Hartlepool by-election

[Dom Traynor]

Look I'd love to see them do well and if I was still living in the North of England I would be donating money and might even have joined. But I just cant see how they're going to cut through especially in Hartlepool and especially under COVID. I used to know the constituency quite well, and yeah randos and jokers could cause an upset but at the moment it's much more likely to be apolitical or localist types... I mean only a fool makes cast iron political predictions at the moment, but it feels like a massive gamble. And I would argue anything less than 600 votes for NIP will be demotivating.

 

[tim]

I think the idea that a recently formed northern separatist party wouldn't run in a rare low-stakes election in a northern town which recently elected a man in a monkey suit to office in another low-stakes election is a bit far fetched tbh. It gives them the opportunity to grow their profile considerably, and it might even - if everything falls into place - see them win.

Galloway managed it in Bradford, despite his established track record of parliamentary indolence.

 

[The39thStep]

Galloway managed it in Bradford, despite his established track record of parliamentary indolence.

True but how did Galloway do that ?

 

[DownwardDog]

Going well, so far for NooNooLab...

View attachment 259389

Saudi Arabia's human rights record is not a topic of electoral salience in West View.

 

[killer b]

The conditions that saw Galloway win in Bradford don't exist here tbf, I'm not sure there's any lessons you could take from that

 

[mauvais]

Look I'd love to see them do well and if I was still living in the North of England I would be donating money and might even have joined. But I just cant see how they're going to cut through especially in Hartlepool and especially under COVID. I used to know the constituency quite well, and yeah randos and jokers could cause an upset but at the moment it's much more likely to be apolitical or localist types... I mean only a fool makes cast iron political predictions at the moment, but it feels like a massive gamble. And I would argue anything less than 600 votes for NIP will be demotivating.

Your demotivation point is a fair one but there are lots of other factors. Labour are the weakest and most hapless they have been in a long time and a byelection focuses the vote on the local rather than the national, if only because there is no national-level propaganda. Who knows what anyone really thinks of the Tories in this shithole country nowadays but it at least ought not to be good. If NIP fails in this gambit then they will surely continue as a shitposting online entity anyway, only mildly discredited by the failed interaction with a discredited system. If Scotland gets independence then NIP or something a lot like it will get an automatic second go anyway. So why not try it?

 

[Rimbaud]

Your demotivation point is a fair one but there are lots of other factors. Labour are the weakest and most hapless they have been in a long time and a byelection focuses the vote on the local rather than the national, if only because there is no national-level propaganda. Who knows what anyone really thinks of the Tories in this shithole country nowadays but it at least ought not to be good. If NIP fails in this gambit then they will surely continue as a shitposting online entity anyway, only mildly discredited by the failed interaction with a discredited system. If Scotland gets independence then NIP or something a lot like it will get an automatic second go anyway. So why not try it?

The NIP are here to stay I reckon.

The social democratic tradition in the North runs strong, and the increasing centrality of London and the South East and the decline of the North since Thatcher has only strengthed Northern identity as something seperate from a ludicrously insular political and media elite who all know each other and treat all beyond the home counties as a foreign land.

Labour's failure to absorb the hundreds of thousands of pro-Corbyn members - who, like me, were yearning for the perhaps mythical Labour of their parent's and grandparent's generation to return and reverse what Thatcher did - is the end of them as a party. Momentum were a manifestation of deep political traditions of the North trying to return energy and meaning to a moribund and bureaucratic New Labour.

That energy has to go somewhere, and the LP bureaucracy has made it quite clear it isn't welcome in Labour. Where it goes remains to be seen, but in the post Corbyn era NIP look like the most likely successors to me.

 

[William of Walworth]

The NIP are here to stay I reckon.

The social democratic tradition in the North runs strong, and the increasing centrality of London and the South East and the decline of the North since Thatcher has only strengthed Northern identity as something seperate from a ludicrously insular political and media elite who all know each other and treat all beyond the home counties as a foreign land.

Labour's failure to absorb the hundreds of thousands of pro-Corbyn members - who, like me, were yearning for the perhaps mythical Labour of their parent's and grandparent's generation to return and reverse what Thatcher did - is the end of them as a party. Momentum were a manifestation of deep political traditions of the North trying to return energy and meaning to a moribund and bureaucratic New Labour.

That energy has to go somewhere, and the LP bureaucracy has made it quite clear it isn't welcome in Labour. Where it goes remains to be seen, but in the post Corbyn era NIP look like the most likely successors to me.

