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Italian politics and elections - news and discussion

M5S and PD now falling out a bit over the Euro Recovery Fund. Matteo Renzi split from PD shortly after they signed the coalition deal with M5S, taking some MPs with him to form a new party, "Italia Viva", which is, hilariously, still part of the coalition with PD and M5S despite splitting in opposition to that coalition. Quite ridiculous really. Anyway there is every chance that the government could collapse quite soon and if we go back to the polls I fully expect Lega to win the most votes of any single party, even if that still might not put them in a position to lead the country. Salvini as Premier is not a threat that has gone away. And what's worse is the increasing popularity of a politician even more racist and disgusting than Salvini is: Giorgia Meloni, leader of "Fratelli d'Italia", openly neo-fash who still use the flame logo of the MSI
 
Flavour said:
M5S and PD now falling out a bit over the Euro Recovery Fund. Matteo Renzi split from PD shortly after they signed the coalition deal with M5S, taking some MPs with him to form a new party, "Italia Viva", which is, hilariously, still part of the coalition with PD and M5S despite splitting in opposition to that coalition. Quite ridiculous really. Anyway there is every chance that the government could collapse quite soon and if we go back to the polls I fully expect Lega to win the most votes of any single party, even if that still might not put them in a position to lead the country. Salvini as Premier is not a threat that has gone away. And what's worse is the increasing popularity of a politician even more racist and disgusting than Salvini is: Giorgia Meloni, leader of "Fratelli d'Italia", openly neo-fash who still use the flame logo of the MSI
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You mean that populism has not died! :eek:

Yeah the situation in Italy shows how silly the 'crash of populism' narrative some liberals were promoting is.
 
Just finished Broder's book on Italian populism so interesting timing.
Renzi’s manoeuvre has left observers baffled over his motives. His popularity has severely plummeted since he was forced to quit as premier after his failed referendum in late 2016 and Italia Viva attracts less than 3% of voters in opinion polls.
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It does seem like a strange move from Renzi, I don't see the possibility of it benefitting him. Anyway the Lega and FdI will be rubbing their hands
 
And we're back!

The carving up of the EU recovery money has caused a huge fallout within the governing coalition (which was, as you may recall, the Neolib centre-left Partito Democratico (PD) and the populists of Five Star (some left, some right positions))...

Then shortly after this coalition was formed old PM Matteo Renzi (formerly PD) split from PD taking a couple of his loyalists with him to a form a new party called Italia Viva, which was, until today, part of the governing coalition (as they split from PD but not from the government coalition)...

Renzi has now made what I think is a huge tactical error by calling Conte (supposedly neutral PM chosen by Five Star) bluff over the carving up of this recovery money.

Basically Renzi says not enough of that money will go to the national healthcare system, and obviously he is totally right about that (not that it changes the fact he's a wanker).

Conte says "that's the fucking way it is now either accept it and shut the fuck up or get the hell out of my coalition".

Renzi has now formally withdrawn his party Italia Viva from the ruling coalition, meaning it no longer has a majority in parliament.

There are a couple of things that can happen now:
1) Conte could form a THIRD coalition (this is his second, remember: the first was between Five Star and Matteo Salvini's Lega) though this would be quite difficult without involving the so-called Centre-right coalition of parties (Lega, Forza Italia and the outright fascists of Fratelli d'Italia)
2) Go back to the voting booth. the italian people will be extremely pissed off if it comes to this as nobody has any appetite for an electoral campaign let alone an election in the middle of this pandemic. It's mandatory for people to vote where they are "resident" in italy, which may not be where they actually live, meaning shit loads of people have to travel across the country (often from the North to the South) in order to vote. that is obviously quite impractical right now.

Anyway, italian politics remains extremely complicated yet simultaneously quite boring and shit.

I predict rump-PD (sans Renzi) and Five Star would do alright out of potential future elections, they are not that hated. Salvini would probably not make massive advances, and would likely shed some of his vote rightwards to fascist Fratelli d'Italia. Renzi will be blamed for causing the crisis (even if for ostensibly noble reasons) if it goes to the polls and I predict his "Italia Viva" would get thoroughly crushed.
 
Just looking at the polls the most obvious result of an election now would be a Lega/Forza/FdI lash-up - do you think the polls are out?
 
Cheers for that Flavour agree with much of what you say.
(BTW this is also being discussed on Italian election thread)

One really interesting bit of Broder's book is the evidence of M5S acting as a gateway for the Lega, so there seems to be little transfer of votes from PD to Lega but a certain % of votes going PD -> M5S -> Lega (of course Broder's book has been partially overtaken by the COVID situation) And at the same time you seem to now be having votes moving within the right from Lega (which at one time had been for FI) to FdI
 
Conte hangs on to the big seat by the skin of his teeth after a vote in the Senate today.

