French Presidential elections
- Thread starter gosub
- Start date
In terms of control, does that mean a majority or simply the largest party? I ask because the PS have the most seats but only 48.5% of them.
The first round of the PS primary is today.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Benoît Hamon tops poll in first French Socialist primary race
The lefty wins the first round, and looks a good bet for the SP nomination. Will be interesting to see if/how that shakes things up.
The lefty wins the first round, and looks a good bet for the SP nomination. Will be interesting to see if/how that shakes things up.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
It suddenly seems like we should have seen this coming, but I have to say I didn't. I watched the first debate and got the impression that everyone but Valls was there just so he didn't have to debate with himself. I guess the voters have gone for substance.
If it's Hamon, it will be interesting to compare the response of the PS to the way the LP reacted to Corbyn.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Valls is a cunt so be good if he loses but this prick is still in the SP. If you did want to engage with parliamentary politics surely you'd be better off with Méléchon.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
You need to be able to command a majority, but the Greens and the Parti Radical de Gauche (sort of Lib Dems) vote with the PS.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Sounds decent enough for an SPer. Though the pic the Graun chose does not inspire confidence:
One thing I've not seen mentioned is that a couple of years there was a big wave of constituency-level (or equivalent) SP activists quitting the party in disgust. Surely that'll hurt them badly, no matter who they run?
Anyone heard anything more recently about that one?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
looks like he's coming up hard
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
So pilled up that he rattles, you mean?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
he's just met his new best m8 on the dancefloor aye
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Did they even have rave culture in la belle France?
ska invita
back on the other side
are you a French speaker Raheem? Are you in France?
I mentioned earlier that those on the left could vote for the anti-Le Pen candidate in the final presidential round, as they did for Chirac. But if, counter to all predictions and polling, it was Macron or the left candidate up against Le Pen would the French conservatives vote for them? Or would it depend on who it was?
Cid
Proper break this time
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Raheem
Well-Known Member
I'm English but I lived for a couple of years in France. I have a French tv decoder.
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
I dunno, this seems all too familiar.
TBH, if the anti-Le Pen candidate turns out to be Fillon it depends if you want your fascism heavy or lite. I reckon Macron would stand a better chance, same way as Tony Blair would have.
ska invita
back on the other side
I ask as im wondering about some more on the ground things in france...public mood in regard le pen potential win...other mobilisations against FN, that kind of thing...its the kind of thing often missing in reporting that you have to be in the country for...
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
FWIW I have family who live in rural SW France and their prediction is that Le Pen has a good chance of making it all the way. Although/because the basic French instinct is socialist, there is a lot of hostility to EU centralism and that (as well as anti-Islam) is powering Le Pen. Grim.
ska invita
back on the other side
Grim comes somewhere close to how im feeling
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
If Fillon makes it through to the second round Le Pen is much more likely to win, same as Trump Vs HRC. That's not to say Melanchon could beat her either, just as Colonel Sanders probably wouldn't have beaten Trump - it's just more likely because the centre is collapsing moderately faster than the far left because the far left is accidentally populist on a few things.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Is this just a prediction or are you arguing for a vote for Macron in order to stop Le Pen?I dunno, this seems all too familiar.
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I'd be astounded if he doesn't.
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
A prediction. I think there will be people who'd vote for anyone to stop Le Pen. But don't hold me to it, I'm just feeling very gloomy about it.
If you think 'comfortable' covers the FN getting into the second round that is.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
I don't think France would be very comfortable under Fillon, I also think a lot of people understandably won't turn out at all even if they say they would vote for Fillon. I know I would abstain.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I think we probably can't be sure now. A big part of the picture is the extreme unhappiness of many French people with current lot. Previously, the likely centre left candidates have been Hollande, then his two modernisers-in-chief Valls and Macron. But, as someone said above, French political instincts are to the left of ours, and I think if you erased everyone's memory and had Hollande run again on the same platform, he would clean up (it's a question of trusting him to deliver). Hamon doesn't have this baggage, but has a comparatively low public profile. He has previously polled low in opinion polls, but that may be mainly because people don't know who he is, or had no reason to choose him over Melanchon (but the fact that he might actually be in with a chance could now be a reason). So, if French people decide they like him, and he's not perceived as too far to the left, and it turns out that the PS brand is not irreparably damaged, then who knows.
Three ifs I can't predict the answer to, admittedly.
Socialists held their nose and voted for Chirac against old man Le Pen on the second ballot in 2002(Chirac won 82-18).But times have changed of course.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Chirac and Fillon require different degrees of nose-holding, though.
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