Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

[ferrelhadley]

doom.

As any teenager who has read Tolkien will tell you 'doom' is not apocolypse, but fate.

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

I... erm... I think I love you, fh.

-

Just a quick note (as much for myself as anyone) about a new book due out soon which looks to be somewhat relevant to Bernie's original post:

Fuel on the Fire by Greg Muttitt

Fuel on the Fire reveals for the first time how the USA and Britain have sought to reshape the country's oil industry, at a terrible cost. Most Iraqis strongly oppose their designs, and want oil production to remain in Iraqi hands. Remarkably, a popular campaign -- all but unreported in the West -- has so far succeeded in blocking the oil plans. But this struggle, and the attempts to impose an oil agenda by force, are dragging Iraq into ever deeper violence.

Iraq expert Greg Muttitt will take the reader behind the scenes of the occupation to answer one of the war's most pressing questions: what is happening to Iraq's oil? Fuel on the Fire examines Iraq's prospects under the new US administration of Barack Obama -- published as the post-election hopes of 'victory' or 'withdrawal' begin to fade, and as Americans ask: Why are we still in Iraq? Why are things not improving?

http://www.randomhouse.ca/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9781847921116

Due out March 22nd 2011.

 

[Random]

Good stuff

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

That sort of thing can be a little 'heavy', though, Random.

Best to break up your reading with a little comedy fiction occasionally... This just out (9th Nov - click on pic for exec sum .pdf):

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/​

Chris Vernon (clv101) graphed their predictions from 2000 to date (for lulz):

​

Someone else noted that the trend is that the joke is getting less funny over time...

To be fair, though, the report includes this amazing quote:

If governments put in place the energy and climate policies to which they have committed themselves, then our analysis suggests that crude oil production has probably already peaked.

How far we have come, eh..?

More analysis of to gory details over on TOD.

 

[free spirit]

thanks for that graph BB, good to see you kicking around again btw

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

Cheers, fs. Good to see you still here, too.

I just started a thread in UKPP forum relating to the UK and peak oil, in case anyone's interested...

Trying to reach a wider audience, as it were. I'd reckon 3 hours before it's buried by petty sectarian bitching, tho.

 

[kyser_soze]

Peak Oil is the fault of the trots

BTW BB, thx for those links for Connections! Haven't dled them yet, but ta.

 

[goebfwai]

Interview With Chris Martenson: "Prepare For Peak Oil While There Is Time"
By Alexander Ac, 16 November, 2010, Energybulletin.cz
http://www.countercurrents.org/martenson161110.htm

The Age Of Cheap Oil Is Over, by Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed
16 November, 2010, New Statesman
http://www.countercurrents.org/ahmed161110.htm

 

[ferrelhadley]

Hydrogen powered aviation still born.

 

[Crispy]

Was a stupid idea to start with, it just doesn't have the energy:volume ratio.

 

[elbows]

Even though this article is written about emissions, I think it belongs here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11799073

Carbon emissions fell in 2009 due to the recession - but not by as much as predicted, suggesting the fast upward trend will soon be resumed.

Broadly, developed nations saw emissions fall - Japan fell by 11.8%, the UK by 8.6%, and Germany by 7% - whereas they continued to rise in developing countries with significant industrial output.

The end of the article is fun, note that we have now reached a point where our climate ministers can talk sense.

Speaking last week at a meeting of Indian and British business leaders aiming to develop joint clean energy projects, UK climate minister Greg Barker conceded this was the missing ingredient.

Fundamentally, he said, the question was "whether a transition to a low-carbon economy is compatible with continued economic growth - and no-one knows the answer, because no country has made the transition yet".

 

[Dr Jon]

It's Official: The Economy Is Set To Starve

 

[Backatcha Bandit]

A bit of really sad news, I'm afraid...

I heard earlier this week of the passing of Dr David Fleming, who died peacefully in his sleep while visiting a friend in Amsterdam last Sunday night.

David was (amongst other things) one of the founders of the Ecology Party (later became the Green Party), the originator of 'Tradable Energy Quotas', an exceptional educator and a fierce advocate of 'Systems Thinking'.

He was among the most intelligent people I have ever met, yet he possessed a humility and receptiveness to new ideas, together with a fundamental sense of fairness which earned him nothing but deep respect from those that encountered him.

