French Presidential elections

[CrabbedOne]

The logic seems skewed to me, I would have thought Juppé, as the more centrist, candidate would have more success with a 'vote to keep out the FN' campaign (which seems to be the likely strategy). But I won't pretend to be au fait with French internal politics so maybe I'm missing something.

I guess Sowell reckons running rightward against Marine is a more solid strategy. The centre cannot hold, innit.

This guy just published a book on radical Islam and admires Margret Thatcher greatly. A fiscal hawk, he wants to cut the wealth tax and raise retirement to 65. Plus ca change... He's very much the Catholic provincial establishment but Sarko is pretty much a scandal mired French Hillary Clinton.

 

[Raheem]

Not very helpful.

Sorry, I meant to say "the votes of people with legitimate concerns over gay marriage, single mothers and the Muslim takeover of Europe".

 

[Sue]

Sorry, I meant to say "the votes of people with legitimate concerns over gay marriage, single mothers and the Muslim takeover of Europe".

And no doubt those issues are why some people are voting for Le Pen/the FN.

On the other hand, what about those who're voting for them because they're worried about the cost of living, concerned about their jobs and who feel the other parties are run by a Metropolitan elite that isn't interested in their lives or concerns?

You may think they're misguided in thinking the FN will sort out these issues but dismissing them as 'twats' seems very shortsighted to say the least.

 

[Raheem]

And no doubt those issues are why some people are voting for Le Pen/the FN.

On the other hand, what about those who're voting for them because they're worried about the cost of living, concerned about their jobs and who feel the other parties are run by a Metropolitan elite that isn't interested in their lives or concerns?

You may think they're misguided in thinking the FN will sort out these issues but dismissing them as 'twats' seems very shortsighted to say the least.

You're putting words into my mouth. Fillon will appeal to a constituency of the French electorate who, regardless of the cost of living, are bigoted twats and would otherwise vote FN for that reason.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Sorry, I meant to say "the votes of people with legitimate concerns over gay marriage, single mothers and the Muslim takeover of Europe".

You were closer the first time. It is the French after all. There's a very high grumpy asshole quotient in the best of times as any Frenchwoman will tell you. Main complaint I hear is about taxation which pays for their very good public services and long comfortable retirements. The FN has the same sort of delusional having your brioche and eating it program as Trump.

 

[Sue]

You're putting words into my mouth. Fillon will appeal to a constituency of the French electorate who, regardless of the cost of living, are bigoted twats and would otherwise vote FN for that reason.

So your 'twat vote' comment was referring to those who would support either Le Pen or Fillon but not those with legitimate concerns? I see.

 

[Raheem]

So your 'twat vote' comment was referring to those who would support either Le Pen or Fillon but not those with legitimate concerns? I see.

No, I don't think you're getting it. The twats are a category of the electorate. Think of it like the French version of Worcester Woman. They are people who have a strong propensity to vote based on social prejudice. In a Le Pen/Fillon face-off, their allegiance would be an important factor, but Le Pen/Juppé would be a no-brainer for them.

There is also a category that are likely to vote FN without social prejudice being a strong factor in their decision, and I suppose you are concerned that I may be making the error of lumping these in with the twats. The correct term for these people is "morons", but I do not think it is clear whether either of the remaining LR candidates will stand a better chance than the other of weaning these voters off.

 

[Sue]

No, I don't think you're getting it. The twats are a category of the electorate. Think of it like the French version of Worcester Woman. They are people who have a strong propensity to vote based on social prejudice. In a Le Pen/Fillon face-off, their allegiance would be an important factor, but Le Pen/Juppé would be a no-brainer for them.

There is also a category that are likely to vote FN without social prejudice being a strong factor in their decision, and I suppose you are concerned that I may be making the error of lumping these in with the twats. The correct term for these people is "morons", but I do not think it is clear whether either of the remaining LR candidates will stand a better chance than the other of weaning these voters off.

