Italy v Spain - Tuesday 06/07 - 20:00

[The39thStep]

Football 365 have watched the tournament as well I suppose.

This is Italy FC and they believe in truly unbeatable

Italy play like a club side; they care like a club side. Forget who 'deserved' to win as Spain impressed because Italy are immense.

www.football365.com

You know best though.

I've got money on them to win and a saver bet to reach the final

 

[The39thStep]

As far as winning strategies go, deciding to only try and start winning matches once they got to the latter stages of the tournament didn't seem to work out for them.

not as simple as that.

 

[Favelado]

I've got money on them to win and a saver bet to reach the final

Maybe they will or maybe they won’t. Just picking Belboid up on his know-it-all tone.

 

[strung out]

not as simple as that.

They're out of the tournament having only won one match. That's pretty simple.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

not as simple as that.

I warmed to Spain over the tournament. I thought they were just horrible to watch at first, but they improved through the tournament. That's what you want, surely.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

They're out of the tournament having only won one match. That's pretty simple.

By your reckoning, in 2016 Portugal won the whole thing having only won one match, vs the mighty Wales. That wasn't a bad strategy.

 

[strung out]

By your reckoning, in 2016 Portugal won the whole thing having only won one match, vs the mighty Wales. That wasn't a bad strategy.

Yeah, not bad if it comes off. Didn't for Spain though.

 

[JTG]

To win games you need to be able to hit a barn door

 

[belboid]

As someone who has watched the tournament better than I have, who do you think is going to win?

Doing the maths on the bookies current odds....

Italy are 5/6 to win the whole thing (55%)
England are roughly 2/5 (71.5%) to go through, Denmark 5/2 (28.5%)

That works out at, if Italy were to play the final 100 times, they'd play 28.5 against Denmark, winning 20 or 21. As they'd win 55 overall, that means they would win 34 or 35 against England, out of the 71.5 available, with England claiming 36 or 37. Hence, even the bookies think England are narrow favourites.

Which sounds about right to me. Especially with the at home thing. Two very good defenses, strikers not scoring consistently (tho England are scoring more as we go on, whilst Italy's strike rate has dropped off). They have a serious injury to a key player, but all of England are available, at the moment.

Owt can happen, of course, but England will be narrow favourites, deservedly and there is nothing to indicate that Italy could deal with England any better than England could deal with Italy.

 

[belboid]

Football 365 have watched the tournament as well I suppose.

This is Italy FC and they believe in truly unbeatable

Italy play like a club side; they care like a club side. Forget who 'deserved' to win as Spain impressed because Italy are immense.

www.football365.com

You know best though.

That's as ridiculously hyperbolic as a bloody Sun report on England.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Got to factor in the bookies' margin, of course.

The best value bet there is probably Denmark to beat England at 5/2.

Someone who knows more than me can say better, but isn't odds of 5/6 directly after a game (with presumably very few bets in yet) a bit of a standard opening gambit?

 

[belboid]

Got to factor in the bookies' margin, of course.

The best value bet there is probably Denmark to beat England at 5/2.

england are 1/3 to qualify, denmark 9/4, so I'm rounding to 5/2.

Slightly different versions are, of course, available, but either way its basically evens for the two of them in the final.

 

[Favelado]

Owt can happen, of course, but England will be narrow favourites, deservedly and there is nothing to indicate that Italy could deal with England any better than England could deal with Italy.

Nothing except for Italy's 33 game unbeaten run and record in major tournaments.

Apart from that nothing.

Although you're the one who really understands tournaments when you're watching them. I am hopeless.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't see how records in past major tournaments really matter, tbh. Different players. And the 33 game unbeaten run counts for little. It will end. Perhaps next game. They won on the penalty lottery tonight, after a terrible opening pen, and not cos of their amazingness but cos anyone can fuck up a penalty.

People talk up various things, like England not beating Germany in a knockout match since 1966, but they don't matter. England have a 100% record in major finals, for instance. Irrelevant stats that don't mean anything.

 

[belboid]

Nothing except for Italy's 33 game unbeaten run and record in major tournaments.

