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French Presidential elections

stavros said:
The final vote for Les Républicains takes place on Sunday. Whilst Juppé is no saint, all I read about Fillon's views and political history makes him sound like a thoroughly vile individual.
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Makes me wonder if a lot of the €2 voters have just been trolling.
 
bluescreen said:
Makes me wonder if a lot of the €2 voters have just been trolling.
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I heard a theory that the vote for Fillon in round one was about keeping Sarko out of the final, and that a lot of his support will switch. Not sure about that, and he's got a massive lead in a poll that came out today, but we'll see.

Have a horrible feeling, though, that the whole voting world is getting in touch with it's inner Nazi and we're just going to have to get used to it.
 
Raheem said:
I heard a theory that the vote for Fillon in round one was about keeping Sarko out of the final, and that a lot of his support will switch. Not sure about that, and he's got a massive lead in a poll that came out today, but we'll see.

Have a horrible feeling, though, that the whole voting world is getting in touch with it's inner Nazi and we're just going to have to get used to it.
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I hope you're right about the Sarko theory. It's a relief to see the back of him but Fillon is scarcely an improvement and I'd guess that he stands less chance against Le Pen than Juppé would.
 
bluescreen said:
I'd guess that he stands less chance against Le Pen than Juppé would.
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I think that it'll all depend on whether left-centre voters will take a deep breath and vote for Juppé to stop Le Pen. I certainly think they would be more likely to do so for him than Fillon.

I also believe it's done completely on numbers of votes, rather than any of the constituency or college vote bollocks of the UK or the US.
 
stavros said:
I think that it'll all depend on whether left-centre voters will take a deep breath and vote for Juppé to stop Le Pen. I certainly think they would be more likely to do so for him than Fillon.

I also believe it's done completely on numbers of votes, rather than any of the constituency or college vote bollocks of the UK or the US.
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I imagine quite a lot of people would vote Fillon in the second round as the 'stop Le Pen' candidate. Quite a lot of other people would struggle to see much difference between the two so might not vote for either.

'Vote for the crook not the fascist' was the slogan last time this happened. Wonder what the rallying cry will be this time round..?

The PS haven't selected their candidate yet -- Hollande was planning on throwing his hat into the ring (that'll go well) but basically they're screwed whoever stands really.
 
Sue said:
The PS haven't selected their candidate yet -- Hollande was planning on throwing his hat into the ring (that'll go well) but basically they're screwed whoever stands really.
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Yes, it is a bit weird how the right are doing it now but the PS won't do it until late January. I'm not sure if it affords either an advantage or not. Hollande's still undecided but Valls is looking more and more like he'll give it a shot.
 
Presumably the already higher than expected gay vote for the FN is going to hold up against homophobe Fillon, similarly if you're a public sector worker even if you are militantly anti-FN then you are also not going to be wild about voting for Fillon to keep the FN out. In fact, I'm sure many will be tempted to vote FN to keep Fillon out. What a disaster.
 
A fifth of the votes have been counted and its 70-30 to Fillon. I'm guessing that makes it improbable that he is not the candidate.
 
''One daren't even laugh any more.''
Crushingly absurd. I've given up trying to predict anything ever.
 
So Farage is acclimatising his supporters to an overt pivot to the fascists....

At a party to celebrate Brexit at the Ritz on Wednesday night, the former city banker warned that 2017 could be even more politically explosive than 2016. Asked what he meant, he said of the French elections: “If Le Pen wins, it is the end of the EU.”
He added: “I know her. She’s very determined, brilliant on TV. I mean absolutely brilliant.
“When you watch her making her argument and you can see her getting into it she is really good at it. There’s lots of baggage and that’s the problem.”
Although he is backing “utterly respectable Eurosceptic” Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, of France Arise, in the first round, he refused to rule out backing Le Pen in the later stages of the presidential race, despite many viewing her party as racist. He said: “It depends what the circumstances are, you’ll have to ask me in April. I have never said a bad word about her but I have never said a good word about her party and that’s where I am with this – it’s slightly awkward.”
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I won't link to the source as it was an exclusive interview granted to the Express.
​
 
J Ed said:
Presumably the already higher than expected gay vote for the FN is going to hold up against homophobe Fillon, similarly if you're a public sector worker even if you are militantly anti-FN then you are also not going to be wild about voting for Fillon to keep the FN out. In fact, I'm sure many will be tempted to vote FN to keep Fillon out. What a disaster.
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It is hard to see this turn of events, coming as it has on the heels of Trump and Brexit, as anything other than a determined effort to get Le Pen elected.
 
Sue said:
Really? Who?
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That's the less easy part. Not from the point of view of who people would vote for, but in terms of getting agreement between the parties.

Najat Vallaud-Belkacem would be good just from the point-of-view of putting an Arab up against Le Pen, and she doesn't really have baggage beyond just being in the current government.
 
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agricola said:
It is hard to see this turn of events, coming as it has on the heels of Trump and Brexit, as anything other than a determined effort to get Le Pen elected.
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Certainly an odd moment for the Republicans to institute an open primary to select their candidate. Unless I'm mis-reading this totally, it would have incentivised FN supporters to back the candidate offering the lesser threat to Le Pen.
 
redsquirrel said:
I'll lay twenty quid on the socialists still backing Fillon ahead of Le Pen
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You'd like to think so, but faced with the choice between a Thatcherite, neoliberal zealot and a canny populist I wonder what % will stay away altogether?
 
The question then becomes how much of a transfer for the socialist (and others) Fillion needs to beat Le Pen (you can't see there being many transfers to Le Pen)
 
redsquirrel said:
The question then becomes how much of a transfer for the socialist (and others) Fillion needs to beat Le Pen (you can't see there being many transfers to Le Pen)
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Honestly, who knows these days? If Le Pen really does present herself as a protectionist, anti-EU 'change' candidate...she's got recent campaigns to learn from.
 
redsquirrel said:
The question then becomes how much of a transfer for the socialist (and others) Fillion needs to beat Le Pen (you can't see there being many transfers to Le Pen)
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The most recent opinion polling gives Fillon 65% in a second round against Le Pen. It's from May though (I guess they previously didn't see it as a question worth asking very often).
 
brogdale said:
Honestly, who knows these days? If Le Pen really does present herself as a protectionist, anti-EU 'change' candidate...she's got recent campaigns to learn from.
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Looking at the 2015 elections, the FN basically got the same vote in both rounds, just a slight increase. After the EU Referendum and Trump I won't say she won't win but I still think it'd require bigger upset than both of the previous results
 
redsquirrel said:
Looking at the 2015 elections, the FN basically got the same vote in both rounds, just a slight increase. After the EU Referendum and Trump I won't say she won't win but I still think it'd require bigger upset than both of the previous results
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Agreed; their 'core' national vote has previously been around 6.5M...winning would require a huge step up from figures like that...but...?
 
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