And so 30% of the French electorate is dismissed as 'twats' or 'morons'. Well done.

 

[Raheem]

And so 30% of the French electorate is dismissed as 'twats' or 'morons'. Well done.

No, there are other categories within the French electorate. Gits, ponces and so on. I haven't given thought to the full composition of FN support.

But what proportion of people would you say are twats and morons?

 

[gosub]

And so 30% of the French electorate is dismissed as 'twats' or 'morons'. Well done.

Maybe they are just "deplorable"

 

[Spymaster]

You can get very good odds on Le Pen, might put a bit on...

Not really. The bookies make her 2nd favourite at about 9/4.

 

[Sue]

Maybe they are just "deplorable"

Or maybe lumping people with different motivations and concerns together is not very helpful. And maybe not exploring why people are voting/considering voting FN is stupid. And maybe not learning a great deal since 2002 is part of the reason why we are where we are.

 

[redsquirrel]

That's one way of looking at it, but another is that AJ would have a much harder time than FF competing with Le Pen for the twat vote.

What's the evidence that Fillon could take FN votes? The FN vote has now become pretty solid and normalised, also AFAIK its strongest in traditionally Socialist areas rather than traditional centre right areas. The shift to the right on immigration for example haven't hurt the FN, or equivalent, it's helped them. Also if people are 'twats' then why would they vote for the imitation rather than the real thing? If all they care about is attacking immigrants, muslims and LGBT people why would you vote anyway other than FN?

But even if that is the case what a terrible strategy 'Vote for this who's Islamophobic and homophonic and wants a massive transfer of wealth to the rich to stop the other Islamophobic and homophonic candidate'.

I guess Sowell reckons running rightward against Marine is a more solid strategy. The centre cannot hold, innit.

This guy just published a book on radical Islam and admires Margret Thatcher greatly. A fiscal hawk, he wants to cut the wealth tax and raise retirement to 65. Plus ca change... He's very much the Catholic provincial establishment but Sarko is pretty much a scandal mired French Hillary Clinton.

I think your second paragraph provides a better explanation for his views than the first.

 

[J Ed]

Not really. The bookies make her 2nd favourite at about 9/4.

I mean relative to what I think is probably going to happen.

 

[Raheem]

What's the evidence that Fillon could take FN votes? The FN vote has now become pretty solid and normalised, also AFAIK its strongest in traditionally Socialist areas rather than traditional centre right areas. The shift to the right on immigration for example haven't hurt the FN, or equivalent, it's helped them. Also if people are 'twats' then why would they vote for the imitation rather than the real thing? If all they care about is attacking immigrants, muslims and LGBT people why would you vote anyway other than FN?

But even if that is the case what a terrible strategy 'Vote for this who's Islamophobic and homophonic and wants a massive transfer of wealth to the rich to stop the other Islamophobic and homophonic candidate'.

Terrible or not, it's possible that the LR selectorate believes it will work to some degree.

Although the FN does have a higher level of working-class support than LR, it is overwhelmingly strongest in communes that traditionally voted centre-right. I don't see any immediate reason to think the FN will decline in popularity, but if it does, the natural home for those votes is the centre right. This mirrors what happened to the UKIP vote in UK polling after the referendum. In both cases, this is counter to the myth of an exodus of voters from the centre-left to the far-right.

 

[coley]

After Frexit and Quitaly? It'll just be a German dominated trading bloc. The demise of NATO will be more interesting.

Don't forget Calexit

 

[bluescreen]

I thought Le Pen stood an outside chance against Juppé but reckon she'd fare better against Fillon. He'd attract the Catholic vote, but apart from that it's hard to see what his right wing appeal is against Le Pen, who also attracts disaffected people from all parts of the spectrum. FN has cleaned up its act since her dad's day, don't forget. And the EU isn't exactly popular outside of Paris and Strasbourg.
I know good socialists who'd be prepared to hold their nose to vote for Juppé against Le Pen but I can't imagine them voting for Fillon. (I'll have to ask.)