I remember a few years back, after going for a couple of post-lecture pints with him, feeling as if I had just been 'mind probed' by some sort of extra-terrestrial intelligence - it had taken him about 2 hours to extract, refine and summarise pretty much everything I had learned from my years working in the renewables sector.
Apparently, the book he had been working on for a number of years (entitled: ‘Lean Logic: a dictionary of environmental manners') will be published. I'll post a link when it is.

Rob (Transition) Hopkins posted his favourite quote of David's in his obituary piece (linked above):

“Localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative.”

A truly wise person. I, for one, will miss him.

Rest in peace, David.

 

[ferrelhadley]

I heard earlier this week of the passing of Dr David Fleming, who died peacefully in his sleep while visiting a friend in Amsterdam last Sunday night.

Nice bloke, gave really chatty cheerful lectures, although the subject matter was a bit bleak.

The oil megaprojects page has some really really weak numbers pushing out towards 2015
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects

Given about a 5 year lead time for a big new drill project, that is likely to translate into dropping C&C proudction figures. Two caveats, Saudi with perhaps a bit of spare capacity and if Iraq can substantially increase capacity.

But we are not going to see an increase in oil prodction before 2015 and may lose 2-5 million barrels a day.

Peaks poking its head round the door.

Edited to show crunch time.

Not much spare capacity for all those new consumers in the East.

UK Petroprotests AHOY.

 

[elbows]

Looks like some people who were very focussed on the exact peak, rather than the overall trend, and may have gotten a bit too comfy with ideas that 2005 or 2008 were the peak, may be eating their words this year:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7327

If the economy doesnt die on its ass again the coming months that is!

 

[Crispy]

A million here and there isn't much to talk about. If we see growth rates like we were seeing before 2005, then I'll be convinced that we are nowhere near the peak. Otherwise, it looks we are still on the plateau and ready to drop off the other side.

Bear in mind that the 'total liquids' peak that's being reported here isn't the amount of crude coming out of the ground, but includes biofuels, refinery byproducts and other miscellaneous stuff.

It would be better to track net energy content of extracted liquids, but that's even harder to work out.

 

[elbows]

Yeah, Im not disagreeing with that. I gave up trying to get a complete & detailed picture from the available data, preferring to look at wider trends over time. What happened to the price a few years ago spoke volumes to me, and I watch with interest to see what the price does this year, given its just managed to hit $91 I think.

 

[Crispy]

Impossible to predict. I think it will go higher, but not as crazy high as it did last time - the economy isn't strong enough. And it therefore won't have as strong a negative effect as the last spike. Beyond that, who knows...

 

[ferrelhadley]

A million here and there isn't much to talk about. If we see growth rates like we were seeing before 2005, then I'll be convinced that we are nowhere near the peak. Otherwise, it looks we are still on the plateau and ready to drop off the other side.

Bear in mind that the 'total liquids' peak that's being reported here isn't the amount of crude coming out of the ground, but includes biofuels, refinery byproducts and other miscellaneous stuff.

It would be better to track net energy content of extracted liquids, but that's even harder to work out.

That is why C&C is the better figure than all liquids, which includes coal to liquid as well.

But in terms of the new 'peak', we have had 10 year of high and higher oil prices to fund exploration and new developments. We have had nearly a year of high prices to encourage all pumps into the hands and quota busting. We are now just equalling the all liquids and pressurising the C&C totals. But we have less new oil coming online for the next three years. If there is growth in the economy, espcially Asia that will mean more demand.

Limits to growth and all that.

 

[Crispy]

And lo, they're discussing exactly this measurement problem at ToD today! http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7349

 

[ferrelhadley]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40811733/ns/business-oil_and_energy/

OPEC seeking to make friends with the US driver.

This is going to drive up UK consumer inflation and put big pressure on interest rates.

Edited to add, Norway has cut 4.4 billion barrels of its reserves (that with $90 oil) and its production estimate for this year by 4%

We are now monitoring the platue for the decline.

 

[elbows]

Ahh wikileaks...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

However, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, met the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and told the US diplomat that Aramco's 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached.

According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil".

The US consul then told Washington: "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."

I havent covered everything with these quotes so take a peek yourself, pun intended.