That all makes a lot of sense

But the idea of people in Hartlepool, or anywhere, possibly voting a Tory!! to Westminster out of 'protest', still thoroughly disgusts me

Lots of talk about Labour in this thread, and quite rightly, given how responsible they are for the Tories maybe getting in now.

But the fucking godawful Tories? </runs away ..... >

 

[not-bono-ever]

A vox pop of people I know / knew up north whatevs suggests that their Labour are more interested in eg Palestinian issues than British ones. Doesn’t matter that it’s the fulfilment of a prolonged PR campaign by the forces of evil, it’s considered a stone cold Steve Austin fact.

 

[Wilf]

The NIP are here to stay I reckon.

The social democratic tradition in the North runs strong, and the increasing centrality of London and the South East and the decline of the North since Thatcher has only strengthed Northern identity as something seperate from a ludicrously insular political and media elite who all know each other and treat all beyond the home counties as a foreign land.

Labour's failure to absorb the hundreds of thousands of pro-Corbyn members - who, like me, were yearning for the perhaps mythical Labour of their parent's and grandparent's generation to return and reverse what Thatcher did - is the end of them as a party. Momentum were a manifestation of deep political traditions of the North trying to return energy and meaning to a moribund and bureaucratic New Labour.

That energy has to go somewhere, and the LP bureaucracy has made it quite clear it isn't welcome in Labour. Where it goes remains to be seen, but in the post Corbyn era NIP look like the most likely successors to me.

TBH, I'd have Momentum as well up the list of least influential party groupings ever. This has them with 35,000 members in 2018 - and the dominant voice in something like a 350,000 rise in Labour membership:
Momentum surges past 35,000 members with ‘more than 1,000 members joining every month’ | The Independent | The Independent
Didn't manage to reverse Labour's disconnection with working class communities and didn't even get a grip on the party itself.

 

[Rimbaud]

TBH, I'd have Momentum as well up the list of least influential party groupings ever. This has them with 35,000 members in 2018 - and the dominant voice in something like a 350,000 rise in Labour membership:
Momentum surges past 35,000 members with ‘more than 1,000 members joining every month’ | The Independent | The Independent
Didn't manage to reverse Labour's disconnection with working class communities and didn't even get a grip on the party itself.

I'm using Momentum as shorthand for Corbyn supporters. I joined the Labour Party for Corbyn but never formally joined Momentum. Labour membership swelled dramatically during that time, and it has now shrunk just as dramatically under Starmer.

They didn't reverse the disconnection, but as you say they failed to really get a grip on the party itself. And that's my point - the LP has proved that it cannot be redeemed, and so it is no longer a viable political party. As soon as a credible left alternative emerges, Labour is doomed. See - SNP in Scotland.

New Labour's political gambit was that they didn't need to worry about the working class or the left as they had nowhere to go, so they should focus on the middle class and homeowners. By 2010 this was already wearing thin as appealing to homeowners ignored the rising numbers of younger people priced out of home ownership, and at the same time the foundation of community loyalty to Labour was naturally withering with the decline of organised Labour.

The Corbyn project was an alliance of Old Labour (Corbyn, McDonnell et al) and the children of traditional Labour voters to ressurect the old party. It failed, but it also kept the moribund Labour Party alive longer than its natural lifespan. The Corbynista activism and vote wouldn't have gone to Labour otherwise, it would have found/created a new outlet and Labour would have gone the way of the French Socialist Party or PASOK by now.

By stamping out Corbynism, the Labour Party have signed their own death warrant.

There is a huge class issue which overlaps a great deal with age, and that is property ownership vs tenancy. Corbyn got the youth vote because he actually acknowledged that tenants exist and tried to address their interests, which to me was exhilarating as in alI my life I had never seen a politician do that before. Tbh I think this was the primary driver behind his support. With trade unionism insignificant among the younger generation, the only material way for Labour to generate loyalty among a new generation was to be a voice of the growing tenant class. By doing this, Corbyn breathed new life into Labour.

However, the PLP throttled this new life as soon as they got the chance and rushed to return to a policy of sucking up to the propertied and pretending tenants don't exist. In doing so, Starmer's Labour has removed any possibility for Labour to survive by terminating the foundation of youth support, and residual support out of tradition which they have been coasting on since the 90s is fading with time.

