How likely is war with Russia?
- Thread starter frogwoman
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
the chances are getting worse by the day
ska invita
back on the other side
sad in itself :{seen I just started the same thread in 2015
mod
A modernist
If this becomes the wanton slaughter of civilians (there's a argument it had already) then its going to be difficult for the West to just watch.
Am i being naive and hopeful to think the Russian generals might turn against Putin? Or the protests will grow into an attempted upraising?
Am i being naive and hopeful to think the Russian generals might turn against Putin? Or the protests will grow into an attempted upraising?
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
There can be no war from NATO with Russia that isn't nuclear.
So hope not.
So hope not.
elbows
Well-Known Member
It remains unlikely enough that I wont be droning on about it in my usual style unless far more dramatic developments than we have seen so far happen.
The USA wants to turn its attention elsewhere (China etc) and wants European countries to do more of the heavy lifting when it comes to the future of security in Europe. Russia thinks Europe and the USA are weaker in some key ways than they used to be, and is aware that the USA wants to focus elsewhere in future. They are also bitter and frustrated that they havent been included in European security decisions, and want to regain their sphere of influence whilst also making threatening enough noises that other countries take its demands more seriously.
In these circumstances Im not going to ruin my quality of life by generating and directing huge quantities of fear in that direction at this stage. If things deteriorate past a certain point then I will change my stance, but for now I'm not going to let these typical power games cast a new shadow over my existence. Instead I will treat them as part of the same shadow that has already hung over humanity for the entire atomic age, one that I already learnt to live with but would love to see the back of.
The USA wants to turn its attention elsewhere (China etc) and wants European countries to do more of the heavy lifting when it comes to the future of security in Europe. Russia thinks Europe and the USA are weaker in some key ways than they used to be, and is aware that the USA wants to focus elsewhere in future. They are also bitter and frustrated that they havent been included in European security decisions, and want to regain their sphere of influence whilst also making threatening enough noises that other countries take its demands more seriously.
In these circumstances Im not going to ruin my quality of life by generating and directing huge quantities of fear in that direction at this stage. If things deteriorate past a certain point then I will change my stance, but for now I'm not going to let these typical power games cast a new shadow over my existence. Instead I will treat them as part of the same shadow that has already hung over humanity for the entire atomic age, one that I already learnt to live with but would love to see the back of.
Humberto
Take me up to Monto
There's a clear right and wrong here, which the stated positions of individual Nato member nations all seem to agree on: that the Russian government has acted aggressively and without justification. So, as people have said, Putin is flouting 'the rules'. However, there would be next to no chance at all for a good outcome for anyone if Nato or Russia deliberately sought or tripped themselves into open war. So I think, it will be avoided. I don't see any motive for war from Nato's side, despite the horrors reported from Ukraine. Biden said 'give it a month', despite the fact that on day one there were people who understood that there would be humanitarian tragedy on an enormous scale. So for now I expect that will remain the plan.
From Putin's perspective: Putin will likely fail in some way because his position is not so sure in certain respects (e.g. economically) as he perhaps believed. His position has been undermined. So, he could seek peace and sell it as a victory to save face. Depends on how pragmatic he is, an assessment I can't make. So a lot would also depend on your assessment of him personally. And also whether he can he manage to keep going in terms of his authority when he is so clearly out of line already. Particularly when the consequences for the decision he made become clearer to Russians (as they already are). Will he 'double down' in desperation, and what would the Nato response be? This is a worry. We know he deliberately projects a 'strong-man' image; but this will be tested in the weeks ahead and if he he begins to look weak and out of touch he may be replaced. By who would be further speculation. It could well be someone just as wicked, but someone likely keen to allay the damage Russia has suffered in order to protect their interests and strengthen their position, and therefore seek de-escalation.
From Putin's perspective: Putin will likely fail in some way because his position is not so sure in certain respects (e.g. economically) as he perhaps believed. His position has been undermined. So, he could seek peace and sell it as a victory to save face. Depends on how pragmatic he is, an assessment I can't make. So a lot would also depend on your assessment of him personally. And also whether he can he manage to keep going in terms of his authority when he is so clearly out of line already. Particularly when the consequences for the decision he made become clearer to Russians (as they already are). Will he 'double down' in desperation, and what would the Nato response be? This is a worry. We know he deliberately projects a 'strong-man' image; but this will be tested in the weeks ahead and if he he begins to look weak and out of touch he may be replaced. By who would be further speculation. It could well be someone just as wicked, but someone likely keen to allay the damage Russia has suffered in order to protect their interests and strengthen their position, and therefore seek de-escalation.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think my fear is drag/spill-over.
For the neighbouring states, Ukraine is family, where they go on holiday, where their uncle lives, and a country with which they share some extremely unpleasant experiences of Russia.
