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Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

Egypt is my second destination, since an array of subsidies come up often as one of the huge challenges facing the government there. All the usual sources describe the Egyptian subsidies as unsustainable, yet the sizeable poor population there seems unlikely to make huge cuts politically feasible. But Egypt has other financial problems and keeps talking to the IMF, with the usual anticipation of grotesque budget cuts as a result, so who knows what will actually happen.

Perhaps the first indications emerged just a few days ago when the new industry minister announced that some new cement factories wont be getting the traditional fuel subsidies, and this will gradually be applied to existing businesses.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCon...-to-phase-out-energy-subsidies-for-heavy.aspx
 
... and for another because of the dependency of both PV and wind generation on rare-earth elements, which are of limited availability - even before China announced export restrictions because its rare earth minerals are running out.

Rare earths are not rare or running out.

How rare are rare earths? Rare earths have sometimes been compared to diamonds in their scarcity. Yet, there is nothing rare about rare earths other than the moniker in the name that was given to them. The term “rare earths” was coined to describe a relatively little-known, little-used group of elements, at the time. There is an estimated 99,000,000 metric tons of RE reserves throughout the world. Unfortunately, the name stuck and the public and media lacking a basic understanding of the origin of the name, have embraced this moniker and its implied rarity ever since.

http://www.magneticsmagazine.com/main/articles/rare-earth-myths-debunked/
 
So the Egyptian people have had a revolution against their old rulers followed by their new rulers getting ready to bow down to the IMF. They will regret this in the long term.
 
To me, this kind of blocking out of massive areas of unused space and dedicating it to energy production is a very likely future. The Empty Quarter is larger than France, and it really is empty - there really isn't much of a lot of consequence going on there in terms of life, certainly nothing whose disappearance is likely to adversely affect anywhere else.

I did some relevant maths here.

Renewables currently supplies about 1% of global energy demand.

Set aside, for a moment, the inconvenient fact that most of the things we need energy for (food production, and the global transportation subsystem required to sustain the industrial manufacturing system renewable energy system manufacture depends on) don't and can't run on electricity, and that this is a hypothetical question with no practical relevance to the civilisation we happen to live in.

Existing renewable generating capacity would have to double in size seven times. But the power generating capacity necessary to power the manufacturing system to provide that generating capacity would have to increase 2,560 times (assuming a solar EROEI of 3 - this number rises to infinity as solar EROEI falls to zero, which it does as its own gross input energy demand rises as manufacturing switches from hydrocarbon powered to renewable powered).

But we still need the power that has been diverted from the array into the array's own manufacturing process (it was currently being provided for free by hydrocarbon, remember). So increase the size of the array by the amount required to power its own manufacture. We are talking here about the entire industrial manufacturing system's requirement, not the trivial amounts solar enthusiasts account for in their estimates of EROEI after casually assuming the existence of the (hydrocarbon powered) industrial manufacturing system.

But that needs more manufacturing power, which needs more array, which needs more manufacturing power. Repeat that geometrically expansive recursive loop a few times in your head, then retire to have a think about how easy things were (and how small mobile phones could get) when all you had to do was stick a straw in the ground and suck out EROEI 100 hydrocarbons.

Now recall that many of the resources critical to the array's manufacture (particularly rare earth elements used in their various electrical and electronic subsystems) are already approaching exhaustion*. Expansion of generating capacity ceases at the point of exhaustion of the scarcest critical resource. Most of the systems (energy system, financial system, transportation system, manufacturing system, food system, law and order system, etc.) that would have been required to develop substitutes for scarce resources require the energy system to be functioning for their own functioning. In systems theory terminology, the array is both a "single point of failure", and a self terminating failure. The array never gets built.

Set that aside, and assume you could manufacture the array, carefully noting that none of the raw materials required by that manufacture are found near your array, and the transportation system necessitated by that fact doesn't run on the energy format of your array's output. The part that serviced our current energy demand would be a square about 100km on each side. (The part that serviced the grid's own manufacturing and operational energy requirement would be a square very much larger in the short term, and infinitely larger in the long term. Set that aside, too).

Note that power losses getting power from the array are in proportion to transport distance, and you are now transporting over colossal distances. Build some more array to cover that loss. Build some more to power the steel, copper, and aluminium mining, refining, and manufacturing systems required by the distribution infrastructure (and for the vehicles required for the ore mining, and for the factories they are built in. Oh, and for the industrial oxygen manufacturing facility for the smelting. In fact, for a bunch of stuff.) See above.