There have been enough defections, sympathetic votes from minority parties not currently in the coalition and others who are certainly acting out of altruism and definitely not their own self-interest (including some Forza Italia people) to give Conte's coalition a majority in the Lower House (the Camera dei Deputati) but there's been a lovely sort of draw in the Upper House (the Senate) today. 156 votes in favor of Conte staying with his current hodge-podge coalition covered in bruises and plasters, 140 against and 16 abstentions. The right will call him illegitimate from ow on (big deal) and he'll trundle forward spending the EU recovery money as him and his EU-appointed technocrats see fit (as opposed to how the MPs themselves would like to spend it, which is what Renzi would like).

Very tenuous situation. Be surprised if he makes it to the end of the year tbh. But he's still quite popular on the street. That won't be what brings him down. It'll be in-fighting, same as usual.

www.bbc.com

Italy PM Conte wins crucial Senate vote to stay in power

But Giuseppe Conte lacks an absolute majority in the Senate and the row over his future continues.
www.bbc.com
 
Think Renzi knows how badly he's fucked this up now, he's going to come back with tail between legs asking for absolutely tiny concessions in order to "agree" to come back into the Coalition. I think Conte will tell him to get fucked.

More worringly:

www.repubblica.it

Governo, sondaggio YouTrend: Lega più debole, Forza Italia risale. Arretra il Pd

Ancora presto per pesare gli effetti dello showdown tra Conte e Renzi: complessivamente in calo l'area di maggioranza. Il partito di Salvini con il 23,1 pe…
www.repubblica.it www.repubblica.it

Latest polls show the following preferences:

Lega 23,1% (-0,5%)
PD al 20,1% (-0,5%)
Fratelli d'Italia 16,3% (+0,1%)
M5S 15,0% (-0,1%)
Forza Italia 8,0% (+0,6%)
Azione al 3,5% (+0,3%)
La Sinistra al 3,2% (=),
Italia Viva al 3,0% (-0,1%)
+Europa al 2,0% (=)
i Verdi all'1,7% (=)

Reminder: Azione, Verdi and PD could all be described as neoliberal centre-left. La Sinistra social democrats. Italia Viva and +Europa dead-on neoliberal centre. Forza Italia neoliberal centre-right, Lega protectionist/non-neolib non-centre right, and Fratelli the furthest right of all. M5S neither left/right but... above/below.
 
So FI/Lega/FdI combination just under 50%, centre-left + M5S just over 40%.
If those figures end up being more or less accurate the only way I can see a government without Lega/FdI is a another technocratic mash-up, the PD (+hangers on) and M5S striking another deal with FI. Which would only play into the hands of Lega/FdI longer term.
 
Conte resigning as PM with intention of trying to form a new majority.
Italy’s prime minister Giuseppe Conte will resign on Tuesday in a tactical move aimed at maximising his chances of leading a new government.

Conte will hold a cabinet meeting at 9am CET before officially handing in his resignation to president Sergio Mattarella, his office announced in a statement.
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Hard to come up with a better example of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

Also Dave Broder piece on Renzi's actions.
The ideological divides at work here ought not to be overstated. Conte’s second government has proven no more than mildly social-democratic, even faced with the need for urgent pandemic response measures. Where it has intervened in failing firms (in 2020 part-renationalizing highways operator Autostrade per l’Italia and bailing out airline Alitalia), such moves have only made small inroads into over three decades of selloffs of public companies.
....
Yet while Conte’s administration has never fundamentally challenged neoliberal assumptions or European spending limits, even mild concessions to labor and welfare are too much for the fundamentalists of Italia Viva. It echoes hysterical denunciations by centrist outlets and Bocconi School economists accusing Conte of creating a “new Venezuela,” and imposing a “North Korean–style” layoffs ban in response to COVID-19.
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redsquirrel said:
So FI/Lega/FdI combination just under 50%, centre-left + M5S just over 40%.
If those figures end up being more or less accurate the only way I can see a government without Lega/FdI is a another technocratic mash-up, the PD (+hangers on) and M5S striking another deal with FI. Which would only play into the hands of Lega/FdI longer term.
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Yeah they'll go the technocrat route and it is a double bonus for Lega and FdI because
A) get to call out technocrat bullshit
B) continue to not have to take the blame for handling of Covid situation
 
Technocrats incoming!!! The negotiations for a third round of Conte led government have failed.