They are probably going to see repeated, horrific stuff from Ukraine, on TV, on the telegram groups, from family and from an endless stream of refugees. There has long been a fear that they will, possibly, be left to the dogs by the western powers in NATO, not something that has been assauged by Germany's behaviour over the last decade, nor by Trump, nor by Brexit.
If it gets bad, and it stays bad, I think they will 'do stuff', a) because they are watching their friends get butchered in the street, and b) because they think they'll be next.
To what extent that crosses Russian red lines, how wary Russia is of crossing NATO red lines, how confident they are of NATO keeping to its word, and therefore providing a wall from behind which to poke the bear, are all questions to which the answer is 'dont know...'.
For the neighbouring states, Ukraine is family, where they go on holiday, where their uncle lives, and a country with which they share some extremely unpleasant experiences of Russia.
They are probably going to see repeated, horrific stuff from Ukraine, on TV, on the telegram groups, from family and from an endless stream of refugees. There has long been a fear that they will, possibly, be left to the dogs by the western powers in NATO, not something that has been assauged by Germany's behaviour over the last decade, nor by Trump, nor by Brexit.
If it gets bad, and it stays bad, I think they will 'do stuff', a) because they are watching their friends get butchered in the street, and b) because they think they'll be next.
To what extent that crosses Russian red lines, how wary Russia is of crossing NATO red lines, how confident they are of NATO keeping to its word, and therefore providing a wall from behind which to poke the bear, are all questions to which the answer is 'dont know...'.
Yeah, that's basically my thought process. Nobody now, probably even Putin, would say 'Yes' if asked if they want (or expect) a world war or much wider conflict across the EU. But the possibility of things getting much grimer and more involving wider people and countries in the weeks and months ahead is growing. And then imagine on top of that some terror bombings in Russian cities in retaliation for Ukraine, a border contact with Poland in which NATO troops die, or something similarly messy...
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I think the fact that Russian soldiers look likely to be busy in Ukraine for a long while, the risk of Putin taking on any other local countries must be reduced somewhat. And I think Putin does see NATO countries as risky, I think he has hinted at that in some of his public utterances.
That doesn't stop him being a danger to remaining non NATO countries in the region though, but I don't think he will attack more than one country at a time. And it does look like Ukraine will slow him up a lot.
As to the risk of direct war with Russia, i.e. NATO and Russia. How rational is Putin? Does he still have all his marbles? It is a great risk that any direct war between Russia and NATO might escalate to a nuclear exchange at which point there will be no winners.
What does concern me is that we somehow have to permit Putin a way out, I don't think anyone relishes the idea of a defeated Putin who has completely lost face and yet still has his fingers on the buttons of nuclear destruction.
That doesn't stop him being a danger to remaining non NATO countries in the region though, but I don't think he will attack more than one country at a time. And it does look like Ukraine will slow him up a lot.
As to the risk of direct war with Russia, i.e. NATO and Russia. How rational is Putin? Does he still have all his marbles? It is a great risk that any direct war between Russia and NATO might escalate to a nuclear exchange at which point there will be no winners.
What does concern me is that we somehow have to permit Putin a way out, I don't think anyone relishes the idea of a defeated Putin who has completely lost face and yet still has his fingers on the buttons of nuclear destruction.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Do you mean 'does he think like us'? If so no
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh these things take on a dynamic of their own and wherever we end up it's unlikely to be where we expected. And that's the scary thing,that this could embroil many countries really quickly - that what's happening now, terrible tho it is, could become much worse overnight
elbows
Well-Known Member
Although dont run too far with that idea or the likes of Sting will be tempted to sing to us again about the absurd idea that we would have to leave it to hope to indicate to us that Russians love their children too, rather than that love being a safe concept we can make assumptions about all day long. Of course they love their children too, and so there is at least some starting point for shared understanding and perception of the world and how high the stakes are, how unthinkable and undesirable the ultimate consequences of war between nuclear powers is.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure what this would be, and I also think the most dangerous thing is for this to end in any way looking like it was worthwhile from Putin's point of view.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
There are a few Twitter feeds reporting the Swedish Ministry of Defence is saying that four Russian aircraft, 2 Su-27 fighters and 2 Su-24 strike aircraft, flew within Swedish territorial airspace (the 12 mile limit) east of the Island of Gotland in the Baltic.
This is in the light of Russian threats to both Sweden and Finland over the issue of NATO membership.
This is in the light of Russian threats to both Sweden and Finland over the issue of NATO membership.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
And to improve matters.
A Romanian MiG-21 fighter has disappeared while flying near the Black Sea coast. the Search and Rescue helicopter sent to search for it has also disappeared.
Weather was crap. Five dead so far.
adevarul.ro
A Romanian MiG-21 fighter has disappeared while flying near the Black Sea coast. the Search and Rescue helicopter sent to search for it has also disappeared.
Weather was crap. Five dead so far.