The elements of the array have to be accessible for construction, maintenance, and repair, via some sort of access infrastructure. Assume you can access elements 500m either side of a road. Then to access all the elements, build a (100km x 100km) 10,000 km road structure, associated construction vehicles and infrastructure, and access vehicles. Build some more array to power the global industrial manufacturing system required by that. See above.

Now spot that global power demand is increasing about 2% per year (unless you feel like telling the 80% of the planet that consumes 80% less than you otherwise). Do the whole thing again in 35 years time. Probably need to start that now (the existing system took 100 years to build) i.e. build two systems concurrently - one at the rate imposed by the uninvested depletion rate of the petroleum system (i.e. 7 year half life) since you can't invest in propping up the petroleum system AND its replacement simultaneously in a financial system on the verge of collapse. Meanwhile, set aside that the global system is already in energy deficit before we divert a substantial fraction into energy infrastructure replacement manufacture, noting that we have historically replaced the dominant energy system before its saturation, ensuring sufficient margin to power its replacement while sustaining the existing system.

Then build twice as much again in the following 35 years. And four times as much in the 35 years following that.

The issue isn't finding a nice, empty spot.

* Rare earth elements are not rare because they cannot be found. They are rare because they are (now) found in concentrations that require more refining energy than the energy upgrading equipment they are required for can deliver. In the parlance of resource scarcity, they lie "below the energy horizon". This is thermodynamics 101.
 
Probably worth talking about fuel cells at this point.
It probably isn't.

You can go a long way in thinking about the energy predicament by recognising this simple fact: hydrocarbon is the concentrated distillation of millions of years of sunlight falling on hundreds of millions of acres of forest and algae, supplied in a highly dense, stable and transportable format, in which all of the manufacturing energy has been supplied by quintillions of joules of geothermal energy.

Hydrocarbon is a time compression machine. In each year, we use millions of years of solar energy, and supply (effectively) no energy in the energy manufacturing process.

We now need, in each year, to live off one year of solar energy, derived from orders of magnitude less surface area, supplied in an essentially unstorable and untransportable format, while supplying all of the energy in the energy manufacturing, storage, and transportation processes.

There are societies in which that is possible. Whether a society of 7 billion, half of whom eat food that depends on a continuous supply of fossilised sunlight can, is at best highly debatable. Either way, there will be far too little energy to waste.

Hydrogen is not an energy source. It is an appallingly lossy energy carrier. In that context, hydrogen (and therefore hydrogen fuel cells) would only be of interest if large accumulations of hydrogen existed, comparable in energy terms to the hydrocarbon accumulations upon which we have lived for a century, reproducing the "millions of years of energy per year" effect.

They don't. We need to make the hydrogen, either in advance, or as it is consumed (i.e. in a fuel cell), and that requires and dissipates large amounts of energy.

For as long as we have access to "millions of years per year" hydrocarbons to make it, we can ignore the loss and they appear to work. When we fall back on "year per year" energy sources to make it, we can't ignore the losses and they don't.

To put another way: to take the power output of a solar/wind/whatever grid which already won't meet our needs, and throw half of it away making a hydrogen energy carrier, would be suicidal.

The quicker one grasps this essential property of the hydrocarbon system, the quicker one can intuitively grasp the fundamental limitations of any conceivable substitution proposition.
 
Just because its no good doesnt mean its not worth talking about. I never said it was a source of energy, and the conversion losses and low energy density are two of its biggest flaws (along with it corroding steel and having safety issues). I probably only thought to mention it now because people were going on about boats, and it could certainly be used for that.

I dont agree that its sufficient to look at this kind of thing only from the angle of our total energy availability. Format is also important. For sure ideally we dont want to waste precious electricity by losing a load of it in conversion, but this will be balanced against the nature of certain needs, not just total volume of energy needs. If we want some shipping once conventional liquid fuels have dwindled to very low levels, a process of turning electricity into a liquid or gas fuel will still seem attractive, even if its 'a waste' its still better than nothing. Flexibility at a price, and for certain applications that price may still be considered worth paying.

For sure it is easy to take this concept too far and make a mockery of everything as a result, so my opinions on this stuff should be taken in conjunction with the fact that I a not expecting business as usual. I am not expecting our shipping to remain at current volumes, or for it to make sense to ship a lot of the shit we currently do from China under circumstances where the cost of the shipping is much higher than today. All manner of things currently considered important to our lives & economic activity will not make much sense in a future where energy is seen to be much more precious. A new order of priorities will emerge, but when this still leaves some requirement for some things to be shipped via sea, I see no reason to think we would write off options just because they bear little resemblance to how cheaply and massively we can do those things today.
 
