Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

[Shevek]

Thanks b.a.y.b that has made me pause and think a minute

 

[two sheds]

yep good link bb, i'd not seen that before

 

[kyser_soze]

I wonder if 'Connections' is lurking around on torrent somewhere...

 

[Shevek]

I hope we can invent nuclear fusion and also fly into space at nearly as fast as light speeds.

 

[kyser_soze]

Fusion won't take us anywhere near c speed, sadly. It'd open up the solar system for sure, but interstellar flight you'd need to start looking at matter/anti-matter or something even more exotic to get close to c. Then you've got problems with inertia, acceleration limits and time.

Also, we don't need to 'invent' fusion, we 'just' need to be able to make a sun in a bottle.

 

[spacemonkey]

I hope we can invent nuclear fusion and also fly into space at nearly as fast as light speeds.

Don't hold your breath.

Also, we don't need to 'invent' fusion, we 'just' need to be able to make a sun in a bottle.

Isn't there a quote along those lines - "we want to put the sun in a jar, problem is, we don't know how to make the jar".

Or something.

 

[two sheds]

Isn't there a quote along those lines - "we want to put the sun in a jar, problem is, we don't know how to make the jar".

Or something.

We should try to put the sun in a panel, then we could call it an errrm how about 'solar panel'.

 

[Shevek]

Some people on this thread seem to think civilisation is just going to collapse (and there is something compelling about their firm belief this will happen) yet some people seem to think we can have some sort of more or less manageable transition.

 

[elbows]

Some people on this thread seem to think civilisation is just going to collapse (and there is something compelling about their firm belief this will happen) yet some people seem to think we can have some sort of more or less manageable transition.

Thats because there are so many factors, the main one as far as Im concerned being how people and governments react. Even if the doom is almost inevitable, there are a number of different ways it can play out. And the timescale has many question marks too, that dictate just how bumpy a ride it will be.

Clearly I dont think there is going to be a mostly pain-free, easy transition. And at this stage here is no indication at all that most people are aware of whats to come, or that they will come to terms with it without going nutty. And I think its pretty likely that nations will start scrabbling for position rather than working together, and that could really accelerate the decline via the old beasts such as war. Nuclear weapons throw an interesting spanner into the works of that old coping mechanism.

So I really wouldnt expect to find a prediction that you can place a lot of faith in at this stage, beyond 'this century is going to see massive change' and most complacent certainties will be gone within a generation.

 

[Shevek]

I would rather become instant toast in a nuclear war than have to scrabble for survival in some hurricane-katrina x 10,000 scenario.

 

[elbows]

Id rather scrabble for survival myself, at least until I was eventually drained to nothing by the horror.

 

[spacemonkey]

Id rather scrabble for survival myself, at least until I was eventually drained to nothing by the horror.

I miss the days when the future was something to look forward to.

 

[Shevek]

The sci fi novel The Disposessed looks at Earth from the perspective of the Cetian race. Earth has used up all its resources and is run by an ascetic centralised Buddhist world-state.

I rate the chances at probably zero but it would be great if there was some world-wide anarchist movement that sought to deal with the transition equitably for everyone.

 

[kyser_soze]

Don't hold your breath.



Isn't there a quote along those lines - "we want to put the sun in a jar, problem is, we don't know how to make the jar".

Or something.

Mr Bussard I think.

Thats because there are so many factors, the main one as far as Im concerned being how people and governments react. Even if the doom is almost inevitable, there are a number of different ways it can play out. And the timescale has many question marks too, that dictate just how bumpy a ride it will be.

Clearly I dont think there is going to be a mostly pain-free, easy transition. And at this stage here is no indication at all that most people are aware of whats to come, or that they will come to terms with it without going nutty. And I think its pretty likely that nations will start scrabbling for position rather than working together, and that could really accelerate the decline via the old beasts such as war. Nuclear weapons throw an interesting spanner into the works of that old coping mechanism.

So I really wouldnt expect to find a prediction that you can place a lot of faith in at this stage, beyond 'this century is going to see massive change' and most complacent certainties will be gone within a generation.

