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Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

And there is wildlife ffs.

There is wildlife, adapted to the extreme conditions, and losing some of that wildlife would be a price to be paid. Virtually nobody lives there, and there are large sections in which nobody at all lives.

So there would be large blocks both there and in the Sahara that could be allocated for electricity generation. Other areas could become nature reserves. This isn't so different from what humans have done elsewhere - destroying the existing habitat to make way for farmland.
 
I don't know whether we agree. I'd have to know what kind of figures we could be talking about with large-scale desert electricity generation before I could judge whether the damage it would cause is a price worth paying. What is unrealistic, imo, is any idea that a sustainable future for a large human population would not involve any kind of controlled habitat destruction.
 
Ok, ta. Going by their calculations, the total area needed (from all the sources detailed) is far smaller than I would have suspected - the big red block. Potentially, just a relatively small proportion of the most extreme areas of desert could be needed.

800px-DESERTEC-Map_large.jpg
 
World energy consumption was 132,000 TWh (2008)

An area 100 miles x 100 miles in Arizona can produce 4200 TWh (USA electricity production 2008)

Empty Quarter is 250,000 square miles

Therefore Empty Quarter can produce 25x4200 TWh = 105,000 TWh

World energy consumption is 132,000 TWh

So 80%

Minus roads and other infrastructure so say 50%
 
It'd be like a magnet to anyone with a gripe about anything. .
I agree. There are potentially huge security concerns. And I agree that ideally we need decentralisation. But if there are heavily populated parts of the world with no sustainable way of generating energy within their own borders, some kind of centralisation becomes necessary. Better ways of storing and transporting electricity would be needed to solve those problems.
 
We need Monbiot's benign world government, to oversee this energy super-station, and to fight the inevitable wars against those pesky Tuaregs.
 
We need Monbiot's benign world government, to oversee this energy super-station, and to fight the inevitable wars against those pesky Tuaregs.
What would be needed, I would think, would be stronger local structures that could then combine effectively at a higher level of cooperation. Key to international cooperation isn't a strong top, imo, rather it is a strong bottom.
 
It's never gonna happen, for one because of security concerns.
... and for another because of the dependency of both PV and wind generation on rare-earth elements, which are of limited availability - even before China announced export restrictions because its rare earth minerals are running out.
 
... and for another because of the dependency of both PV and wind generation on rare-earth elements, which are of limited availability even before China announced export restrictions because its rare earth minerals are running out.

Gonna have to start mining asteroids sharpish...
 
... and for another because of the dependency of both PV and wind generation on rare-earth elements, which are of limited availability - even before China announced export restrictions because its rare earth minerals are running out.
There are different ways of using the Sun to produce electricity. Solar-powered turbines are another.
 
There are different ways of using the Sun to produce electricity. Solar-powered turbines are another.
Yes, solar thermal & steam turbines are the only technology that would be remotely feasible.

I think it would be better to stop dicking about with such fanciful schemes and focus our efforts on Thorium, which is an abundant material and the generation plant would slot into existing distribution infrastructure.
 
Better ways of storing and transporting electricity would be needed to solve those problems.

Probably worth talking about fuel cells at this point. I need to update my knowledge on this, so will spend a few hours on it this afternoon and report back. In the meantime here is a brief and probably sloppy history of this stuff:

Oil shocks of the 1970's provided an opportunity to at the very least start mainstream discussions about a very different energy future. One of the main 'business as usual' supposed solutions that came out of this thinking was that the 1980s would involve a transition to a hydrogen economy. The impetus to make this happen faded as oil etc prices and availability went in quite a different direction for many years, one that pretty much killed off serious transition planning & development until this century. But before that happened they did the easiest stuff, such as reducing the most easily tackled forms of inefficiency and waste in certain sectors, switching to different fuels where it was relatively trivial to do so, and in the case of countries like the UK killing off our heavy industries and moving certain energy burdens elsewhere.