Apart from that nothing.

Although you're the one who really understands tournaments when you're watching them. I am hopeless.

ohh stop being an arse. England haven't conceded. Both have great team cohesion. Runs mean nothing, you can go unbeaten 68 games in a row and then lose the next six. (ohh, and Italy just played a team who couldn't hit a barn door)

To repeat my point: there is nothing to indicate that Italy could deal with England any better than England could deal with Italy.

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Catholicism?

In the pub tonight a Spanish drinker referred to the reformation as the first Brexit.

 

[belboid]

In the pub tonight a Spanish drinker referred to the reformation as the first Brexit.

Germany beat us to that too

 

[Maggot]

 

[otzenpunk]

It seems like Alba misunderstood the coin toss, and Chiellini either a) just found it funny or b) took it as an opportunity to niggle him about it under the guise of jollies.

Still doesn't explain why he thought punching Alba in the face in front of all three officials and the camera was a good idea though

I don't think Alba "misunderstood" the coin toss. The ref is throwing the toss, and Chiellini and the assistant ref immediately point to the Italy side of the stadium, which is obviously not what Alba had wanted. I don't understand what's said, but watching it yesterday I interpreted Alba's gesture as a joke itself, maybe paired with a distant hope to confuse the ref enough to trick him to rerun the toss. Chielleini at least took the joke and made a laugh out of it. I don't see a "punch" at all. More of a friendly gesture like "nice try, lad, you almost had me".

 

[JTG]

I don't think Alba "misunderstood" the coin toss. The ref is throwing the toss, and Chiellini and the assistant ref immediately point to the Italy side of the stadium, which is obviously not what Alba had wanted. I don't understand what's said, but watching it yesterday I interpreted Alba's gesture as a joke itself, maybe paired with a distant hope to confuse the ref enough to trick him to rerun the toss. Chielleini at least took the joke and made a laugh out of it. I don't see a "punch" at all. More of a friendly gesture like "nice try, lad, you almost had me".

Yeah it's typically exaggerated Italian bonhomie - perhaps played for psychology, perhaps not.

 

[neonwilderness]

 

[CNT36]

To make it worse he did the perfect pissed bloke confronted by a bouncer face.

 

[jimbarkanoodle]

If England get to the final, Italy will be a far tougher opposition that Spain.

Dickhead of a steward, getting way ahead of their brief. They knew it was a player but just wanted to manhandle him anyway in a false sense of importance.

 

[planetgeli]

england are 1/3 to qualify, denmark 9/4, so I'm rounding to 5/2.

Slightly different versions are, of course, available, but either way its basically evens for the two of them in the final.

What you've really got to factor in is UK bookies taking out of proportion amounts on an England win. This makes England much more 'favourites' than they actually are.

 

[belboid]

What you've really got to factor in is UK bookies taking out of proportion amounts on an England win. This makes England much more 'favourites' than they actually are.

bookies are now international cos they're all online. I'd get pretty much the same odds if I went to an Italian site.

The sports analysis thing the guardian always go to, whose name I cant remember offhand. has England at 68% to go through, compared to my 71%, so the difference will be pretty marginal.

 

[belboid]

Talking of which, BetFred’s odds tonight are:

Italy 15/8
Draw 16/8
England 14/8

Which sounds right after tonight’s match. If Italy capitalise on England’s nerves in the first half hour, it should be theirs.

But I’m sure we’ll discuss this more when Badgers starts the relevant thread

 

[Favelado]

ohh stop being an arse. England haven't conceded. Both have great team cohesion. Runs mean nothing, you can go unbeaten 68 games in a row and then lose the next six. (ohh, and Italy just played a team who couldn't hit a barn door)

To repeat my point: there is nothing to indicate that Italy could deal with England any better than England could deal with Italy.

Know it all twat.

 

[strung out]

Know it all twat.

He was right though, it was a draw.

 

[belboid]

Know it all twat.

You could just say ‘okay, you were right’

 

[Favelado]

You could just say ‘okay, you were right’

Italy dealt with England as I said. You were wrong.