I suspect by the time it all starts going to shit, those who still have some nukes in the silos might be surprised at how ineffective they are at blowing up when the warheads are past their use-by date.

 

[Shevek]

I read a book by James Lovelock. He was talking mainly about climate change but he was saying places like Japan, New Zealand and the UK would be the last remaining temperate climates and would become 'refuges' for civilisation. Lovelock recomends a massive expansion of nuclear power generation. Apparently according to Lovelock you can generate nuclear power from ordinary granite.

 

[Random]

What do you think?

 

[Shevek]

I don't know I am not a scientist.

 

[Random]

I don't know I am not a scientist.

We're not yet in a situation where only scientists are allowed to vote. And Lovelock didn't write his book only for scientists. What do you think?

 

[Shevek]

I dunno. I don't know much about nuclear power. It would be nice to think you could generate nuclear power from pretty much anything but then if it was possible to generate power from any old lump of rock we wouldn't be having this thread.

I think Lovelock has an agenda personally from reading his book.

 

[Random]

I dunno. I don't know much about nuclear power. It would be nice to think you could generate nuclear power from pretty much anything but then if it was possible to generate power from any old lump of rock we wouldn't be having this thread.

I think Lovelock has an agenda personally from reading his book.

I think Lovelock is a bit of a whack job. His gaia theory is very mystical anyway. Nowadays he seems to be very pleased about what a maverick he is as regards the eco movement.

Did he say how we should react when people try to immigrate to these 'refuges'?

 

[Shevek]

Yes he is a bit of a cunt on that. He says we should beef up our armed forces to keep these people out. He compares it to a lifeboat where you have to stop too many people getting onboard and sinking the life-raft.

 

[Random]

Yes he is a bit of a cunt on that. He says we should beef up our armed forces to keep these people out. He compares it to a lifeboat where you have to stop too many people getting onboard and sinking the life-raft.

That's a shame. This 'lifeboat theory' has been a staple for right-wing greens for a long time now, so the fact that Lovelock has picked it up pretty much indicates that he's not worth listening to.

 

[elbows]

You certainly have to watch out for scum who would use a variety of future gloomy scenarios to justify all sorts of shit. At the moment its not a huge issue but if/when things actually start to go bad we're gonna need all the rationality we can muster as a species to avoid human horror highscores.

We have already seen some dodgy ideas come from the environmental & climate change side of things, and equally iffy responses to it. There isnt a lot of trust around, our starting point is not a great foundation for success as the world is starting from such a mangled, cynical & unfair 'good times'. Right now people can just paint the more extreme eco-gloomers as being some sort of fascists who want to cull the poor, or at best as people who are well off enough to dream up nightmare scenarios whilst remaining confident that they themselves are well-placed to adapt and survive.

For me, the keys are whether we can come to terms with a future that involves far less consumption and making the best of things in a 'less is more' type way, and whether we can share what we do have fairly.I would not expect to see too many encouraging signs at this stage, we'll just have to see what happens and hope that we pick the right side if it comes to it.

 

[ferrelhadley]

I think Lovelock is a bit of a whack job. His gaia theory is very mystical anyway.

The weaker variants of the Gaia hypothises are rather useful in gaining insights into the 3.5 billion year homeostasis of the earth system, especially areas like silicate weathering as the so called CO2 thermostat.

His centeral concern over global warming is a feedback mechanism that is little in doubt that they exist, deep sea methane clatherates. The only question is if we are destabilising them and over what time frame they are likely to come into play. They are associated with the third phase of the Permian Triassic extinction event, suggested in ocean anoxic events in the Cretaceous and Jurassic and again associated with the Paleocene Eocen Thermal Optimum. David Archer among others suggests they will only come into play over 1000 years, others suggest much sooner. Given there capacity to move global temperatures by as much as 6-10C that is pretty damned hot. Saurian sauna type hot.