That period did not last long enough to take the potential technologies far enough that we could get a proper sense of whether they would eventually be able to do the job on the scale necessary. But it did last long enough to get some sense of some of the challenges, and this century all this stuff came alive again and provided the opportunity to see whether the hydrogen economy dream was any nearer to actually happening this time around. Bush threw a lot of money at fuel cell development, and we started to get quite a lot of mainstream hype about the use of fuel cells in consumer gadgets and vehicles. This hype seems to have greatly diminished in recent years, at approximately the same time that a giddy round of corporate & government climate-change greenwashing seemed to come to an abrupt end. Or perhaps this stuff didnt end, but simply become well integrated into the broader mainstream narrative of whats 'normal' now, and all that ceased was having it as such a high-profile additional layer of propaganda. Either way, when we hear of electric cars these days its more likely to involve traditional battery technology than fuel cells.

What has prevented hydrogen & fuel cell technology from quickly becoming a no-brainer transition that the systems of today could rush to embrace as a suitable substitute? Well hopefully I can answer this better in a few hours, but my historical understanding is that even leaving aside issues of cost, there remain fundamental problems with both the generation of the hydrogen and its storage. Childhood memory suggests that the 1980s hydrogen economy was banking on nuclear fusion for hydrogen generation, and we know that dreams of successful & scaleable fusion have remained unfulfilled, with hope of cracking this now much diminished. On the storage side the fuel cell industry is not yet profitable, but there has been an increase in use of fuel cells as a backup power source for a variety of fixed installations. But as its the transport sector that most requires a new kind of flexible and portable energy storage medium, thats where we need to see progress, and the signs still dont look very promising to me. They've got issues of safety, and of storage capacity. Its not impossible to imagine us coming to terms with these issues, but its certainly preventing a hydrogen economy from being the kind of thing thats a no-brainer that can be substituted for the existing hydrocarbon fuels with no big issues other than the sheer cost of converting the infrastructure.
 
A brief outline of some hydrogen supply & demand issues:

On the demand side its also used to produce ammonia for fertiliser. Also used in processes that can extract various qualities of hydrocarbons from some of the crappier stuff we are pumping or scraping out of the ground these days. So even without a new hydrogen economy, demand for hydrogen is growing.

On the supply side the bulk of hydrogen production at this point seems to involve natural gas, oil or coal. Obviously not solving the big issues at all if that remains the case, and one of the things I'll be looking at later is what issues there are with using electrolysis on a large scale instead.
 
Doesn't seem worth a new thread so I'll stick it in here - what do our resident environmentalists think of the miners' struggle going on in the Asturias in Spain? Subsidies are being cut, from what I've seen justified by the need to cut CO2 emissions due to climate change, and so the miners are losing their jobs. They're not exactly overjoyed by this and so are occupying and doing some impressive stuff with home made grenade launchers and common or garden explosives.

Now, my instinctive reaction is to support them, and I maintain that this is a healthy instinct. But someone I know (a socialist who's normally pretty good on this stuff) is as good as taking the EU/Spanish government side on this, claiming that IT HAS TO STAY IN THE GROUND (he actually typed it in shouty capital letters on facebook lol).

I hope the miners win. It would take a lot to persuade me that this isn't just thinly disguised "austerity" and I find it difficult to believe that as a result of this less coal/fossil fuels will be used. My guess is that reasonably well paid miners in Spain will be replaced by super-exploited miners in some central African hell hole or something. But he's not a cunt and he's normally spot on with this kind of stuff so I'd be interested to hear what people like free spirit and bernie gunther think about it.

Personally I think environmentalists who consider themselves progressive are on extremely dodgy ground if they start taking the side of the EU against striking workers. I suspect that, even if they're scientifically correct and it would reduce emissions a bit, it risks completely discrediting them politically. Taking this kind of position can only reinforce the already well entrenched belief that environmentalists would gladly kill off the working class to save dolphins or something (it's not a belief I subscribe to before people get offended but it's definitely out there and fairly common).

Thoughts?

Environmentalists progressive? I think environmentalism is right wing and generally in tandem with the idea 'market forces' must dictate economics and political policy. It's why the Greens are such hippie pricks and can only get elected in Islington on Sea.

'Peak oil' isn't simply about geology/extraction vs demand/consumption. It's about the failure of the modern political/economic system, just the same as CDO3s, east Detroit and the Eurozone et al...if i didn't make myself clear earlier.
 
