saying (incorectly) that the areas that have gone furthest right have been the most affluent you post that 70% of troy party members voted leave - and you didn't mean to suggest that voting leave was far right?

 

[LDC]

There's as much a cultural break in direction/outlook needed in the left, that while not of course unconnected to the political perspective, is IMO one that might be harder to deal with.

We need to move from an introspective, sub-cultural, low ambition, activist focused scene to a class based, massively ambitious, problem solving, organized movement.

Answers as to how to do this on a postcard please...

 

[bimble]

In reply to stella saying (incorectly) that the areas that have gone furthest right have been the most affluent you post that 70% of troy party members voted leave - and you didn't mean to suggest that voting leave was far right?

I meant to suggest that simple explanations based on underpriviledged people voting for change / anti-establishment may not be fit for purpose.

 

[ViolentPanda]

There's as much a cultural break in direction/outlook needed in the left, that while not of course unconnected to the political perspective, is IMO one that might be harder to deal with.

We need to move from an introspective, sub-cultural, low ambition, activist focused scene to a class based, massively ambitious, problem solving, organized movement.

Have you heard of a man called Trotsky?

Ducks, gets coat, leaves.

 

[Mr Moose]

Progressive neo-liberalism is eating the left alive through lesser evilism right now. Just like we said a socially liberal politics not tied to significant economic redistribution (from either above or below - obv the latter better and would of necessity be tied to a social movement based on solidarity and collective perspectives). No way out on the political level without making a break.

Agreed, but how to do it without getting skewered on economic 'irresponsibility'?

 

[LDC]

Have you heard of a man called Trotsky?

Ducks, gets coat, leaves.

Given that most of my 'anarchist' friends seem to have joined the Labour Party recently, maybe that wouldn't be such a surprise move.

 

[CrabbedOne]

I know several people who voted for Trump. Or rather voted mainly against another Clinton Presidency. They really hated Bill's terms; I recall one of them telling me the sight of Bill made him nauseous. They'd soured on the Bush dynasty by the end of four more years. They saw the anti-Bush Obama as the affront liberals intended him to be. They could not believe it when he got a second term. I noticed their circles trending from Birther to 9-11 Truther. Now they've elected an anti-Obama convinced that even Trump with his evident limitations would be better than Hillary. Fundamentally they don't really believe anything good can come out of DC so why not? These are not red necks; all smart college educated country club types. And yes that's a whole lot of stupid but it all just got steadily twisted out of shape.

The "low information" voters trotting along behind the gaudy Trump circus to make up the numbers are often just suckers. They won't get an even break off The Donald either. That is not the way he rolls.

 

[danny la rouge]

Agreed, but how to do it without getting skewered on economic 'irresponsibility'?

Don't have the conversation via the traditional media.

 

[sihhi]

View attachment 95230

Significant sample size.

The turnout on the bottom level for Clinton would be much lower than the turnout at a step above.

It seems clear that old dying heartland industrial USA went nationalist-protectionist Perot in 1992, Trump in 2016.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Who is lauding it as a victory?

Its a defeat.

But its not the defeat for Clinton we should be worried about.

Its the defeat (or failure) of "the left" to provide the vehicle for an utterly predictable revolt that we should be concerned about.

Not sure which 'left' you can blame for that. The only remotely left dem candidate was Sanders. Not getting him on the ticket is what has led to this. The situation could have tipped the other way. It was the 'right' ie clinton et al who fucked it.

 

[brogdale]

The turnout on the bottom level for Clinton would be much lower than the turnout at a step above.

It seems clear that old dying heartland industrial USA went nationalist-protectionist Perot in 1992, Trump in 2016.

Have you seen that sort of data?

 

[redsquirrel]

Need to give them a reason why progressive politics is for them.

But is it? 'Progressives' lined up behind Clinton, someone who promised more the same, rather than Sanders, someone who ran on a platform of attacking trade deals/banks etc.

Progressive politics is currently lining up behind a vote LibDem campaign in Richmond, the same party that less than two years ago was part of the coalition that but hundreds of thousands into poverty.

 

[sihhi]

Have you seen that sort of data?

Nearly all research on western democracies with mainstream candidates sees participation decreasing as income decreases.

I have seen it over the years too.

 

[tommers]

Election 2016: Exit Polls

Here are lots of stats for you all to chew over. Some of them seem a bit redundant but there you go

 

[redsquirrel]

Don't have the conversation via the traditional media.

Indeed, seemed to work for Trump and Vote Leave.

 

[sihhi]

The far and away biggest swing on that exit poll of income is 16% swing to Rep away from Dem on the lowest income grade.

Data by education seems interesting aswell:

Overall High school or less
45% Dem
51% Rep

White without a college degree
28% Dem
67% Rep

Nonwhite without a college degree
75% Dem
20% Rep

 

[brogdale]

Nearly all research on western democracies with mainstream candidates sees participation decreasing as income decreases.

I have seen it over the years too.

Yeah, but turn-out data is just that, turnout data. The % breakdown of those voters is at issue.

 

[redsquirrel]

The far and away biggest swing on that exit poll of income is 16% swing to Rep away from Dem on the lowest income grade.

Where are you getting the swing from, sihhi?

EDIT: Seen from the link above.

So it's like I said in post #41 which bimble didn't think was worth replying to, Clinton may still be getting a majority of votes but Trumps taking a far bigger proportion than Romney did.

Be very useful to see the same data over the longer term.

 

[bimble]

This is interesting too:
The two top concerns amongst people who voted Trump were Immigration & terrorism, significantly more important than the economy.

 

[brogdale]

The far and away biggest swing on that exit poll of income is 16% swing to Rep away from Dem on the lowest income grade.

Data by education seems interesting aswell:

Overall High school or less
45% Dem
51% Rep

White without a college degree
28% Dem
67% Rep

Nonwhite without a college degree
75% Dem
20% Rep

That speaks more about race as a variable, though.

 

[sihhi]

Yeah, but turn-out data is just that, turnout data. The % breakdown of those voters is at issue.

What do you mean?

I mean that in most elections - general or local - fewer of those on low incomes cast votes compared to those on middle or high incomes.

 

[Treacle Toes]

The far and away biggest swing on that exit poll of income is 16% swing to Rep away from Dem on the lowest income grade.

Data by education seems interesting aswell:

Overall High school or less
45% Dem
51% Rep

White without a college degree
28% Dem
67% Rep

Nonwhite without a college degree
75% Dem
20% Rep

What do you find interesting about these figures? In the context of this thread specifically.