 

[ferrelhadley]

I'm trying to break it to you gently, but in all seriousness, if we continue to allow ourselves to imagine that we can suddenly make a switch to renewable energy and maintain any semblance of 'business as usual', the end result will be... well, that we envy the dead.

Hence TEOTWAWKI. Part of tranistion will likely mean changing from a society that expects energy to be available on tap to one that paces its high energy activities to the availability of large amounts of energy from renewable sources. Things like steel mills only running when the sun is shining in the deserts, or with the tides.

Its not the end of the world, just the end of the world as we know it.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Oil is up to $88 a barrel. Right when the other economic indicators are still looking kinda week. Very high oil prices globally and petrol prices here in the UK seem to have become the accepted norm.

 

[goebfwai]

You certainly have to watch out for scum who would use a variety of future gloomy scenarios to justify all sorts of s***.

I sincerely hope I am wrong, but it seems to me the horse has already bolted through the stable doors on that score. I believe the earth has been well tilled, the dastardly seeds have been sown and such horrors are already under full and active cultivation right now, ready to find an all too receptive and acquiescient audience in many societal quarters.

 

[fredfelt]

You certainly have to watch out for scum who would use a variety of future gloomy scenarios to justify all sorts of shit. At the moment its not a huge issue but if/when things actually start to go bad we're gonna need all the rationality we can muster as a species to avoid human horror highscores.

We have already seen some dodgy ideas come from the environmental & climate change side of things, and equally iffy responses to it. There isnt a lot of trust around, our starting point is not a great foundation for success as the world is starting from such a mangled, cynical & unfair 'good times'. Right now people can just paint the more extreme eco-gloomers as being some sort of fascists who want to cull the poor, or at best as people who are well off enough to dream up nightmare scenarios whilst remaining confident that they themselves are well-placed to adapt and survive.

For me, the keys are whether we can come to terms with a future that involves far less consumption and making the best of things in a 'less is more' type way, and whether we can share what we do have fairly.I would not expect to see too many encouraging signs at this stage, we'll just have to see what happens and hope that we pick the right side if it comes to it.

I have not read the context of your post but generally someone who throws around the terms 'scum' and 'dody ideas', 'iffy responses' and them makes accusations of 'fascists' I would expect to be very narrow minded themselves.

Another way to look at it that people have different ideas and ideals to ones that you may hold. Only in very extreme circumstances would I classify those people as 'fascists'. A fascist has a definition which I think is well understood. Putting the prefix 'eco' in front of 'fascist' generally tells you more about views of the person using the term rather than the person being described.

 

[elbows]

I have not read the context of your post but generally someone who throws around the terms 'scum' and 'dody ideas', 'iffy responses' and them makes accusations of 'fascists' I would expect to be very narrow minded themselves.

Another way to look at it that people have different ideas and ideals to ones that you may hold. Only in very extreme circumstances would I classify those people as 'fascists'. A fascist has a definition which I think is well understood. Putting the prefix 'eco' in front of 'fascist' generally tells you more about views of the person using the term rather than the person being described.

The context is the history of this thread and a variety of climate change threads on these forums in recent years. When I go on about eco-fascists, I am talking about some of the rants on this subject which have come up here from time to time, where people start going on about eugenics or dastardly plots to kill the poor. Im not bothered about eco-fascists myself, rather its the fear of that agenda that Ive run into when trying to suggest that the future is going to have to be very different and sacrifice may be unavoidable. There are no end of different beliefs about whats happening and who is behind it, and plenty of political entities and ideologies that will try to make what they can from any crisis, and thats what Im often going on about. And specifically I was going on about how at this stage, lots of people can still be in complete denial, with beliefs such as 'climate change is a scam', 'its just about raising taxes', 'oil wont peak for a long time', 'its some eco-fascists'. This maks it pretty hard for a debate to be had with the wider population about what should be done to avoid doom, when there is still considerable disagreement about the nature or existence of the doom.

 

[ferrelhadley]

eco-fascists,

A term so often directed at me it is often a redundancy. But then again I can give a pretty reasonable description to people of radiative transfer theory and the geology underlying the Pine Island Glacier....