Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Local Elections 2018

Spoke to my mate who ran as a paper candidate for the Greens in Hackney. Turns out they took Labour to a recount in Dalston (21 votes) and had a 90 vote margin in Hackney Downs.

Much as I'm no fan of the Greens that is a top effort and would have been a good way of chipping away at the Labour monolith here... Sounds like Labour chucked everything at it, which is basically what happened with Hackney IWCA/Hackney Independent in the noughties too...
 
I'm neither a Labour nor Corbyn supporter, but it really has to be stressed that these results are not a reflection on GE votes for Corbyn led Labour.

Turnout was way lower than in a GE. If Corbyn is to win, he'll be doing so with the votes of those who don't always/often vote.

People will vote differently in locals than GEs. I know a fair few people (incl. myself) who voted Labour in the GE but didn't (and wouldn't) in the locals the results in Reading East wards such as my own back this up I think.

yes - but if you look at the relationship between LE and GE results , then you can make an inference.. and as a general rule in the past the opposition party do better at this stage, because everyone is fucked off with the party in power. That doesn't seem to be happening, and I currently see precious little evidence that Corbyn can start getting the necessary % to actually get a clear majority.
 
But Labour *did* do better than the Tories. It may not have been the runaway spanking that was being breathlessly prognosticated in some quarters, but Labour definitely ended ahead.
 
. That doesn't seem to be happening, and I currently see precious little evidence that Corbyn can start getting the necessary % to actually get a clear majority.
I think Corbyn should stay, but I do think it's time he started to reach across to the centre left a bit. Replacing the hopeless Diane Abbott with a Progress member, or even someone between the two ends of the party would be a good start.
 
yes - but if you look at the relationship between LE and GE results , then you can make an inference.. and as a general rule in the past the opposition party do better at this stage, because everyone is fucked off with the party in power. That doesn't seem to be happening, and I currently see precious little evidence that Corbyn can start getting the necessary % to actually get a clear majority.

The problem with this is that as we are now in a world where its fairly evident that these general rules from the past no longer apply.

At the moment, thanks to the demise of UKIP and the Coalition's effect on the Lib Dems, we are living in a two party system in England for the first time since the end of the 70s. We also have a huge issue that dominates all other issues present in British politics, which is so big that it is hard to find an actual parallel for in British political history. Most importantly we have the two main party leaders remaining in post and (to varying extents) politically effective even though (based on how politics has been conducted these past sixty years) both of them should have been thrown out by now (May after the humiliation of the GE, Corbyn after the Benn coup the year before and the vote of no confidence from the majority of his MPs).
 
I dunno what it's like round your end, but there's already plenty of bosses and landlords on the council here.
Haha, I am not Welsh and certainly not nationalist.

e2a I meant, in part that we didn't get to vote this time round but also there are certainly more tory scum over the border.
These (predictable) results just state the bleedin' obvious, which is: Corbyn is a busted flush and The Labour Party are now as abysmal as the Tory party.

The warning signs were clear to see at the last General election, where despite having one of the most callous and uncaring Tory governments ever AND one of the most shambolic Tory election campaigns ever AND one of the most inept Tory leaders ever (May), Labour still LOST, whereas in reality they should've walked it. Like any half-decent Labour Party would've have. Yet (and here's the funniest part) the morning after that election Corbyn and his eejits (not to mention some of their far left supporters) portrayed that loss it as some kind of victory! Lol. It was like they were at the start of some sort of golden road to Damascus, a yellow brick road to a fantastic, utopian socialist future. "We've only just begun!" seemed to be emboldened, rallying cry. "This is just the beginning! We're on our way now! Here we come!"

Only there was one problem. It was wrong. And delusional too. The fact is they lost an election that by any criteria the Labour Party should have won easily (and, puh-lease, no excuses either about it was the fault of the scummy right wing press etc etc. That's an excuse that doesn't hold water whatsoever and is sooo last Century to boot). No, if the election of 2017 was indeed a 'victory' for Corbyn's Labour Party, then it was a pyrrhic victory, about as useful as a chocolate teapot in the midday sun.

Because, to me, since then, just the Conservative Party (who proudly and unapologetically show their ruthlessness and lack of compassion like a badge of honour) the Labour Party too has collapsed further in on itself; they are distrusted by many sections of society; outside the London Westminster and metropolitan elite they're regarded as just as bad and hypocritical and substandard as the cretinous Tories. And just like their true-blue counterparts, they are becoming an increasingly unpalatable and vicious political party too ie. witness the vile racism that's now being expounded in certain sections of the party (and elements of their far left supporters too) AND the total lack-lustre action in dealing with it (and only dealing with it now because they've been forced too ie. they've been sussed out). That, in itself, is a total disgrace and anathema to what Labour values should be all about. And taken together these elements add to a Labour Party being hoisted by it's own and ever-damaging petard. These stale and non-results are now partly proof of that; think about it.... mid term, Tories on their knees, in complete disarray - Labour should've have WALKED all over them. Made massive inroads, onwards and forwards. Knocked May and her cronies out the ball park. But instead we have a final, sad summation of the current politcal state of affairs in England 2018:: the Labour Party is now as hopeless as the Tory Party. A choice between Dumb and Dumber. Which, of course, is no choice at all.
You are about a million miles from the truth of the matter.
Fact: Beforehand, EVERYONE expected Labour to get absolutely buried, and consequently finished for a generation.
Their result was miles better than anyone expected.
Fact two:they gained EIGHTEEN percentage points over the course of the campaign. That has NEVER happened, in my lifetime, and I am 51.
 