I probably only thought to mention it now because people were going on about boats, and it could certainly be used for that.
I understand, only it can't actually be used for boats in the sense that it offers some kind of alternative to hydrocarbon. It is still just a device for converting chemical energy into electrical energy, and doesn't solve the problem that we don't have any colossal stores of chemical energy lying around any more. Meanwhile, it gets regularly trotted out by people (not you) who cannot distinguish reliably enough between technology and magic to understand what it can't do.
 
But that needs more manufacturing power, which needs more array, which needs more manufacturing power. Repeat that geometrically expansive recursive loop a few times in your head, then retire to have a think about how easy things were (and how small mobile phones could get) when all you had to do was stick a straw in the ground and suck out EROEI 100 hydrocarbons.

I dont think most of us here need any lectures about how easy things are now compared to how they will be when we are well down the curve.

However I do take issue with your loop as discussed in the first part of your post, because you are describing a situation where the arrays are being built off their own backs, rather than in a situation where we do actually still have hydrocarbons left that could be used to provide power for this mission.

Now spot that global power demand is increasing about 2% per year (unless you feel like telling the 80% of the planet that consumes 80% less than you otherwise). Do the whole thing again in 35 years time. Probably need to start that now (the existing system took 100 years to build) i.e. build two systems concurrently - one at the rate imposed by the uninvested depletion rate of the petroleum system (i.e. 7 year half life) since you can't invest in propping up the petroleum system AND its replacement simultaneously in a financial system on the verge of collapse. Meanwhile, set aside that the global system is already in energy deficit before we divert a substantial fraction into energy infrastructure replacement manufacture, noting that we have historically replaced the dominant energy system before its saturation, ensuring sufficient margin to power its replacement while sustaining the existing system.

Its not about what we feel like telling 80% of the planet. Our own growth will not be preserved either, and only the few optimists here think that growth rates in general will continue in the manner to which we became accustomed. Energy deficiencies and lack of margin are reasons why people dont expect the transition to be business as usual, but thats not the same as claiming it simply cannot happen at all.

I see your '7 year half-life' stuff has raised its head again. I wont repeat my prior arguments with you over this in full, but I still think mentioning this can be misleading unless you are prepared to be very clear about when the clock starts or started on this. i.e. when exactly we reach a point where both sorts of investment can no longer be done simultaneously. We've already got a situation where both are happening despite the financial crisis. Im not claiming this is sustainable or that either are being done at a rate that ultimately yields enough fruits to meet our needs, but I am saying that I havent found a moment where it is clear that the timer you are using should be activated.

For example I do not have much trouble imagining that the capital for investment in both propping up the old energy systems as much as possible, and building new ones, really wants to rush towards these tasks. An expectation of future energy scarcity and high energy prices makes it an attractive investment. The issue of affordability shifts from finding the capital to invest, to questions about whether people will have the ability to actually pay for the energy at those prices, or rather quite how much demand there will actually be at those prices compared to current demand. As it seems somewhat inevitable to me that the future will involve less consumption of energy, that much of the problem will be tackled on the demand side, Im not really surprised that the schemes we've seen invested in already are only shaping up to deliver a fraction of our present needs.

Dont get me wrong, what I've just said is probably why I too do not take very seriously some of the massive-scale renewable projects that offer the promise of providing supply equivalent to what we've known. I'm not an optimist who expects we can imitate the old systems with the new ones, but I still leave room for schemes that are pretty ambitious in scope and could provide a backbone with which to suport a relatively sophisticated system and ways of life. Just because they wont be as bloated as the present ones doesnt mean we are going back to the stone-age.
 
I understand, only it can't actually be used for boats in the sense that it offers some kind of alternative to hydrocarbon. It is still just a device for converting chemical energy into electrical energy, and doesn't solve the problem that we don't have any colossal stores of chemical energy lying around any more. Meanwhile, it gets regularly trotted out by people (not you) who cannot distinguish reliably enough between technology and magic to understand what it can't do.

Helpfully that magic seems to have been in short supply since the last hype cycle on this front ended. Although it was still good to see renewed attention given to this and other technologies in the 2002-2007 period, I do not miss the greenwashing and bullshit of that era. I wonder if we will get another round of it or whether the economic narrative will continue to dominate.

Mind you its not like I am finding the financial crisis era very easy to deal with. I've always been more interested in the demand side than the supply side, expecting that this will be where a big chunk of the action is, but when its presented to us as a story detached from energy its rather frustrating to say the least. I dont expect to be heating my bath water by burning a banker in future, and so the present mainstream narrative and its spectacular inability to even start a sensible conversation about growth and the future drives me batty.
 
