DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
those are 'calls to arms' not predictions, so you were talking from your fundament. I think owens a bit of a nob tbf but get him correct at least
Local Elections 2018
- Thread starter chilango
- Start date
Well a few years ago Labour wouldn't have wasted their time in Kensington or Westminster, so even a 'call to arms' as you put it does raise expectations.
Anyway I think I'm a wee bit electioned out.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
As shown above Owen Jones wasn't predicting a spanking ffs - he was over a week ago suggesting (based on some then not public polling he had access to somehow) that even the predictions at the sensible top-end of excellent labour results were likely to be disappointed. Stop just posting shit that you think happened. Or just stop posting preferably.
A terrible election for every party except the Lib Dems then? Shows the short memories of the British voters.
cantsin
Well-Known Member
your wisdom and insight will be much missed in this thread
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Nah.
Labour did all right. Not incredible, but pretty good. Won the largest number of council seats, with highest number of gains.
Tories really didn't do that well, despite the spin we're hearing. Down seats despite picking up much of the UKiP collapse and winning control of a few councils.
Lib Dems did well albeit from a very low base. Seem concentrated in isolated pockets. Fuckers.
Greens did okay too. Picking up the odd seat almost anywhere now. Tiny though and no sign of a breakthrough anywhere. Losing seats in Norwich must hurt.
UKIP are done as a force in local elections, for now at least. Their voters still exist though. Write them off at your peril.
Doesn't say much h about a future GE tbh. All still to play for.
Hollis
bloody furious
I think it's a pretty awful result if you're a Corbyn supporter. That he can only get 35% when it's this diabolical government, says a lot. And given that the libdems have been trounced the last few years. Instead, he's lost more support to the middle-ground.
I looked up the results in 1996 and Labour were on 43% and Tories on 29% in the equivalent elections.
Saying it's "okay" is in my eyes burying your head in the sand... (albeit the Tories just might self-destruct even more..)
I looked up the results in 1996 and Labour were on 43% and Tories on 29% in the equivalent elections.
Saying it's "okay" is in my eyes burying your head in the sand... (albeit the Tories just might self-destruct even more..)
I don't go on Facebook but the outgoing Tory just posted up a massive rant about labour dirty tricks and lies
Most people responded saying 'why did you not bother campaigning' and stating 'austerity' as the reason they could no longer vote Tory
Will miss the modern face of British voters:
View attachment 134445
oh dear indeed
Nice ageism Badgers
Any update on this?
Lurdan
old wave
Not in the sense of being a direct successor organisation. The four remaining Councillors who had first been elected on the Respect ticket all lost their seats last night but only one of these was standing for PATH. And only one of the four had survived the 2010 sweep out of Respect Councillors.
PATH and Aspire both derived from Tower Hamlets First the name used in the 2014 elections by the coalition around Rahman's Mayoralty. FWIW the PATH Councillors contained more of the part of that coalition which had originally been in Labour, whereas most of the Aspire Councillors were first elected as Respect or THF. However PATH was a much smaller grouping primarily built around Rabina Khan's run for Mayor.
maomao
普費斯
Three Tories elected in my ward which seemed odd till I looked at the map. We're definitely in the poorest corner of the ward. Meanwhile Havering Council is still under no overall control because of twenty four councillors that are either independents or representing local residents associations. Given the areas they represent I'm sure they're just as bad as Tories but it's impressive in a way to not be governed solely by party politics.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
does the BBC show anything but unwavering support for the Tory's anymore
seeming as most newspapers and television news sites are leading towards the torys
at the moment surprised the election was not worse for labour
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Quite a lot of Tory MPs pay good money for that apparently.
Puddy_Tat
happy mew year
they did have someone from 'progress' on earlier
i don't know quite how they explained it was all jeremy corbyn's fault, i changed channel...
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Does it? On what basis? Make a blooming argument rather just giving us a reckon.
What were the LDs on in 1996? What was the political context of 96? How does it relate to today?