Environmentalists progressive? I think environmentalism is right wing and generally in tandem with the idea 'market forces' must dictate economics and political policy. It's why the Greens are such hippie pricks and can only get elected in Islington on Sea.

I know what you mean, although I dont think I'd put it quite like that, especialy as some flavours of environmentalism are certainly not in alignment with market forces.

The Green party is too far from actual power to judge properly. Its kind of easy to assume they are either hippies or a environment-focussed version of the lib dems, but a look at their last election manifesto revealed plenty that was more along the lines of socialist stuff. But I cant sensibly judge them by their words since they can take all sorts of decent-sounding positions, safe in the knowledge that their stance will not be tested by the realities of power.

As for the wide array of people who could be called environmentalists or who are fascinated by subjects such as peak oil, take your pick from a broad palette of stances and motivations such as:

Hippies.

Animal lovers, including those who may hold animals in higher regard than humans.

Haters of empires, corporations, certain ideologies and economic systems, or other related aspects of the status quo. They may see peak oil or other energy/resource/environmental disasters as either a damning indictment of these forces that they hate, or the means by which these forces may end up killing us all, or the weaknesses which will eventually bring these hated enemies to their knees, broken and obsolete, robbed of their life-blood, setting us free.

Those with a great interest in certain industries, sciences, systems, data, who think they have noticed numerous warning signs in the data that will surely impact in a massive way eventually, so lets not kid ourselves eh.

People with either rational or irrational fears about human 'progress', especially on the social, economic and scientific fronts.

Those who reckon the scale of the world is just too bonkers and imagine a simple correction where total population must drop greatly. Depending on their politics they may be fearful of this possibility, or cold and matter-of-fact about it, or may actually relish the prospect, or some uneasy mixture of all these things and other baggage I wont bother going on about now.

Some with more personal fears, whether it be for their childrens future, or NIMBY environmentalism brought about simply by a development that threatens their own neck of the woods. Or those who treat their own bodies like a temple and may be hyper-alert to the risks of various forms of pollution or chemicals in the food chain that may threaten their own personal health.

Fans of certain specific energy technologies, who get excited about the prospects of these things and get driven crazy by the fact it isnt happening on a scale grand enough to feed their hopes and expectations. And given that some of the barriers to progress on these fronts is due to the status-quo, it is easy to maintain faith in the tech of choice, failures can all be blamed on the orrible old hydrocarbon forces getting in the way, or market farces. This enables the avoidance of conclusive testing as to whether any fatal limitations that are not merely caused by the follies of humankind exist, eg ones down to physics, ones that will scupper the dreams of scaling these technologies to the level required.

Those with an interest in the rather extreme sorts of consumption we have built into life in many parts of the world and turned into our baseline expectation, and the equally extreme contrasts between this way of life and the poverty many still live in.
 
World energy consumption was 132,000 TWh (2008)

An area 100 miles x 100 miles in Arizona can produce 4200 TWh (USA electricity production 2008)

Empty Quarter is 250,000 square miles

Therefore Empty Quarter can produce 25x4200 TWh = 105,000 TWh

World energy consumption is 132,000 TWh

So 80%

Minus roads and other infrastructure so say 50%
Leaving aside the environmental habitat issues (most desert life has evolved to live largely in shade so ironically there may be a small benefit to such organisms), the logistical issues of giant PV plants would be enormous. Take for instance the Desertec megaplant idea:

1) Where is all the material to build this stuff going to come from (rare earths*/silicates/Aluminium/Copper/Steel)?

2) How much of our increasingly diminished power resources are going to be spent to build such things (bearing in mind we have little to no 'overhead' as it is for such a massive construction programme)?

3) Where is all of the material required to build the road/rail/housing infrastructure for such a project going to come from (bitumen/gravels (plenty of sand though, innit ;) )/concrete/steel/Copper/Aluminium/Glass/rubber/etc)?

4) Once built, how much resources (including water) will be devoted to maintenance of such a facility?

5) How and where will the vast army of maintenance staff (and possibly their families) be fed, housed, watered and transported to/from/around this megaplant?

