Looming Le Pen - French Election 2022

[Puddy_Tat]

Not all of the 42% who voted for Le Pen are racists, some of them are cunts.

yes, not all cunts are racists...

 

[cupid_stunt]

I bet old Frog-face will be crying into his corn flakes this morning.

 

[killer b]

If Melenchon had got into the second round, it would have been fascinating to see who had turned out to be the less-hated. I think he stood a chance of winning.

While Melenchon polled much better than expected in the first round, the second round polling had a much bigger gap than between Macron and Le Pen - way beyond the distance that could be made up by a polling error.

I'd have loved to see a Melenchon/Macron match up too, but he wasn't ever going to win it

 

[The39thStep]

Melenchon's position on the EU had always been EU -sceptic . He was previously reform or leave and in this election had a position of reform or if no reforms just ignore the EU and implement his programme regardless.
Le Pen moved from leave to reform the EU /ignore the EU and introduce her programme and if necessary have a referendum on French law versus EU law .

 

[Ax^]

and she also a fucking Nazi

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Thank fuck France hasn’t elected a far right nut job.

I’m sure there will be posters on here who will bang on about how this doesn’t serve ‘the working class’ but for once I can go to bed happy after an election result.

I wouldn't say 13 million votes for Le Pen is anything to be pleased about. Of course the weightier question is what will happen after another term in office for Macron. We can say with some certainty that none of those 13 million people will be likely to vote for elite double liberalism after anther dose of it. The question is how many of those who voted for macron this time while holding their nose choose not to next time.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I wouldn't say 13 million votes for Le Pen is anything to be pleased about. Of course the weightier question is what will happen after another term in office for Macron. We can say with some certainty that none of those 13 million people will be likely to vote for elite double liberalism after anther dose of it. The question is how many of those who voted for macron this time while holding their nose choose not to next time.

It's not a great result for Le Pen, though. If you add R! and DLF to her first round votes, she only got 2 million extra people to vote far right in the second round. It is up from 10.5 million last time, admittedly, but she is still a long way from realistically standing a chance.

 

[Sue]

It's not a great result for Le Pen, though. If you add R! and DLF to her first round votes, she only got 2 million extra people to vote far right in the second round. It is up from 10.5 million last time, admittedly, but she is still a long way from realistically standing a chance.

I'd say it's an excellent result for Le Pen. The normalisation of her getting through to the next round continues, her share and number of second round votes are up from 2017 (41.5% vs 33.9%, 13.3 million votes vs 10.6 million votes)

And second round turnout is down (71.9% vs 77.7%) which suggests people are less likely to vote for her opponent to make sure she doesn't get in.

I imagine she's very pleased with the outcome.

 

[YouSir]

It's not a great result for Le Pen, though. If you add R! and DLF to her first round votes, she only got 2 million extra people to vote far right in the second round. It is up from 10.5 million last time, admittedly, but she is still a long way from realistically standing a chance.

In the long run she doesn't really need to stand a chance, the Far Right is evidently normalised enough to get a major vote share, there's minimal chance of Macron winning those voters back, so even if it's her successor or the one after that it's hard to see how the Far Right isn't firmly embedded now.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'd say it's an excellent result for Le Pen. The normalisation of her getting through to the next round continues, her share and number of second round votes are up from 2017 (41.5% vs 33.9%, 13.3 million votes vs 10.6 million votes)

And second round turnout is down (71.9% vs 77.7%) which suggests people are less likely to vote for her opponent to make sure she doesn't get in.

I imagine she's very pleased with the outcome.

Just three weeks ago, one pre-election poll put a Macron–Le Pen head-to-head at as close as 51–49. It didn't come close to that, even with the relatively high abstention rate.

Exclusive polling: Marine Le Pen on 49 per cent of the vote for French president

Looking a bit more closely at that, the thing they predicted in that poll that didn't materialise was a substantial switch from Melenchon first round to Le Pen second round. Didn't happen. That's the crumb of comfort I'll take from yesterday's result.

 

[Sue]

Just three weeks ago, one pre-election poll put a Macron–Le Pen head-to-head at as close as 51–49. It didn't come close to that, even with the relatively high abstention rate.

Exclusive polling: Marine Le Pen on 49 per cent of the vote for French president

Pre-election polls can say all kinds of things. The proof of the pudding is in the actual results. And going on the actual results, she did very well.

Looking a bit more closely at that, the thing they predicted in that poll that didn't materialise was a substantial switch from Melenchon first round to Le Pen second round. Didn't happen. That's the crumb of comfort I'll take from yesterday's result.

So you need to take a crumb of comfort for something you just said wasn't a great result for Le Pen?

 

[AmateurAgitator]

A French facebook friend of mine posted this today

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Pre-election polls can say all kinds of things. The proof of the pudding is in the actual results. And going on the actual results, she did very well.


So you need to take a crumb of comfort for something you just said wasn't a great result for Le Pen?

I think the first round was clearly a good result for her. But the second round not so much. Her failure to capture Melenchon voters was a positive from yesterday.

 

[Pickman's model]

In the long run she doesn't really need to stand a chance, the Far Right is evidently normalised enough to get a major vote share, there's minimal chance of Macron winning those voters back, so even if it's her successor or the one after that it's hard to see how the Far Right isn't firmly embedded now.

if 29.85% of the electorate in a two horse race is a major vote share then yes

 

[YouSir]

if 29.85% of the electorate in a two horse race is a major vote share then yes

Do you think it isn't?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I think the first round was clearly a good result for her. But the second round not so much. Her failure to capture Melenchon voters was a positive from yesterday.

Front National presidential candidates vote share:

18% in 2002
34% in 2017
42% in 2022

As for Melenchon voters 45% didn’t vote for Macron and explain the 3 million spoilt ballots..

