Local Elections 2018

[agricola]

I agree. I can't see any route to a general election before 2022. Last year, conditions were basically perfect for May, yet they still lost their majority. Those conditions or similar aren't going to happen before 2022, and even if they did they won't risk it again.

Not perfect conditions no, but there are a lot of reasons why Easter 2019 would make a lot of sense for them to call an election (and forgive me for repeating an earlier post) - it will be after we've left but before most of the Brexit pigeons come home to roost, more of their electorate will be alive than they will be in 2022, and the students would be on a term-time holiday.

Whether May would lead it is another matter, of course.

 

[Slo-mo]

There's no way May will call another early snap election. No chance. None.

(With apologies to Killer B who I know isn't keen on betting)

You can get a slightly better than even money return on that, if you are so sure.

I think it is possible she may have no choice at some stage, either because of some falling out in her own party or the DUP pulling the rug.

The one downside of Corbyn is that, AIUI, the DUP pretty much regard him as persona non grata and won't talk with him. A shame because I think there are some Labour policies like raising the minimum wage or scrapping the bedroom tax that would benefit poorer NI Protestants.

 

[Dogsauce]

I agree. I can't see any route to a general election before 2022. Last year, conditions were basically perfect for May, yet they still lost their majority. Those conditions or similar aren't going to happen before 2022, and even if they did they won't risk it again.

There was massive complacency last time, Tories thought they could say anything and get away with putting stuff like bringing back hunting with dogs in their manifesto because Corbyn didn’t have a chance. Unfortunately I don’t think they’re stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.

 

[frogwoman]

(With apologies to Killer B who I know isn't keen on betting)

You can get a slightly better than even money return on that, if you are so sure.

I think it is possible she may have no choice at some stage, either because of some falling out in her own party or the DUP pulling the rug.

The one downside of Corbyn is that, AIUI, the DUP pretty much regard him as persona non grata and won't talk with him. A shame because I think there are some Labour policies like raising the minimum wage or scrapping the bedroom tax that would benefit poorer NI Protestants.

What would make the DUP pull out? I think they'll want to keep him out as long as they can

 

[Slo-mo]

What would make the DUP pull out? I think they'll want to keep him out as long as they can

That's the problem. It's a shame because many DUP voters would be natural Labour voters if they lived in England, Scotland or Wales.

 

[kebabking]

What would make the DUP pull out? I think they'll want to keep him out as long as they can

i doubt theres anything May would do that the DUP would think of as being worse than the good chance that Corbyn would be PM in 8 weeks.

i would be astounded if they were more wedded to - for example - a hard Brexit than they were frightened by Corbyn. for the DUP May isn't perfect, they don't like her and she doesn't like them, but she's better than Corbyn by a very long measure.

 

[killer b]

There was massive complacency last time, Tories thought they could say anything and get away with putting stuff like bringing back hunting with dogs in their manifesto because Corbyn didn’t have a chance. Unfortunately I don’t think they’re stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.

I'm not sure I agree with the popular opinion that the result was down to Tory complacency and a bad campaign - they committed a few mistakes, but that's totally normal - Labour dropped a load of clangers too. And while Corbyn is an exceptional campaigner, I don't think he's that good.

I'm happy for the Tories to keep thinking it was just a bad campaign though. They should keep concentrating on presentation.

 

[MickiQ]

There was massive complacency last time, Tories thought they could say anything and get away with putting stuff like bringing back hunting with dogs in their manifesto because Corbyn didn’t have a chance. Unfortunately I don’t think they’re stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.

Allowing a free vote on lifting the hunting ban was in both the 2010 and 2015 Tory manifesto's it didn't happen in 2010 since the LibDems were against it and Cameron didn't think it was important enough to make a fuss over, It didn't happen in 2015 since the Tory majority was too small, there is a significant minority of Tory MP's especially those in Urban constituencies who would vote against it.
Hunting is a niche issue that a small number of people care very passionately about with maybe 0.01% wanting it made legal again and maybe 0.1% prepared to fight to keep it banned but 99%+ don't even think about it.
It got more coverage this time round since the pro-hunting lobby got excited since a very large Tory majority is their only real hope of getting the ban lifted.
Like so many others they were no doubt deeply disappointed by the election result.

 

[killer b]

Hunting is unpopular with the vast majority of the population, it's just not something (alone) that they'll vote on. It probably did help shape the debate though, crystalise in people's minds what the tories are about.

This analysis about how Brexit influenced the local elections from Curtice is good btw: How Brexit Shaped The Local Election Vote

 

[Streathamite]

That's not true, there were plenty of people on here that predicted otherwise.

How are you coming up with 18?
YouGov: 18-19 Apr 24%, 5-7 Jun 35% = 11%
Survation: 21-22 Apr 29%, 6-7 Jun 40% = 11%
ICM: 18 Apr 25%, 6-7 Jun 34% = 9%
Ipsos MORI: 21-25 Apr 26%, 6-7 Jun 36% = 10%
ComRes: 19-20 Apr 25%, 5-7 Jun 34% = 9%
(All numbers form here)

You're looking at an increase of ~10%.

Of course the fact that there were problems with the polling for the 2017 GE means that such data has to be looked at closely anyway.

I'm referring to the increase in Labour's %age, not the gap between the two, and I'm starting from the last round of polls conducted BEFORE Treeza the clueless broke yet another promise and declared her intention to ask parliament for the vote for a General election.
In other words, the last polls before GE impartiality rules kicked in.
Labour was getting between 22% and 25% in that round of polls, as against 40% in the General election

e2a: the gap between the two main parties, that is.