You are about a million miles from the truth of the matter.
Fact: Beforehand, EVERYONE expected Labour to get absolutely buried, and consequently finished for a generation.
That's not true, there were plenty of people on here that predicted otherwise.
Fact two:they gained EIGHTEEN percentage points over the course of the campaign. That has NEVER happened, in my lifetime, and I am 51.
How are you coming up with 18?
YouGov: 18-19 Apr 24%, 5-7 Jun 35% = 11%
Survation: 21-22 Apr 29%, 6-7 Jun 40% = 11%
ICM: 18 Apr 25%, 6-7 Jun 34% = 9%
Ipsos MORI: 21-25 Apr 26%, 6-7 Jun 36% = 10%
ComRes: 19-20 Apr 25%, 5-7 Jun 34% = 9%
(All numbers form here)

You're looking at an increase of ~10%.

Of course the fact that there were problems with the polling for the 2017 GE means that such data has to be looked at closely anyway.
 
I don't think there can be any expectation of a similar poll bump for Labour once a general election campaign is underway. I reckon we're stuck in a fairly evenly-matched logjam until one or the other party works out how to make inroads into the other's electoral coalition, while holding on to everything they already have. I can't see how that's done myself, and evidence suggests it's a question that's taxing them too...
 
I don't think there can be any expectation of a similar poll bump for Labour once a general election campaign is underway. I reckon we're stuck in a fairly evenly-matched logjam until one or the other party works out how to make inroads into the other's electoral coalition, while holding on to everything they already have. I can't see how that's done myself, and evidence suggests it's a question that's taxing them too...
the next GE will be after March 2019 and the kaleidoscope will turn
 
I don't think there can be any expectation of a similar poll bump for Labour once a general election campaign is underway. I reckon we're stuck in a fairly evenly-matched logjam until one or the other party works out how to make inroads into the other's electoral coalition, while holding on to everything they already have. I can't see how that's done myself, and evidence suggests it's a question that's taxing them too...
advantage to the party out of power then? slight however it may be?
 
My current projections do have Labour on course for a being the largest party next time, but not by much. I can't see how this changes at the moment, but I'm prepared to adjust my models when new evidence comes in.
 
My current projections do have Labour on course for a being the largest party next time, but not by much. I can't see how this changes at the moment, but I'm prepared to adjust my models when new evidence comes in.
That would be nice, but if Labour continue to go backwards in places like Walsall and Stoke and Mansfield and Middlesbrough, as they did at the last general, that may not happen.

Sadly I didn't see much in these election results to see that changing, I would like to be wrong.
 
advantage to the party out of power then? slight however it may be?
i think so, still too many variables to guess...not least when exactly a GE takes place, under what conditions, which will be defined by what happens in March and the aftermath.
I think what is for certain is there'll be a car crash, with both Corbyn and May in the front seats, but May will come out the worse.
Thats not to say a new Tory leader might replace May and contest the election in good strength.
The next GE could still be a second referendum on Brexit somehow. Or not (as it may be a done deal). Who knows. But by British political standards its going to be drama
 
Here's a scenario...May gets some kind of Brexit deal and the Commons, however begrudgingly, votes it through... May gets a credibility bump, calls a snap election and wins it with a bigger majority.
I wouldn't bet on that though
 
I don't think there can be any expectation of a similar poll bump for Labour once a general election campaign is underway. I reckon we're stuck in a fairly evenly-matched logjam until one or the other party works out how to make inroads into the other's electoral coalition, while holding on to everything they already have. I can't see how that's done myself, and evidence suggests it's a question that's taxing them too...
I concur with all of that.
 
Here's a scenario...May gets some kind of Brexit deal and the Commons, however begrudgingly, votes it through... May gets a credibility bump, calls a snap election and wins it with a bigger majority.
I wouldn't bet on that though

These are strange days for sure but something pretty major would have to happen for May to call another early election and the rest of her party to trust her to deliver a majority. It'd have to be more than some optimistic polling.

I cannot see May leading the tories into the next election.
 
These are strange days for sure but something pretty major would have to happen for May to call another early election and the rest of her party to trust her to deliver a majority. It'd have to be more than some optimistic polling.

I cannot see May leading the tories into the next election.
Agree...but if she pulls Brexit off I think she'll stay... Supposedly she wants to. She'd have a case for it. We'll find out soon enough.

I'd bet car crash anyway.
 
There's no way May will call another early snap election. No chance. None.
I agree. I can't see any route to a general election before 2022. Last year, conditions were basically perfect for May, yet they still lost their majority. Those conditions or similar aren't going to happen before 2022, and even if they did they won't risk it again.
 
I agree. I can't see any route to a general election before 2022. Last year, conditions were basically perfect for May, yet they still lost their majority. Those conditions or similar aren't going to happen before 2022, and even if they did they won't risk it again.

All of that.

Plus
the derision she faced from her own supporters for calling on early election
the backlash from people sick of elections
the personal cost for her. she didn't look well during the last one, and basically hid on the edge of Reading for chunk of the campaign.

Nah.

There might be an early election. Maybe. But it won't be May's choice.
 
Back
Top Bottom