I think there is a false premise behind most of your posts, Falcon, which is that a post-oil system would need to be similar to the oil-based system. You conclude - reasonably - that such a system could not work, but you don't really consider ways in which the current system can change in order to be supported in a post-oil world. I agree with elbows that we're likely to have rough periods ahead as the system changes, but such changes can happen - and will have to happen.
 
I dont think most of us here need any lectures about how easy things are now compared to how they will be when we are well down the curve.
Well, at least one chap here posts pictures of choo-choo trains and Star-Trek boats in what I believe is intended as a refutation of your statement. The format of forums makes it hard to be always clear whom you are addressing.
However I do take issue with your loop as discussed in the first part of your post, because you are describing a situation where the arrays are being built off their own backs, rather than in a situation where we do actually still have hydrocarbons left that could be used to provide power for this mission.
We are already in energy deficit. Global food prices rose 10% last year, in part because we have started converting it into liquid fuel. We are printing money at frequent intervals to maintain the illusion of viability of the financial system, without which it will not be possible to finance the "mission". And any arrays you build will wear out and require replacement - if the arrays cannot be built off their own backs, then what is the logic behind diverting hydrocarbon from other vital tasks to construct them in the first place?
Its not about what we feel like telling 80% of the planet. Our own growth will not be preserved either, and only the few optimists here think that growth rates in general will continue in the manner to which we became accustomed.
Then you concede that the global economic system must fail, since monotonic growth is its critical stability criterion. There can be no projects at any scale larger than a small village without it.
I see your '7 year half-life' stuff has raised its head again. I wont repeat my prior arguments with you over this in full, but I still think mentioning this can be misleading unless you are prepared to be very clear about when the clock starts or started on this.
It's not my 7-year stuff. It's the IEA's. If you believe you understand the situation better than they do, then so be it. Meanwhile, there is no "clock". At every given moment, there is a non-investment depletion rate. That depletion rate increases with time. In the timeframe we are considering here, it will have risen to 10% per annum. 10% per annum is a (70/10) 7 year half life. I can't keep explaining it to you.
i.e. when exactly we reach a point where both sorts of investment can no longer be done simultaneously. We've already got a situation where both are happening despite the financial crisis.
They are not happening despite the financial crisis. They are happening because we are dumping colossal quantities of synthetic fractional lending debt based finance, the effect of which is eroding the value of existing viable debt and propelling the system rapidly towards collapse. We are already beyond that point in real terms - the current situation is an illusion.
 
I think there is a false premise behind most of your posts, Falcon, which is that a post-oil system would need to be similar to the oil-based system. You conclude - reasonably - that such a system could not work, but you don't really consider ways in which the current system can change in order to be supported in a post-oil world. I agree with elbows that we're likely to have rough periods ahead as the system changes, but such changes can happen - and will have to happen.
I think, in turn, that there is a false premise behind your posts. "They have to happen, therefore they will happen".

It is the difference between extrapolative forecasting and normative forecasting - bottom up, and top down. Normative forecasting creates some picture of a future: "We need to live off solar arrays. Lets build lots".

Extrapolative forecasting starts from where we are and asks: "Where can we get to from here?".

You can have a society of 7 billion people who eat hydrocarbon, and builds solar arrays with it. You can have another kind of society that lives off solar based agriculture. It doesn't necessarily follow that 7 billion hydrocarbon eating people can develop a society that lives off solar based agriculture.

It is very easy to create visions of the future that are entirely self consistent, but which are completely inaccessible from here. Ask anyone 150 miles from a petrol station and who would have the continent at his feet if he could get there, but who has only 100 miles of petrol in his tank.
 
I don't advocate simplistic solutions, though. Perhaps you misunderstood my point about solar energy - and I was thinking about solar-powered turbines, primarily, btw. I asked the question to see what kind of scales are possible. Any solution to post-oil society will necessarily involve thousands of changes from the way we live now. But each of those changes deserves individual attention, too, to see how it fits into the whole. We also need to move over to non-oil agriculture, and to examine how that would look. As I understand it, it would be far more labour-intensive than current farming methods, so there's a system change required right there, moving more people back to working on the land in one way or another. But that deserves a whole thread to itself, really.
 
Then you concede that the global economic system must fail, since monotonic growth is its critical stability criterion. There can be no projects at any scale larger than a small village without it.

