French Presidential elections

[bluescreen]

There's been talk of an usually high level of abstention, perhaps millions of people, affecting the vote in Le Pen's favour. I'm not sure how much basis this had anyway, but the signs are that it isn't happening, because turnout so far is only a little lower than would be expected. Or it could be that it is happening, but it is not evident in the turnout because people are generally very motivated to vote in this election. If that's the case though, it would work against Le Pen, conventional wisdom would say, because most of her supporters are likely to vote in any scenario, and so a high turnout would mean diminishing returns for her.

No, I'm not in France.

I wondered where you were talking about when you referred to "elsewhere".

 

[Raheem]

I wondered where you were talking about when you referred to "elsewhere".

I meant elsewhere within in the electorate - perhaps some people are abstaining, but some other people are cancelling out the effect by voting when they might not have done in the past.

 

[bluescreen]

I meant elsewhere within in the electorate - perhaps some people are abstaining, but some other people are cancelling out the effect by voting when they might not have done in the past.

Of course! Apologies for being literal-minded. (A bit distracted at the moment.)

 

[bimble]

says here that abstention rate (as of 5pm ) is noticably higher than it was the last 3 elections.

 

[Raheem]

says here that abstention rate (as of 5pm ) is noticably higher than it was the last 3 elections.

That's a lot higher than it was earlier. On the other hand though, the article says the rate of abstention is "in line with forecasts before the vote", which should mean it is priced into the opinion polling.

 

[Raheem]

Le Soir claims to have information from exit polls giving Macron 62%.

 

[gentlegreen]

Présidentielle 2017 en France: EN DIRECT les résultats du second tour

 

[Pickman's model]

says here that abstention rate (as of 5pm ) is noticably higher than it was the last 3 elections.

Yeh. At half four.

 

[bimble]

Yeh. At half four.

it's ten to 8 now in France

 

[Pickman's model]

it's ten to 8 now in France

Your clock's wrong.

 

[belboid]

65.5% for Macron supposedly. Slightly higher than predicted

 

[J Ed]

Le Pen in 2020 then

 

[Raheem]

Le Pen in 2020 then

The Tokyo Olympics? What's her event?

 

[Pickman's model]

Le Pen in 2020 then

Yeh if nothing happens in the interim

 

[belboid]

Yeh if nothing happens in the interim

Well, something will have to have happened if the election gets called two years early...

 

[J Ed]

The Tokyo Olympics? What's her event?

Limbo

 

[brogdale]

35% fash.
Fuckers.

 

[J Ed]

35% fash.
Fuckers.

25% abstention, and who can blame them?

 

[brogdale]

25% abstention, and who can blame them?

Yes, correct 35% of 75% = 26% of the registered electorate.
1 in 4 prepared to vote fash.

 

[gentlegreen]

The Tokyo Olympics? What's her event?

 

[Raheem]

Yes, correct 35% of 75% = 26% of the registered electorate.
1 in 4 prepared to vote fash.

Yes, but let's wait for the Tory GE manifesto to come out so we can compare and contrast before getting too judgmental.

 

[J Ed]

 

[J Ed]

Interesting to see that only 5% more Mélenchon voters abstained than Fillon voters, and that Fillon voters who did vote went for Macron rather than Le Pen.

 

[brogdale]

Yes, but let's wait for the Tory GE manifesto to come out so we can compare and contrast before getting too judgmental.

When it comes to the fash, I'm comfortable with judgementalism, ta.

 

[stethoscope]

When Macron starts to reduce the public sector, weaken labour laws and the working week, and tones down his last minute rhetoric of 'EU reform', whilst ever pursuing neoliberalism, where next for France in a few years?!

 

[bimble]

Thought i'd feel happy and relieved but don't. Since when did it become sort of normal to see the rising popularity of various brands of neo-fascism as inevitable though.

 

[stethoscope]

Beeb reporting Macron elected, Le Pen concedes.

 

[J Ed]

When Macron starts to reduce the public sector, weaken labour laws and the working week, and tones down his last minute rhetoric of 'EU reform', whilst ever pursuing neoliberalism, where next for France in a few years?!

The opposition to all of these policies, which he is quite open about, is going to be the FN.

 

[stethoscope]

 

[J Ed]

At least we get the chance to see a bit of the insufferable liberal gloating that would have followed a Clinton win.