6) As mentioned previously, who is going to be able to secure a site that encompasses 640,000 square miles (assuming a site 800 x 800 miles) and, again, how will they be fed, watered and billeted and what means will they use to patrol such a vast area?

On paper, mega PV looks like a winner but once everything else is factored in, it looks 'problematic' to say the least. Decentralisation of the power supply is definitely a way forward (along with others) but what with rampant NIMBY-ism, and that fact that we are leaving it pretty late in the day to sort this problem out means that it's going to be pretty touch-and go for the next few decades (barring some mega game-changing technological fix which is yet to materialise)...

(*there is promising research into PV with minimal to no rare-earth involvement, but can't dig out the reference at the moment)
 
Following up on my earlier hydrogen stuff.It didnt take much research before I remembered why I hadnt bothered going on about this stuff for ages. Hydrogen is just so crap in so many ways, the fact that its sometimes been touted as the replacement to great swathes of the hydrocarbon economy is a worrying sign. Its not impossible to imagine it being used quite widely one day despite its numerous flaws, but I would assume it would be for a more restrictive range of applications than are touted by its biggest fans at times of maximum hydrogen or fuel cell hype.

Personally if we must have a situation where we are looking for a way to convert some of our electricity into a transport fuel, I'd prefer it to be a liquid that doesnt have too corrosive effect on pipelines etc, and that doesnt need to be stored at interesting pressures or temperatures. Im not looking for a solution thats as cheap as oil has been, or that has the same energy density, for many applications the world can live with an alternative thats worse on these fronts, its better than nothing.

But the potential liquids in question often tend to make the link between energy, fossil fuels and food rather more obvious and morally unpalatable, as soon most recently and obviously with biofuel stuff. Well it appears to be equally so when considering turning hydrogen into a fuel for some practical reasons, eg turning it into ammonia. Hydrogen is already turned into ammonia to use as fertiliser, so if you start using the ammonia as a transport fuel in a big way you are back on the dodgy moral ground where one persons right to drive a car is pitched against anothers starvation rather too obviously for comfort. I think we would be better off acknowledging the links between energy and food at all times, and be left with nowhere to hide, no ability to pretend some solutions are much better than others or that one form of waste or overconsumption does not always rob us in some way of essential systems capacity. But we arent at that point yet, and so its still possible to avoid confronting the links on some levels. Even those of us who no longer underestimate the scope of the links between fossil fuels and food production, are probably not yet used to routinely talking about electricity and food in the same breath. Electricity has tended to exist as a energy concept in its own well defined world, and even when it starts to show signs of being used in transport it doesnt stray all that much beyond that world so long as its good old fashioned batteries being used. But as I hope this waffle has made clear by now, I'm thinking these barriers are shattered when we think of using electricity to produce a gas or liquid fuel.

As for why the hydrogen economy hasnt leapt into the foreground for long this century despite several years of hype, I can certainly see why the old hydrogen economy dream had an attachment to nuclear. Hydrogen via electrolysis has a woeful share of total production because the cost is not competitive against hydrogen obtained from the likes of natural gas, so theres been no reason to try scaling it up. If the nuclear realities of either fusion or fission had come close to the nuclear bullshit of very cheap electricity, the grand hydrogen project would have stood at least some chance of getting off the ground. If such things had materialised then eventually it may have been that all the downsides of hydrogen were not enough to get in the way of actually building the infrastructure and switching various classes of vehicle over, that the sums just about added up and it was better than nothing.

Personally my mind always wanders back to the demand side for certain forms of transport such as the car. I dont have any problems imagining a transport system that successfully fulfils vital needs in 2050. I do have a problem imagining a system in 2050 that is directly comparable to the one of today.
 
I wonder if I can do a really brief tale of whats happened during the lifetime of this thread by looking at it from just one angle:

War, terrorism, climate change, oil price starts to rise.

Then a rapid shift, from the mainstream climate change peak of the Live Earth concert in July 2007 to a variety of indications that showed bits of the economy and system were starting to go pear-shaped over the course of 2007. And oil and other commodity prices becoming rather interesting.

By 2008 the drama and implications of this scenario combined with a very slow increase in mainstream attention towards peak oil that had been intermittently visible for a good few years, to the point that there were occasional days where the frot pages of the odd newspaper might suggest we were now living in a world where peak oil had been fully admitted to the mainstream.