 

[elbows]

Here is the most relevant cable:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/oil-saudiarabia

OK then, he doesnt view himself as part of the peak oil camp, yet he thinks price was due to demand meeting supply rather than other distortions, predicts a global plateau within 5-10 years of 2007, says new discoveries are insufficient relative to the decline of the super-fields, etc etc.

 

[ferrelhadley]

The al Sauds remind America which side their bread is buttered.

But is this them just talking it up to calm the market?
Is this them opening up storage and emptying the tankers they have sitting of the coast?
They have hit above 10 million in the past (one of three countries to do so IIRC USSR, USA and KSA) so is this coming from shuttered in capacity or over production by increasing flow rates beyond safe and damaging reservoir?
They seem to be claiming they are opening the taps on Khurais. Hmmm what about Haradh III then?

And taking into account domestic consumption, they are rising at something like 6% a year. The free goodies from the King of Humanity (35 billion giveaway) is not excatly going to stifle demand locally..... what does this mean for their net exports?

Hope people have taken the time over the past few years to make themselves less oil dependent.

Offcourse good time for a supply shock. US refinaries (and European ones) are going into shutdown and maintenance mode prepairing for the switch to summer blend as demand for heating fuel and winter blended petrolium drops so this is the time of a bit of a lull in the physical market, time for stuffing spare capacity into tankers or shutting the well down for a bit of a once over.

 

[elbows]

The uprisings in the middle east present an opportunity to argue for a proper transition, evoking the spectre of a '1970's style oil shock':

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/mar/03/chris-huhne-oil-prices-green-economy

This is the moment to invest in green infrastructure, homes and transport, according to Huhne. Fossil fuels are now the costly, high-risk option for energy: it is "crazy" not to prepare for a low-carbon future.

 

[ferrelhadley]

West Texas Intermediate closed at $104 and Brent at near $115.

The world is rolling out hybrid and electric cars and everyone is selling low mpg models, airlines are struggling. Yet the oil producers cant turn on the pumps and push the price down to kill the competition. 2 million barrels a day dissapears from a world struggling with growth where even China is down to 7% and we still break 100. Having said that you have to expect Manifa in Saudi to be getting back up to full speed even as we speak, in theory opening the US strategic reserves should flush enough new oil onto the markets till Manifa is running.

On the other hand the great hope of maybe another 3 mbd was Iraq and insurgents bombed their biggest oil refinery last week.

 

[ferrelhadley]

The uprisings in the middle east present an opportunity to argue for a proper transition, evoking the spectre of a '1970's style oil shock':

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/mar/03/chris-huhne-oil-prices-green-economy

So Huhne argues that $90 is wrecking the condem economy but $148 oil had nothing to do with the issues faced by the Brown economy. But we are far less dependent on oil for our economy than we were in the 70s. We have made huge strides in decoupling to a degree. In part as we are less dependent on heavy industry and in part because we no longer do things like burn oil for heating or electricity.

 

[Kaka Tim]

So Huhne argues that $90 is wrecking the condem economy but $148 oil had nothing to do with the issues faced by the Brown economy. But we are far less dependent on oil for our economy than we were in the 70s. We have made huge strides in decoupling to a degree. In part as we are less dependent on heavy industry and in part because we no longer do things like burn oil for heating or electricity.

But you cant seperate Uk energy use from global energy use. UK - and much of the more developed world - may have less heavy industry than in the 70s - but the heavey industry is still there in other parts of the world and serving the europe and the US.

Powering your car via electicity rather than petrol doesn't really count for shit - the electricity comes from the gas burning power station instead - and gas prices will go up with oil prices due to greater demand.

Ever growing global energy is still overwhelmingly dependant on Oil and gas - and the more developed society the potentaily bigger impact of an energy crisies becasue we are so dependant on imports from the rest of the world - far more than at any time in the past.

 

[elbows]

Powering cars by electricity does count for something, so long as the nuclear agenda goes into full swing, and once a large percentage of the vehicles on our roads make use of it, both of which will take quite some years. Its no magic solution to all of the broader woes, but its certainly one of a number of big issues that needs tacking.

 

[laptop]

Powering cars by electricity does count for something, so long as the nuclear agenda goes into full swing

But there isn't enough recoverable uranium to fuel the sort of nuclear programme that'd make a huge dent, using current reactor technology.

That implies breeder reactors. Which keep not working - sometimes spectacularly.