I probably wouldnt have been too interested in peak oil in the first place if I didnt think it would lead to various systems failures and radical change. Most of my disagreements with you are about the precise timing and scope of collapse. We can both shout 'its too late', but with great variations in terms of 'too late for what exactly?'

It's not my 7-year stuff. It's the IEA's. If you believe you understand the situation better than they do, then so be it. Meanwhile, there is no "clock". At every given moment, there is a non-investment depletion rate. That depletion rate increases with time. In the timeframe we are considering here, it will have risen to 10% per annum. 10% per annum is a (70/10) 7 year half life. I can't keep explaining it to you.

I'll get back to you on this another day since last time we argued about this it wasnt very fruitful and we were mostly talking at cross purposes. I certainly dont have very much reason to doubt a range of IEA figures these days, not since they started to get real in the last 5 years or so.

They are not happening despite the financial crisis. They are happening because we are dumping colossal quantities of synthetic fractional lending debt based finance, the effect of which is eroding the value of existing viable debt and propelling the system rapidly towards collapse. We are already beyond that point in real terms - the current situation is an illusion.

I suppose the point I am trying to get at is do not underestimate how much can be done even when the numbers are a fudge and great swathes of the system are illusory. I often go on about some future moment where the term sustainability will gain its teeth, when unsustainable things cannot be sustained for a moment longer. My hesitancy in trying to pin this time down in concrete is due to the power of illusions, and the ability of humans to still do meaningful progress despite of, or indeed because of, glaring omissions, contradictions and bogus balancing acts. That much of it is built on false hopes and premises does not change the fact that such mechanisms can and will be used to direct human effort towards specific goals, and that human effort is real enough. Our capacity to do certain things will diminish, but if we avoid rapid destruction due to war etc then our capacity does not fall off a cliff overnight, and even a much diminished capacity can still be put to use on a grand scale.
 
The propellors are driven by electric motors.

The Queen Mary 2's power plant comprises both four sixteen cylinder Wärtsilä 16V46CR EnviroEngine marine diesel engines generating a combined 67,200 kW (90,100 hp) at 514 rpm, as well as two General Electric LM2500+ gas turbines which together provide a further 50,000 kW (67,000 hp) all of which is converted into electricity used to power electric motors which drive the propellers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Queen_Mary_2

Yes it has diesel engines to generate electricity but these can be substituted for an alternative such as hydrogen fuel cells.
 
Yes it has diesel engines to generate electricity but these can be substituted for an alternative such as hydrogen fuel cells.

Say "batteries" instead of fuel cells and see how much more ridiculous this sounds.
 
And a way of generating the Hydrogen.
There is research into producing it on industrial scale using water and solar energy. The wiki page for hydrogen links to a pdf of a progress report by one of the labs looking into it. The principle is sound - the cost-effectiveness not yet, but such is the way with all new technologies.
 
No. Really. It can't.

You don't understand how a hydrogen fuel cell works, do you?
It can't currently, and of course, currently, hydrogen is produced from hydro-carbons. But as ever, this statement is not a definitive statement at all about what may be possible in a few years.
 
There is research into producing it on industrial scale using water and solar energy. The wiki page for hydrogen links to a pdf of a progress report by one of the labs looking into it. The principle is sound - the cost-effectiveness not yet, but such is the way with all new technologies.
The amount of energy you get back from burning the hydrogen is substantially less than the amount of solar/wind/hydrocarbon energy you expended refining the hydrogen.

The only reason you would want to do that is because the hydrogen acts as a (very poor) store of solar/wind/hydrocarbon energy.

If you have a choice, you employ the solar/wind/hydrocarbon directly.

Solar EROIE, even excluding the energy cost of maintaining the global industrial manufacturing system it is the product of, is too low to maintain industrial society. Including it, it is negative (i.e. an energy sink). Halving it again by routing it through a lossy carrier (like hydrogen) renders it dysfunctional even by the more relaxed energy accounting standards of solar's proponents.

I think stating that the principle is sound is unwarranted by thermodynamics.
 
Yes, and as I've said before, finding better ways of storing energy in ways that can be transported is at least as big a problem as finding ways of producing it sustainably. But all ways of storing and transporting energy will lead to losses. Every centimetre you send electricity along a wire leads to loss.

The principle is sound in the sense that making hydrogen from water using solar energy is possible.
 
Yes, and as I've said before, finding better ways of storing energy in ways that can be transported is at least as big a problem as finding ways of producing it sustainably. But all ways of storing and transporting energy will lead to losses. Every centimetre you send electricity along a wire leads to loss.

Better to stick some batteries in your pocket whenever you pass the power station.
 
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