President mattarella will meet with ex ECB Bank chief and Technocrat supreme Mario Draghi tomorrow and prob appoint him as PM
 
Flavour said:
Technocrats incoming!!! The negotiations for a third round of Conte led government have failed.

President mattarella will meet with ex ECB Bank chief and Technocrat supreme Mario Draghi tomorrow and prob appoint him as PM
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PD and FI (and Renzi) support can be counted on. Broder suggesting on twitter that Lega may be willing to support, or at least not oppose, Draghi in a similar manner to 1995.
 
redsquirrel said:
PD and FI (and Renzi) support can be counted on. Broder suggesting on twitter that Lega may be willing to support, or at least not oppose, Draghi in a similar manner to 1995.
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I think Salvini quite likes Draghi, after all, Draghi will do plenty of stuff that Salvini is really in favour of (privatize stuff, attack workers' rights) while still doing enough other stuff that Salvini can use as a stick to beat him with and ensure the continued growth of Lega as a political force, when, eventually, the next elections come round (i.e. Draghi will increase some taxes, will probably attack pensions) so it's win-win really.

This is also going to even further crush the PD because they'll be the ones split over it, between supporting austerity measures as necessary and wanting, somewhere deep inside, give voice to that faint murmur of a feeling that says maybe they should say something in favour of workers' rights.

It's another fantastic stitch-up which will primarily benefit the rich, the banks, and the populist "anti-establishment" parties like Lega who actually love the rich and the banks despite pretending not to.
 
I'll be interested to see what M5S do. They are going to be torn between not wanting to go to the polls and supporting the type of politics they were supposed to represent the opposition to. I can see splits.
 
And it's going as predicted.
Mario Draghi, the former European Central Bank chief, has accepted a mandate to try to form a new Italian government as the country seeks a way out of the political crisis triggered by the collapse of its most recent coalition.
Click to expand...
M5S opposing, but Berlusconi indicating supporting and Lega and FdI keeping their options open
The Five Star Movement (M5S), the biggest party in parliament, said it would not back a technical administration led by Draghi, arguing that a political government was the only solution. Nicola Zingaretti, the Democratic party leader, said he would meet leaders of M5S and Free and Equal, a small leftwing group in the alliance.
....
Matteo Salvini, the leader of the opposition far-right League, and Giorgia Meloni, who heads the smaller far-right Brothers of Italy, both repeated calls for early elections. But the former prime minister and Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi appeared to back the plan, recalling his “longstanding esteem” for Draghi.
Click to expand...
 
Yep. No surprises at all so far. Grillo openly voicing his support for Draghi maybe the closest thing to a surprise but even that--not really. Di maio keeping his mouth shut.
 
Summary of the situation in Jacobin, echoing what's been said on this thread.
The key question now is how Italian political forces and ordinary citizens will react to this outrageous departure from democratic principles and the renewed attempt to subordinate Italian politics to the fiscal responsibility demanded by Brussels. It is unlikely that Democrats will resist the calls for “responsibility” made by Mattarella, who himself hails from this party. A parliamentary majority could be found with the votes of PD, Lega, Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, plus the usual turncoats that famously abound in the Italian parliament.

M5S is the only formation that may say no — though even this is hardly assured. Doing so could help it regain some of its street credentials, lost after three years in government as part of two different coalitions. Italians are angry at Renzi and the political chaos he has ushered in, and a number of groups have already taken to the street during the pandemic to voice their concerns. If Draghi is not careful, he may have to deal not only with a health and economic emergency, but also with a public order one.

In this dismal situation, the only hope is that the citizenry that has mostly remained quiescent during this crisis eventually wakes up. If this does not happen, a technocratic government could soon lead to a reactionary government led by Salvini’s Lega and Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist Brothers of Italy, when the next elections come.
Click to expand...

EDIT: Also piece on the FT
Mr Salvini on Wednesday did not rule out supporting a Draghi government, but said this would be conditional on the policies that were proposed. Yet Mr Salvini has repeatedly called for new general elections, which would allow him to capitalise on his party’s strength in national opinion polls. “For us, supporting Draghi would be an effort and a big gamble,” Edoardo Rixi, a League MP, told the Financial Times. “On the one hand we appreciate his skills, on the other we fear a government that does not protect the national interest. This is the dilemma that grips not only the League, but the entire centre-right.” Vito Crimi, the interim leader of the Five Star Movement, on Tuesday ruled out supporting a technocratic government led by Mr Draghi. However, several Five Star lawmakers said the party was heavily divided on the issue and could potentially split.
Click to expand...
 