Enjoy your crumb of comfort…

 

[Pickman's model]

Front National presidential candidates vote share:

18% in 2002
34% in 2017
42% in 2022

As for Melenchon voters 45% didn’t vote for Macron and explain the 3 million spoilt ballots..

Enjoy your crumb of comfort…

% of electorate
2002 14.18%
2017 25.29%
2022 29.85%

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you think it isn't?

not against a candidate as unappealing as macron, no. you'll have noted that the turnout was rather down - the lowest since 1969, apparently. seems to me marine le pen's time is unlikely to come unless macron does something particularly disgusting underneath the arc de triomphe

 

[The39thStep]

Election voting map for the second round. Guyana, Martinique, Guadeloup strongest Le Pen vote percentage wise and numerically a sort of corridor from Pas De Calais down North West to Haite-Saon

 

[The39thStep]

This is a good if somewhat overlong and detailed discussion about the elections

The French Left should unite rather than consider supporting the Far Right Le Pen

Emmanuel Macron won the second-round of the Presidential election in France at the weekend (April 24, 2022), as expected. He easily beat the right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen – scoring 58.54…

bilbo.economicoutlook.net

 

[William of Walworth]

To what extent do people think Macron's popularity was reduced/damaged by his pension plans (specifically)?

Surely some significant damage must have been done. What kind of fucking idiot votes in favour of raising the pension age???

 

[Raheem]

What kind of fucking idiot votes in favour of raising the pension age???

I dunno, but it's not really an isolated case in the world.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

To what extent do people think Macron's popularity was reduced/damaged by his pension plans (specifically)?

Surely some significant damage must have been done. What kind of fucking idiot votes in favour of raising the pension age???

Well Macron's support was strongest among the old, ie the already-retired. Keep working, younguns - you've got to pay my pension.

 

[rekil]

I didn't see if Frederic Chatillon's name came up in English lang media. He's a close friend of Le Pen, her eminence grise, since his thug days and has some interesting business interests.

Frédéric Chatillon is a former executive of the GUD , an extreme right-wing group of which he was the main leader in Paris during the 1990s (it was at this time that he met Marine Le Pen in Assas 8 , 39 ). He took over in 1992 . The following year, a note drafted by the police pointed out that the observed worsening of violence in student circles was due to the "Groupe Union Défense" , the "currently most virulent formation, whose ideological vacuity has no equal to this unbridled propensity for violence” 40

In March 2017, in a documentary broadcast by Special Envoy on March 16, 2017, the former adviser to Marine Le Pen, Aymeric Chauprade speaks for the first time about the "men in the shadows" who surround the president of the FN . According to him “Marine Le Pen is not free, she is held by these people [Frédéric Chatillon, Axel Loustau and Philippe Péninque ]. If she comes to power, these people will be the power. There is no reason for this group to disappear. This is the group that brought Marine Le Pen to power. This is the economy of the National Front. These are the secrets of Marine Le Pen

Both met at the Assas Law University in Paris in the 1990s. The young man then headed the Groupe Union Défense (GUD), a far-right student association. Far from being a simple president of this organization, he embodies it, both in spirit (worship of the body, practice of martial arts, violence, anti-leftism, taste for "provocativeness") and in the ascendancy exercised over Its pairs. It was he, the gang leader, who made the GUD take a turn called radical “anti-Zionist” – he himself also worked in a bookstore distributing negationist and neo-Nazi writings.

Frédéric Chatillon : entre dolce vita et business, l’exil romain de l’ancien chef du GUD

L’ex-leader de cette organisation étudiante d’extrême droite et ami de longue date de Marine Le Pen dispose de multiples relais à Rome. Selon nos informations, ses activités et celles d’autres Français de la même mouvance intriguent l’Unité d’information financière de la Banque d’Italie, un...

www.lemonde.fr

 

[stavros]

I dunno, but it's not really an isolated case in the world.

Indeed, and I understand France starts from a very generous position on pension reform. They've edged the age up from 60 to 62 in the past few years, whilst the UK, Germany, Spain and Italy are all around 66-67.

 

[The39thStep]

This is from 2017 before the Presidential election later that year . The conclusion is a belter : " A choice between Le Pen and Mélenchon in the presidential run-off on 7 May would likely lead to record low turnout and unprecedented gains for the far right "

Anti-German, soft on Putin – Mélenchon is no saviour of the left | Natalie Nougayrede

The veteran socialist has surged in the French presidential polls. But his politics arrive laden with unsavoury baggage that can’t easily be discarded

www.theguardian.com

 

[AmateurAgitator]

Melanchon is the guy who is on film screaming at someone "I am the Republic!". He comes across as an egotistical loon in that footage.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

I didn't see if Frederic Chatillon's name came up in English lang media. He's a close friend of Le Pen, her eminence grise, since his thug days and has some interesting business interests.

Frédéric Chatillon : entre dolce vita et business, l’exil romain de l’ancien chef du GUD

L’ex-leader de cette organisation étudiante d’extrême droite et ami de longue date de Marine Le Pen dispose de multiples relais à Rome. Selon nos informations, ses activités et celles d’autres Français de la même mouvance intriguent l’Unité d’information financière de la Banque d’Italie, un...

www.lemonde.fr

I'd forgotten about the GUD
funny how many financial scams are being investigated in relation to all of this lot including marine

 

[killer b]

Should the thread title be changed to 'Looming Melenchon'? Anyone got any idea what Melenchon's success in the first round the legislative elections could mean?

 

[stavros]

4 of the 5 seats so far are for Mélenchon's NUPES coalition, and 1 for Macron's Ensemble. They, along with le Rassemblement national (Le Pen) have over two-thirds of the first round vote between them.

Round 2 on Sunday.