 

[Streathamite]

Overall, a resounding win for the Conservatives. Lost a few Councillors and one council, when they should have been annihilated.

That's the problem with the Urban bubble, it's view of how things are are guided by prejudice and hope, rather than fact.

It would seem the real world doesn't want change, which is quite astonishing really. This is the most inept government I've seen since Wilson.

Sas, it really wasn't a resounding win for the Tories - it just wasn't as dreadful as their expectations management team had led people to expect.
Labour still won London by a street, and it was neck and neck, overall, for everywhere else.

 

[redsquirrel]

I'm referring to the increase in Labour's %age,

Yes so am I, that's what that data I posted gives.

Labour was getting between 22% and 25% in that round of polls, as against 40% in the General election

But that's totally invalid. You can't use data from some polls (which we now can be pretty sure were probably underestimating the Labour vote share) and the Labour share of the vote at the actual GE and claim there was an X% increase. You have to compare like with like - so polls (with the same methodology) at the (or before) the GE was called with the last polls before the actual vote. That gives an increase in vote share of ~10%.

 

[killer b]

Labour still won London by a street, and it was neck and neck, overall, for everywhere else.

No it wasn't. The Tories were ahead outside London.

 

[The39thStep]

Fom Election Data tweet :

Something remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets): CON 43% (35% in January) LAB 40% (46%) LD 7% (6%) UKIP 3% (7%) GRN 2% (2%) Seven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January

 

[Streathamite]

Yes so am I, that's what that data I posted gives.

But that's totally invalid. You can't use data from some polls (which we now can be pretty sure were probably underestimating the Labour vote share) and the Labour share of the vote at the actual GE and claim there was an X% increase. You have to compare like with like - so polls (with the same methodology) at the (or before) the GE was called with the last polls before the actual vote. That gives an increase in vote share of ~10%.

I will answer properly at the weekend when I get sufficient time to do so, behind a proper PC, during the week I only have my very erratic ZTE mobile, and very little time to assess and research properly before posting, usually late on like this

 

[redsquirrel]

I will answer properly at the weekend when I get sufficient time to do so, behind a proper PC, during the week I only have my very erratic ZTE mobile, and very little time to assess and research properly before posting, usually late on like this

No probs.

 

[killer b]

Fom Election Data tweet :

These are interesting figures... if true (lets assume they are) then what's behind the swing in only this group? Apparently the crossbreaks for ABC1s are unchanged.

Is it the softening Labour stance on Brexit? Russiagate? Fallout from the Skripals? Labour Antisemitism? A combination of all of these? And why did similar attacks & events not seem to have the same effect in the general election?

 

[The39thStep]

These are interesting figures... if true (lets assume they are) then what's behind the swing in only this group? Apparently the crossbreaks for ABC1s are unchanged.

Is it the softening Labour stance on Brexit? Russiagate? Fallout from the Skripals? Labour Antisemitism? A combination of all of these? And why did similar attacks & events not seem to have the same effect in the general election?

I seem to recall that the Tories did make some inroads into the w/class vote at the GE.

 

[killer b]

I seem to recall that the Tories did make some inroads into the w/class vote at the GE.

They did, but how come their approach then didn't pick up this 7% as well?

 

[killer b]

It just seemed to me that a lot of the politics stuff in the run up to the locals was just a repeat of what happened last summer - but it felt like they had maxed out on this approach then - how would anyone who wasn't swung last year going to be swung now?

 

[The39thStep]

In some Labour Council areas it might be a touch of low turn out/disconnection for Labour higher turn out for Tories but I think there is something more significant than that and its part of a longer trend.Some of those things you mentioned may have had an effect but I'm far from convinced that Corbyn/Abbot etc are as popular in the North and Midlands as they are in London .

 

[killer b]

I don't think low turnout would have any effect on opinion polling would it?

I'm not arguing the swing hasn't happened, or that Corbyn & Abbott aren't widely loathed by much of the trad Labour base: I'm just wondering why this swing has happened since January - what's made all those people jump now instead of last June?

 

[elbows]

The local tory candidates round here were already quite an impressive-looking bunch this time, even before the local party website cropped the shit out of their heads.

View attachment 134252

One of these winning cropped egg-cup tories had the whip withdrawn already:

Assault probe councillor steps down

 

[Poi E]

that Corbyn & Abbott aren't widely loathed by much of the trad Labour base

Who are the traditional Labour base these days? Genuine question.

 

[The39thStep]

I don't think low turnout would have any effect on opinion polling would it?

I'm not arguing the swing hasn't happened, or that Corbyn & Abbott aren't widely loathed by much of the trad Labour base: I'm just wondering why this swing has happened since January - what's made all those people jump now instead of last June?

You're right on the effect on polling , obviously wasn't thinking .

 

[killer b]

Who are the traditional Labour base these days? Genuine question.

Well, I think the traditional Labour base and these days Labour base are two quite different things, hence the big electoral movement we've seen the past few years.

The biggest predictor of party affiliation is currently whether you have a degree (Labour) or not (Tory) I believe.

 

[Pickman's model]

so, by my reckoning the following far/populist right parties stood:

bnp
nf
for britain movement
democrats & veterans party
british resistance

not counting ukip here

anyone know of any i've missed?

 

[Poi E]

Conservative and Unionist Party.

 

[Pickman's model]

Conservative and Unionist Party.

 

[Poi E]

I know, I know