MiG 21 LanceR prăbuşit în Dobrogea, pilotul a murit. Elicopterul IAR 330-Puma trimis în căutare a căzut şi el. Cei şapte militari de la bord, morţi VIDEO UPDATE
Un avion MiG 21 LanceR s-a prăbuşit în zona Cogealac, judeţul Constanţa, în seara de miercuri, 2 martie 2022, în jurul orei 20.00. Elicopterul IAR 330-Puma trimis în căutarea lui s-a prăbuşit şi el, la mică distanţă, la Gura Dobrogei, la 11 kilometri...
2hats
Dust.
Intercepted by Gripens. Su-2x probably out of Kaliningrad - a Global Hawk was up around there today.
Ryska stridsflygplan kränkte svenskt luftrum
På onsdagen kränkte fyra ryska stridsflyg svenskt luftrum. Flygvapnet genomförde en insats med Jas 39 Gripen ur incidentberedskapen och dokumenterade händelsen, i form av fotografering.
e2a: Kaliningrad surveyed from all sides today - also SwAF SIGINT orbiting out over the Baltic (daily) and army Guardrail along the N/NE border.
Last edited:
Are we expecting a Russian plane to get shot down in NATO airspace at some point?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Ordinarily, I'd say no - it's a deeply unfriendly act where the defending state is entitled to shoot down an intruder, but it's a big step.
However, the smoke of war is on the horizon, everyone reads the papers, there's very little time between crossing the 12 mile limit and flying over land, and you just never know if this is the one where the intruder is going to attack a radar site or go for an AWACS.
This is how incidents happen.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Most people with kids love them, but some don't. Others are indifferent or see them as a burden, or expect them to behave only in certain ways. Blokes in particular, but not exclusively so. Does Putin love his children? No idea. Did Goebbels love his kids, before he poisoned them? Who knows? What about Genghis Kahn? Or Julius Caesar? Etc etc.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Of course, it's unlikely that any of this would be happening if the Russian elite of the time hadn't let the Soviet Union go. I remember reading articles from various figures on the radical left, and others, predicting the chaos that an economic free-for-all would bring. The first wave of business adventurists from the West, who thought it would be easy, met the harder Russian lads, and so followed the mafia wars and the rise of the oligarchs. After the taming of Alexander Lebed, the much-touted Pinochet figure ('I'll kill hundreds of thousands so that millions can live better'), so, out of desperation, came Putin, to bring the oligarchs under ('his') control...
An early '90s interview with Roy Medvedev, I think in NLR, seems to stand out in my memory, where he advocated looking at the Chinese model... It was already too late, but if Gorbachev had been followed by a centralised state and a state-driven capitalism (as capitalism was going to be restored anyway), I doubt if we would have seen the present-day nightmare, as the West wouldn't have been so easily able to take such advantage of Russia's abject weakness that it gave rise to the resentments that built up in the mind of even a once apparently pragmatic president.
An early '90s interview with Roy Medvedev, I think in NLR, seems to stand out in my memory, where he advocated looking at the Chinese model... It was already too late, but if Gorbachev had been followed by a centralised state and a state-driven capitalism (as capitalism was going to be restored anyway), I doubt if we would have seen the present-day nightmare, as the West wouldn't have been so easily able to take such advantage of Russia's abject weakness that it gave rise to the resentments that built up in the mind of even a once apparently pragmatic president.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
If the Russians hadn't let the various republics go we'd have been looking at wars within them. I remember seeing the barricades by the parliament building in Tallinn in 1992, still there from the unrest prior to secession. It's not like peace in the USSR till everything came crashing down, there was shit happening all over the shop.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
The Russian Empire was only ever ethnically half Russian. That would not have lasted for ever. The empire, that is.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Happens on the water too. And all it takes in one misjudgment.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
I know, I saw some of it too. But, ugly as it would have been, it could have been put down eventually if the Soviet state hadn't been destroyed. It isn't my politics, but I think it's the reality. And that ignored minority who saw the increased potential for world war in the Soviet collapse are being proved correct even as we write.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Also not the politics that I've long identified myself with, but it's also clear that the Yugoslav state should have centralised and smashed nationalist sentiment when it had the time and political space. What's worse-a few thousand 'dissidents' in jail or hundreds of thousands of mainly innocent dead? And all for the establishment of little powerless states that had to hold out the begging bowl to the EU in order to become halfway viable?
Last edited:
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
These multi ethnic dictatorships did not have to end in the messy way they did. The trouble was that the ideological underpinnings of those states were morally bankrupt, any idealism was long dead. Nobody believed in them anymore. All that was left were strong arm boot boys, all corrupt, all with no ideas. China took the option of controlled violent repression of its minorities. They've got away with it partly because the Chineses overwhelmingly outnumbered its minorities. That was not true in the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia.
Similar threads
