Hartlepool by-election

[Sasaferrato]

That all makes a lot of sense

But the idea of people in Hartlepool, or anywhere, possibly voting a Tory!! to Westminster out of 'protest', still thoroughly disgusts me

Lots of talk about Labour in this thread, and quite rightly, given how responsible they are for the Tories maybe getting in now.

But the fucking godawful Tories? </runs away ..... >

Why why this is, why are people in Labour strongholds electing Conservative MPs?

 

[PR1Berske]

Why why this is, why are people in Labour strongholds electing Conservative MPs?

This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit.

Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."

 

[Sasaferrato]

This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit.

Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."

I find it quite amazing really. Scotland, which used to be a guaranteed 40+ seats for Labour has gone to the dark side.

Were Liverpool to crumble, that really would be the end for Labour.

 

[andysays]

Momentum got Corbyn to 40% - no small feat. The working class vote for Labour went up significantly in 2017.
Momentum was also subject to its own depressing anti-democratic coup.


None of these string of actions are blunders, they are calculated, strategised steps. If only they could be put down to human error.

Probably straying off topic, but Corbyn's vote going up shouldn't be assumed to be entirely down to Momentum

 

[JTG]

This and the other elections due on the same day will be a crucial test of Labour's strategy of offering zero opposition to the government whilst waging war on its own activist base. Will it be successful? I can't wait to find out!

 

[mauvais]

This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit.

Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."

Blackpool South has been Tory for one election cycle, and was Tory until 1997. Blackpool North has literally always been Tory, until they fucked about with boundaries and brought in Fleetwood, whereupon it became Labour. That's now been reversed and it's back to being Tory.

 

[The39thStep]

I see that the regionalist vote is likely to be split with the North East party standing Hilton Dawson.

Think that the regionalist vote , what ever it turns out to be , is going to be influenced by profile unless there’s a huge amount of four knocking.

 

[PR1Berske]

I find it quite amazing really. Scotland, which used to be a guaranteed 40+ seats for Labour has gone to the dark side.

Were Liverpool to crumble, that really would be the end for Labour.

Scotland is fascinating because voters - locally, and for both Holyrood and Westminster - have split either to the Conservatives or the SNP. Any "of the left" party, however broadly defined, have simply not been in contention at all.

 

[tim]

Poll here - I dunno if it means much as it's calculated using MRP methods from polling across the north rather than being targeted on Hartlepool itself, but it's all we've got so far...

It doesn't mean much at all bearing in mind the way that by-elections worth. Then again, a by-election three and a half years before the next general election doesn't mean much.

 

[tim]

I find it quite amazing really. Scotland, which used to be a guaranteed 40+ seats for Labour has gone to the dark side.

Were Liverpool to crumble, that really would be the end for Labour.

Liverpool Labour crumbles regularly, particularly at the dysfunctional City Council level; in the past, this has been to the benefit of the equally sleazy Liberals who have also spent a lot of time in charge over the last 50 years.

 

[killer b]

Liverpool Labour crumbles regularly, particularly at the dysfunctional City Council level; in the past, this has been to the benefit of the equally sleazy Liberals who have also spent a lot of time in charge over the last 50 years.

I was wondering how diligent a student of Liverpool electoral history sas was on reading that too.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Scotland is fascinating because voters - locally, and for both Holyrood and Westminster - have split either to the Conservatives or the SNP. Any "of the left" party, however broadly defined, have simply not been in contention at all.

I think the SNP are seen a broadly of the left party tbh. If that's true is debatable (I'd say not really but they probably are at least as far as Scottish Labour are) but I think that's how a lot of their voters see it.

 

[steeplejack]

The SNP are only 'of the left' to those who used to think that Tony Benn was "the most dangerous man in Britain".

They are a centrist soft social-democratic party in theory, and considerably more right wing, particularly at local council level, in practice, I would argue. Couthy Scotticisms about looking after old folk and not levying tuition fees at university can't really disguise that.

 

[Pickman's model]

The SNP are only 'of the left' to those who used to think that Tony Benn was "the most dangerous man in Britain".

They are a centrist soft social-democratic party in theory, and considerably more right wing, particularly at local council level, in practice, I would argue. Couthy Scotticisms about looking after old folk and not levying tuition fees at university can't really disguise that.

i used to think tony benn was the greatest windbag in britain.

 

[Dogsauce]

Why why this is, why are people in Labour strongholds electing Conservative MPs?

Full spectrum dominance, political debate only happens on their chosen territory. 2017 saw Corbyn‘s labour effective to some extent on facebook raising issues about housing, nationalisation etc., so they changed the algorithm and it won’t happen again. Elsewhere it’s nothing but Brexit, immigration, hard working families vs. shirkers etc, all the papers, all the TV, all over social media. A few Twitter bubbles can’t make a dent in this.

 

[chilango]

 

[chilango]

NIP polling at 5%

 

[tim]

i used to think tony benn was the greatest windbag in britain.

Certainly a major source of atmospheric pollution

 

[The39thStep]

i used to think tony benn was the greatest windbag in britain.

That was Neil Kinnock for me

 

[Pickman's model]

That was Neil Kinnock for me

it'd have been a close run thing

 

[The39thStep]

This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit.

Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."

The decline in Labour voting and their local organisations goes back a lot more years in a lot of these places.

 

[killer b]

NIP polling at 5%

not bad for a start

 

[Knotted]

NIP polling at 5%

Curiously good showing for Refuk.

 

[brogdale]

Curiously good showing for Refuk.

Yes, who'd have thought that fully 11% of those Hartlepool voters responding to the poll were such right-libertarian fundamentalists?
They've really reeled these marks in.

 

[bellaozzydog]

That Labour shoe in Doctor has the same dead eyes that haunt 40 years of cliff richard calendars

 

[brogdale]

The vermin have selected "a farmer from North Yorkshire" as their candidate for the by-election.

Hmmm...doesn't immediately appear like the most perfect fit for the constituency?

 

[brogdale]

 

[Rimbaud]

NIP polling at 5%

That Twitter accounts appear to have been deleted, do you have any other source for that?

 

[chilango]

That Twitter accounts appear to have been deleted, do you have any other source for that?

Nope.

...and the NIP did comment underneath that it wasn't real. Problem is, sometimes it's hard to tell when they're joking and when they're not.

Hopefully some more polls will come out soon.

 

[killer b]

They don't usually poll for by elections do they?