There is no longer any basis for voting Labour, but social democratic (in a broad sense) ideas remain strong and it is only a matter of time before someone pulls the rug out from under Labour. NIP could be the ones to do it.

And yes, those of you who were saying the Labour Party is a waste of time were correct. But it was still worth a try, and it didn't feel like there was any tangible alternative being offered that I could contribute to or get involved in.

 

[tim]

Are those just random pins on the board behind him or are they an acronym as is being suggested on twitter?


I'm convinced, but gullible.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Knotted]

Starmer looks shifty and uncomfortable there. But to be fair he always does.

 

[Pickman's model]

When she says no more parachutes I think she's going to impose a dead candidate

 

[Dom Traynor]

It's hardly Lisa's fault. It is Keith's though.

 

[two sheds]

When she says no more parachutes I think she's going to impose a dead candidate

And what about floating voters????

 

[Pickman's model]

And what about floating voters????

Are they face up or face down?

 

[steeplejack]

The wheezing party machine is wheeled out to mount an on-message assault to control the narrative.

 

[Pickman's model]

The wheezing party machine is wheeled out to mount an on-message assault to control the narrative.

Just want to put the LP out of our misery

 

[two sheds]

The wheezing party machine is wheeled out to mount an on-message assault to control the narrative.

Labour’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) last week composed a “longlist” comprising only his name

 

[steeplejack]

It’s been a quiet couple of days so what better to ginger things up for the Labour Party than a very public internal binfire and the expulsion of a sitting councillor and potential rival for the constituency nomination

Labour councillor 'thrown out' over Hartlepool by-election criticism

Cllr Craig Hannaway says he was kicked out after tweets criticising Dr Paul Williams' decision to drop out of PCC race

www.gazettelive.co.uk

How many more gruesome blunders does Labour have in them?

 

[killer b]

It’s been a quiet couple of days so what better to ginger things up for the Labour Party than a very public internal binfire and the expulsion of a sitting councillor and potential rival for the constituency nomination

Labour councillor 'thrown out' over Hartlepool by-election criticism

Cllr Craig Hannaway says he was kicked out after tweets criticising Dr Paul Williams' decision to drop out of PCC race

www.gazettelive.co.uk

How many more gruesome blunders does Labour have in them?

Interesting that twice in the article the Gazzette repeats the lie that local members selected Williams

 

[Dom Traynor]

Craig's a decent bloke stupid move to kick him out. He could probably get reelected as an indie if he wanted

 

[Wilf]

Given this is a potential loss to the Tories and a constituency that voted leave (heavily), what 2 considerations might Labour have going into this:

1. To avoid having a candidate with uber Remain full on dancing skeletons, rattling the closet door.
2. To avoid said bin fire with regard to imposed candidates, kick back from local party members leading to public rows and expulsions.


FFS, just have an open selection process where all reasonably qualified candidates are allowed to stand. Perhaps have some kind of shortened process, but one where the losers shake hands and promise to support the winning candidate. There's always a chance that losing candidates whine or even go on to stand as an independent, but if they've lost an actual ballot of members they just look like idiots.

 

[killer b]

Poll here - I dunno if it means much as it's calculated using MRP methods from polling across the north rather than being targeted on Hartlepool itself, but it's all we've got so far...

 

[ska invita]

TBH, I'd have Momentum as well up the list of least influential party groupings ever. This has them with 35,000 members in 2018 - and the dominant voice in something like a 350,000 rise in Labour membership:
Momentum surges past 35,000 members with ‘more than 1,000 members joining every month’ | The Independent | The Independent
Didn't manage to reverse Labour's disconnection with working class communities and didn't even get a grip on the party itself.

Momentum got Corbyn to 40% - no small feat. The working class vote for Labour went up significantly in 2017.
Momentum was also subject to its own depressing anti-democratic coup.

How many more gruesome blunders does Labour have in them?

None of these string of actions are blunders, they are calculated, strategised steps. If only they could be put down to human error.

 

[The39thStep]

Poll here - I dunno if it means much as it's calculated using MRP methods from polling across the north rather than being targeted on Hartlepool itself, but it's all we've got so far...

I saw that . Obviously didn't include NIP on voting intentions as wasn't a registered party.

 

[killer b]

I saw that . Obviously didn't include NIP on voting intentions as wasn't a registered party.

I don't imagine they'd show up in wider polling yet anyway tbh (if they ever do).

 

[brogdale]

I see that the regionalist vote is likely to be split with the North East party standing Hilton Dawson.