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The europhile liberals on my facebook, of which there are many, are split on the issue (we're talking people who vote PD or other fringe left groups like LeU or La Sinistra) -- some of them commending Mattarella's leadership in the crisis, in favor of Draghi as somebody "competent" and echoing this shit about "high profile" leaders... others much much less enthusiastic -- lots of hostility for Renzi for having brought this about (and, lest we forget, this is not the first time he has effectively "chosen" who was PM -- Draghi is very much "renzi's choice", or at least that's how it is seen by many. As Renzi basically self-appointed himself as PM after sabotaging the incumbent Letta back in 2014, then ensured the first Conte government by refusing to allow PD to make a coalition with M5S, leading to the M5S-Lega government which compromised on Conte, and now, in bringing down the second Conte government, he's at it again).

Everyone seems to be aware that this is just a stop-gap anti-democratic stitch up to avoid the possibility of Salvini and Meloni running the country, but no ideas on what to do about the popularity of Salvini and Meloni. Tragically short-sighted really.
 
Flavour said:
The europhile liberals on my facebook, of which there are many, are split on the issue (we're talking people who vote PD or other fringe left groups like LeU or La Sinistra) -- some of them commending Mattarella's leadership in the crisis, in favor of Draghi as somebody "competent" and echoing this shit about "high profile" leaders... others much much less enthusiastic -- lots of hostility for Renzi for having brought this about (and, lest we forget, this is not the first time he has effectively "chosen" who was PM -- Draghi is very much "renzi's choice", or at least that's how it is seen by many. As Renzi basically self-appointed himself as PM after sabotaging the incumbent Letta back in 2014, then ensured the first Conte government by refusing to allow PD to make a coalition with M5S, leading to the M5S-Lega government which compromised on Conte, and now, in bringing down the second Conte government, he's at it again).

Everyone seems to be aware that this is just a stop-gap anti-democratic stitch up to avoid the possibility of Salvini and Meloni running the country, but no ideas on what to do about the popularity of Salvini and Meloni. Tragically short-sighted really.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that picture Flavour how much support is there for going to the polls now - when the right block still seem to be polling slightly below 50% and Conte has some popularity?
 
redsquirrel said:
Thanks for that picture Flavour how much support is there for going to the polls now - when the right block still seem to be polling slightly below 50% and Conte has some popularity?
Click to expand...

Usual disclaimer that this is anecdotal stuff from a wide range of people but most of whom are on the progressive/"leftish" spectrum and live in the North , but... yes. Very little support for going to the polls now among the Europhiles who prioritize "getting the Recovery money" (they actually capitalize "Recovery" -- echoing the Italian press, which I find quite bizarre) in order to stave off economic disaster. Seems to be a fair dose of naive optimism that an effective Draghi government would dent support for the generally eurosceptic (when it suits them) far-right.

I'm not so optimistic.

In terms of Conte: he's gone. Might be given a Ministerial post by Draghi to keep the M5S sweet but don't expect him to be a big voice weighing in on stuff in the future (like Renzi is, against all the odds).

e2a: literally everyone who is against going to the polls using the pandemic as an excuse, which I think is quite transparently bullshit
 
Good news! Or is it? Not sure: there seems to be a split in the fash alliance (Lega and FdI) as Lega (who got much more votes than FdI last election, hence why they were able to form a majority coalition with M5S) are seeing them dollar signs and weighing up being part of Draghi's techno-government (which sadly will not feature much techno music) so they can grab a couple of ministerial posts and be part of the "Recovery" -- Meloni, leader of FdI, is super pissed off about it, as she definitely won't be invited to the table and is the loudest voice calling for ELECTIONS NOW! (polls suggest FdI would be the largest gainer in any such elections, perhaps taking as much as 15% of the vote and almost catching up with Lega )

Lega having any ministerial power = bad
Lega and FdI falling out and fighting each other rather than singing their usual racist shit in happy unison = quite good, makes a change from it being the left constantly stabbing each other
 
Flavour said:
Good news! Or is it? Not sure: there seems to be a split in the fash alliance (Lega and FdI) as Lega (who got much more votes than FdI last election, hence why they were able to form a majority coalition with M5S) are seeing them dollar signs and weighing up being part of Draghi's techno-government (which sadly will not feature much techno music) so they can grab a couple of ministerial posts and be part of the "Recovery" -- Meloni, leader of FdI, is super pissed off about it, as she definitely won't be invited to the table and is the loudest voice calling for ELECTIONS NOW! (polls suggest FdI would be the largest gainer in any such elections, perhaps taking as much as 15% of the vote and almost catching up with Lega )
Click to expand...
This goes back to something I mentioned on the reading populism thread with the "centre"-right (FI) feeding into populist radical right (Lega) which then in turn feeds into the populist even further right (FdI).
 
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