 

[coley]

And so 30% of the French electorate is dismissed as 'twats' or 'morons'. Well done.

And 50% + of UK and US voters also.

 

[coley]

I thought Le Pen stood an outside chance against Juppé but reckon she'd fare better against Fillon. He'd attract the Catholic vote, but apart from that it's hard to see what his right wing appeal is against Le Pen, who also attracts disaffected people from all parts of the spectrum. FN has cleaned up its act since her dad's day, don't forget. And the EU isn't exactly popular outside of Paris and Strasbourg.
I know good socialists who'd be prepared to hold their nose to vote for Juppé against Le Pen but I can't imagine them voting for Fillon. (I'll have to ask.)

This Fillion bloke, isn't he the one that wants to cut half a million public sector jobs and give the wealthy a big tax break?

 

[bluescreen]

This Fillion bloke, isn't he the one that wants to cut half a million public sector jobs and give the wealthy a big tax break?

He's a fan of La Thatcher, but his minder said that his true influence is General de Gaulle.

ETA smh, what are they thinking, etc etc.

 

[8ball]

You can get very good odds on Le Pen, might put a bit on...

The way things are going, I might put on a punt to top up the "drinking to forget" fund.

 

[coley]

He's a fan of La Thatcher, but his minder said that his true influence is General de Gaulle.

ETA smh, what are they thinking, etc etc.

And yet he's on course to win the the French presidency? The worlds gone mad, mad I tell you!
TBH, nowt makes any sense these days, the dams burst but the only buggers that will suffer is the poor and WC.
Though Blair is supposedly reentering the political scene to save us all

 

[coley]

The way things are going, I might put on a punt to top up the "drinking to forget" fund.

Doing that as I type, though 'self funding'

 

[bluescreen]

And yet he's on course to win the the French presidency? The worlds gone mad, mad I tell you!
TBH, nowt makes any sense these days, the dams burst but the only buggers that will suffer is the poor and WC.
Though Blair is supposedly reentering the political scene to save us all

No, I don't think he is on course. If he's on the ticket, my bet is on Le Pen. The rest of your post is spot on.

 

[redsquirrel]

Although the FN does have a higher level of working-class support than LR, it is overwhelmingly strongest in communes that traditionally voted centre-right. I don't see any immediate reason to think the FN will decline in popularity, but if it does, the natural home for those votes is the centre right. This mirrors what happened to the UKIP vote in UK polling after the referendum. In both cases, this is counter to the myth of an exodus of voters from the centre-left to the far-right.

The UKIP vote is only marginally down on it's pre-refendum numbers. And there clearly is a swing from Labour to UKIP in Labour heartlands, whether that's former Labour voters deciding not to vote and former non-voters moving to UKIP rather than people simply moving straight from Labour to UKIP (or a combination of the two) is open but to deny the there's a swing is nonsense.

 

[bluescreen]

The UKIP vote is only marginally down on it's pre-refendum numbers. And there clearly is a swing from Labour to UKIP in Labour heartlands, whether that's former Labour voters deciding not to vote and former non-voters moving to UKIP rather than people simply moving straight from Labour to UKIP (or a combination of the two) is open but to deny the there's a swing is nonsense.

And not to ignore that a choice between Fillon and Le Pen would boil down to a vote on the EU.
ETA: more stark than the choice between her and Juppé imo.

 

[Raheem]

And 50% + of UK and US voters also.

Would you say that voting Brexit is pretty much the same thing as voting Front National? That's quite a bold thing to imply.

 

[stavros]

Juppé has attacked Fillon as being stuck in the midst of a bygone age, calling him "retrograde".

 

[mojo pixy]

Anglophile en plus, lui. Le sale traitre.

 

[stavros]

The final vote for Les Républicains takes place on Sunday. Whilst Juppé is no saint, all I read about Fillon's views and political history makes him sound like a thoroughly vile individual.