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
There was a substantial swing from Conservative to Labour and a year later on 1 May 97 Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide victory at the GE in the biggest swing to Labour on record, that said the same day they (the Tories) got flattened nationally but did well in the 1997 LE getting better results than the year before. 1998 was another great LE for Labour and 1999 was a good one for the Tories
1997 was a freak result by any standards, one of the high spots for me was the look on Portillo's face when he realised he had lost his seat to Stephen Twigg, watched it live on telly it was a great moment.
This lends a fair bit of credence to the theory that LE's are not a good predictor for GE's and the next GE is up for grabs, maybe Labour will win, maybe they'll lose but nothing on Thursday is a guide to what will happen.
Hollis
bloody furious
The one consistent trend does seem to be that that the party in power does better in general elections than the local elections in the year before an election (I've looked back through the data). To that extent they're not a great predictor for the opposition party if it does well in a local election winning in the subsequent GE. But seeing that Corbyn hasn't even achieved that here.. I wouldn't be too optimistic about his chances..
toblerone3
Grrrrr
Windrush didn't affect swing voters in Barnet as much as the Anti Semitism thing.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
What's that based on?
toblerone3
Grrrrr
Nothing. Its a hypothesis based on a hunch. Many of the people must disgusted by the Windrush scandal were not going to vote Tory anyway.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Yes, and many of the people most exercised about anti-Semitism in the Labour party were never going to vote Labour. Barnet has never had a Labour-controlled council, so I'm not sure the fact it still doesn't can be put down to anything topical. It's possible, granted, but I don't see that it's obvious.
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redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
2017 UK local election national vote shares
Con 38%
Lab 27%
LD 18%
Good thing for Labour that there wasn't a subsequent GE
I think the patterns re: local elections & general elections can tell us something, but they aren't currently that reliable as the UKIP collapse is throwing things off balance - and it will do in local elections for the next two or three years until they're all gone.
It would be foolish of anyone to assume a nailed-on Labour victory next time - politics are unpredictable, and the obstacles are considerable - but the models book-eating political scientists use to predict results are broken right now, so I wouldn't give them much credence either.
It would be foolish of anyone to assume a nailed-on Labour victory next time - politics are unpredictable, and the obstacles are considerable - but the models book-eating political scientists use to predict results are broken right now, so I wouldn't give them much credence either.
Nor would I, but we don't have anything better at least not yet.
Certainly the 'Peter Snow swingometer' type models which worked reasonably well for years (up to and including the first couple of nu Lab victories) started to break down after the post Iraq war Lib Dem surge and haven't really been much cop since. Sindy ref and Brexit pretty much fucked them altogether.
So in 2017 we saw Tories take seats in places like Middlesbrough and Mansfield and Stoke on Trent- that would normally indicate a really good night for them, but of course they lost their majority nationally.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
What leads you to believe there will be an election next year? One isn't due till 2022 (if the Tories can hang on that long) so by your argument we should be waiting for the LE results of 2021 not 2018
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
I'm neither a Labour nor Corbyn supporter, but it really has to be stressed that these results are not a reflection on GE votes for Corbyn led Labour.
Turnout was way lower than in a GE. If Corbyn is to win, he'll be doing so with the votes of those who don't always/often vote.
People will vote differently in locals than GEs. I know a fair few people (incl. myself) who voted Labour in the GE but didn't (and wouldn't) in the locals the results in Reading East wards such as my own back this up I think.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Easter 2019 is a likely date for the next GE - it will be just after Brexit (so after the negotiations are done but before the worst of it hits), the students will be at home rather than at marginals and its only one NHS winter crisis away so there will be more Tory voters still alive than if they wait until 2022.
toblerone3
Grrrrr
Vote share at subsequent general election was
Labour 40% + 13% points
Conservative 42% + 4% points
So with the parties level on 35% in the 2018 locals if the trend from 2017 repeats itself, Labour will win with 48% and the Tories on 39%.
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