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Local Elections 2018

Would have liked to be able to vote in Oval ward Lambeth for Michael Keane - Green
I'm in Vassall ward... will vote Green but don't think Vassall ward candidates have made much effort

MJK has already done so much good work pointing out Lambeth Labour manipulation of facts

 
Some forecasts for tomorrow

DcMucYwXUAAiovX.jpg
 
The Rallings & Thrasher numbers he quotes are from the start of April BTW, before the bulk of the recent Tory fightback
 
Slo-mo said:
This guy is actually predicting Tory gains?!? Albeit with a large range of uncertainty.
Click to expand...

Only 1/3rd of seats are up for grabs around here, if that includes the two UKIP seats, I would expect Tory gains.

The council make-up is somewhat depressing:

  • 30 Conservative (in current overall political control)
  • 2 Liberal Democrat
  • 2 UKIP
  • 1 Green
  • 1 Independent
  • 1 Labour
I've only had leaflets from the Tories, LidDems & UKIP, I had to go digging around to find that Labour and the Greens are even standing in my ward. The Tories will get over 50% anyway, so it makes it somewhat pointless.
 
Sorry, I should have made myself clearer. There will certainly be wards that the Tories gain from UKIP, Liberals and even the odd one from Labour where an incumbent Labour council is unpopular.

What this particular prediction is predicting is *net* gains, which I was surprised by.
 
cupid_stunt said:
Only 1/3rd of seats are up for grabs around here, if that includes the two UKIP seats, I would expect Tory gains.

The council make-up is somewhat depressing:

  • 30 Conservative (in current overall political control)
  • 2 Liberal Democrat
  • 2 UKIP
  • 1 Green
  • 1 Independent
  • 1 Labour
I've only had leaflets from the Tories, LidDems & UKIP, I had to go digging around to find that Labour and the Greens are even standing in my ward. The Tories will get over 50% anyway, so it makes it somewhat pointless.
Click to expand...

I've always voted, living in a place where they weigh the Tory vote for both locals and nationals, I'm starting to wonder what the point is? That isn't something I ever thought I'd think and only an opinion I've formed in the last few months. Maybe it's a phase.
 
Slo-mo said:
Sorry, I should have made myself clearer. There will certainly be wards that the Tories gain from UKIP, Liberals and even the odd one from Labour where an incumbent Labour council is unpopular.

What this particular prediction is predicting is *net* gains, which I was surprised by.
Click to expand...
The national polls currently have the tories on average a little ahead of Labour. Last time most of these seats were fought, Labour were a couple of points ahead (although it's suggested in the blog that they were overvalued). There isn't really that much room for movement between Labour and Tory, as their relative positions are fairly similar to last time.

Although! as we've seen, Labour are considerably ahead in London (presumably this is reflected in other big cities - there's talk of them taking Trafford council in Manchester for example), and up in both relative and absolute terms on their 2014 share. Which must mean a drop in support (or at least a lot more UKIP voters going Tory instead of Labour) in non-metropolitan areas, if the polls are to be believed - which could mean winning in the cities for Labour is reflected with losses elsewhere.

Fuck knows really though. I think everyone just has their fingers in the air to some extent.
 
bemused said:
I've always voted, living in a place where they weigh the Tory vote for both locals and nationals, I'm starting to wonder what the point is? That isn't something I ever thought I'd think and only an opinion I've formed in the last few months. Maybe it's a phase.
Click to expand...

Shame here, I've normally always voted, but I am honestly not sure I can be arsed this time.

And, TBF, the Tories are surprisingly running the borough council pretty well, lending large amounts to the main local housing association to develop social housing, investing in & supporting the cultural offering, setting-up shared working space for start-up creative businesses & giving out small grants for start-ups & small businesses to support training & expansion, supporting the main homeless charity beyond what I would expect, buying up unused sites to push forward developments, keeping services like bin collections & back office functions in house, etc. etc.

TBH, they fucking amaze me at times, not sure how they do, I guess they have/had large reserves.

Although I suspect a lot of this is down to their choice of Chief Executive, who's a seriously nice guy, who I have a lot of respect for - he's a former professional musician & charted in the 80's with one group, who's name escapes me. He's actually shared between Worthing & Adur Councils, and earns less than a lot of CE's working for one council gets paid. He has recently dropped to, IIRC, 3 days a week between the 2 councils, to take-up 2 days a week with the local NHS, to drive forward plans for more co-operation between the 3 bodies.

My views on the county council differ, substantially!
 
cupid_stunt said:
Shame here, I've normally always voted, but I am honestly not sure I can be arsed this time.

And, TBF, the Tories are surprisingly running the borough council pretty well, lending large amounts to the main local housing association to develop social housing, investing in & supporting the cultural offering, setting-up shared working space for start-up creative businesses & giving out small grants for start-ups & small businesses to support training & expansion, supporting the main homeless charity beyond what I would expect, buying up unused sites to push forward developments, keeping services like bin collections & back office functions in house, etc. etc.

TBH, they fucking amaze me at times, not sure how they do, I guess they have/had large reserves.

Although I suspect a lot of this is down to their choice of Chief Executive, who's a seriously nice guy, who I have a lot of respect for - he's a former professional musician & charted in the 80's with one group, who's name escapes me. He's actually shared between Worthing & Adur Councils, and earns less than a lot of CE's working for one council gets paid. He has recently dropped to, IIRC, 3 days a week between the 2 councils, to take-up 2 days a week with the local NHS, to drive forward plans for more co-operation between the 3 bodies.

My views on the county council differ, substantially!
Click to expand...
You raise an interesting point about sharing senior functions between councils. Not sure if anyone’s made a serious study of this. But there must be many cases where the individual functions could be designed to serve two authorities...
 
patman post said:
You raise an interesting point about sharing senior functions between councils. Not sure if anyone’s made a serious study of this. But there must be many cases where the individual functions could be designed to serve two authorities...
Click to expand...

All the services between the two councils have long been combined, they are actually held up nationally as an example of how millions can be saved, whilst protecting front-line services.

OK a lot of managers lost their jobs, with decent pay-offs, but that's a small price to pay for the protection of front-line services & jobs, I can live with that TBH.

I hate to be defending the Tories, but as I posted above, at borough level they surprise me, at county level - they are cunts IMO.
 
I got one leaflet through the door and it's the Labour bod saying how much he's done for us but everything is in an estate nowhere near ours. checked my ward on the map of the city - there is no logical sense why we are in this ward as all the kids' schools, the shops, the community areas and bus routes are all in the next ward, as is half our estate. We're literally divided from 3/4 of the ward by a huge park. We'd be better off campaigning for whoever is standing in the next ward. Which idiot worked these out?:D
 
A solitary leaflet delivered by royal mail - labour. Not a peep out of the libdems, green or the vermin scum. I don't blame the vermin though - they're usually pissing in the wind in the city of Manchester so would be wasting money on printing.
 
This is too depressing in the one party state of Labour Blairite Lambeth there is little hope of making any change in Vassal Ward - Gadsby wants to follow Steve Reed to a gold plated Westminster expense account and pension - Dyer is ok but under the party thumb - Gallop might not actually exist
We're all doomed...
moderngov.lambeth.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=129&RPID=32930083
 
Just voted. Polling Station v quiet. I was the only voter. A couple of cops, Green and Labour bods on the door and a random Labour freak outside saying "Good Morning Sir!" at passers by. I gave him the evils.
 
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