But of course what happened next was quite different and left this partial-admittance of the oil issue in something of a semi-visible limbo. Its been obscured by various economic narratives ever since, something plenty of people on this thread noted at the time it was happening, including at least one person who had predicted such a phenomenon years earlier. I cant remember who it was.

Never mind, I've long been droning on that the economics and demand side is where much of the action is anyway, put crudely one fix for overconsumption is to price people out of it one way or another.

But anyways, as part of this brief nostalgia trip that did not have time to dwell on the strange feelings felt when hearing Richard Branson warning about peak oil or Noel Edmonds warning about blackouts, may I draw attention once more to the way the Gordon Brown Saudi Oil conference thing was discussed in the press. That brief moment in 2008 when it seemed like some powers that be may be publicly embracing peak oil, still holding back somewhat but so much closer, only for attention to rapidly be turned elsewhere almost the moment he finished speaking. Including by himself by soon after visiting north sea oil facilities and making the usual ambiguous 'job creation by increasing production' statements that enable completely inaccurate headlines about increasing oil production from the north sea to be generated and muddy the waters.

So yes, back to 2008...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/23/oil.saudiarabia

Demand, not speculation, at heart of oil shock, says Brown

· PM urges producers to put profits into renewables
· Opec blames markets for causing surge in costs

In his speech, Brown offered a long-term deal whereby the oil-consuming nations would diversify energy supplies, moving into nuclear and renewables, and the oil-producing countries would increase production, as well as recycle some of their huge profits into western renewable technologies. Brown has stated that oil producers have earned $3tn in extra profits from the latest oil shock. He also revealed Britain will host a follow-up summit in London, to build the shared analysis of what he described as the biggest problem of the world. The meeting will probably be held in October.

Brown told the conference that in the short term there was a clear need for extra oil production. "All of us need credible future commitments on increased oil supply because, even with the further action we propose to tackle climate change, demand for oil will continue to be strong over the medium term," he said.

He claimed the new deal between nations he is suggesting could bring an end to "the zero sum game between producers and consumers" from which no one would benefit. He insists the world has to address not just short-term under-production of oil, but the long-term boom in demand likely to come from China and India, a surge that requires the west to look for new sources of secure energy.
He said: "We have had the credit crunch, we have had food prices rising very fast, we have had a trebling of oil prices, which is creating a huge amount of stress because of its effect on petrol, gas and electricity and the follow-through to the rest of the economy.
"This is the third great oil shock in three decades, but this is the worst oil shock because of the severity of the rise in price, and the unpredictability and volatility in the markets."
 
Blimey, I had forgotten quite how close he came, quite the feat considering he didnt go anywhere near mentioning production declines and instead framed the whole thing in the form of increasing demand in developing nations.

I mean check out this guardian piece he wrote in May of that year:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/28/gordonbrown.oil

Peak oil in all but name that one, as close as we've come to it from politicians to date anyway.
 
Oh dear, I just went back to page 55 of the thread to see what we were saying at the time of Browns oil comments, and it seems I went from hope to cynicism within a day. And that I've probably been doing little other than repeat myself since then, so for more than 4 years now, sheesh no wonder I bore myself. Anyway I was kind of enjoying skimming around that time period on the thread, especially as bigfish was still here with his abiotic oil & other energy thoughts that were rather exotic shall we say. But then I noticed a story I'd linked to, no longer available on the CNN site, which apparently included a comment the USA made about wanting developing countries to cut their fuel subsidies. I should probably take a look at what has happened to fuel subsidies since then, certainly heard about cuts in some places, sometimes in conjunction with uprisings.
 
Nigeria is my first destination on this tour of fuel subsidies.

Between 2009 and 2011 the cost of fuel handouts rose sixfold, but not because of the price of oil or other such fundamentals, but because of corruption on an impressive scale. They tried to get rid of the subsidy as a result, but protests caused them to reinstate half of it. It does not sound like there is money in the right place to fund the subsidies till the end of the year.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/19/nigeria-fuel-subsidy-scheme-corruption

I could not say whether another smell lurks behind the smell of corruption.
 
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