Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
It would be far more of a mistake for socialists to vote for Fillon than Chirac
French Presidential elections
- Thread starter gosub
- Start date
Mais oui but you are not comparing like with like -different times for one ,also one is known and retired and one is untried and full of campaign rhetoric.
Polls suggest the french see the alternative very clearly and are not inclined to be simon pure .
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
If the last few years have taught us anything it's don't trust the polls
So you prefer what -your guts? Or like old bob you stick your finger up to see which way the wind blows.Granted most dont understand them or see what they want to see but they have quite long periods of accuracy,within the margin of error, interspersed by rogues.My beef with them is that there are far too many polls .
For the record this is what polls in france are currently showing -three months out from the first ballot.
Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2017 - Wikipedia
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Well, exactly. He'd be appalling. And abstention can lead to the worst worst rather than the least worst. (Toss-up who that is.) I recall the nose-holding for Chirac. Better compromised that utterly foutu.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
Ta didn't know any of that.
My prediction by the way is not that Le Pen will win, it's that the polling will prove to significantly underestimate her support, and that it will be much harder to motivate people to vote for the cunt Fillon especially when she is being very leftish economically.
Who will actually win though I dont know and anyone who says they do for sure is a fool given the way things have changed over the last few years.
Just to add I am also basing this on Facebook conversations with French friends most of whom are unionists and have been doing some campaignng.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
I don't see any evidence your average French worker would be in a worse position because Le Pen wins.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
As have the candidates . The old le pen was happy to advertise his nastiness . Revelled in it . Had the boneheads out front and didn't care . The daughter projects a different brand , different rhetoric and tries to keep that stuff in the background . Plus Filon is lot nastier than Chirac .
Fillon is like Maggie on steroids . Hard to see how socialists can pull off a nose holding exercise when the choice might be between him and his mass unemployment , benefit stripping orgy of privatisation , and a Le Pen spouting economically leftish rhetoric .
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
He has actively boasted of being the French Thatcher. But if Thatcher stood against the National Front, I would take the clothes peg and vote for her. It would represent a complete breakdown of democracy, but there would still only be one choice to make.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
I'd just move to Russia .
Eta
I understand perfectly why someone would do what you suggest, and I honestly sympathise . An important principle at stake given the FNs pedigree . But ultimately that too is self defeating . The FN will in turn capitalise on the havoc and ruin wreaked by Fillon . And what's worse they'll be able to blame the left for it too because they encouraged people to vote for it . What's fuelling the FNs rise simply isn't going to go away . There needs to be a much better response than that I reckon . And as things stand I doubt the wider left are remotely up to it .
Eta
I understand perfectly why someone would do what you suggest, and I honestly sympathise . An important principle at stake given the FNs pedigree . But ultimately that too is self defeating . The FN will in turn capitalise on the havoc and ruin wreaked by Fillon . And what's worse they'll be able to blame the left for it too because they encouraged people to vote for it . What's fuelling the FNs rise simply isn't going to go away . There needs to be a much better response than that I reckon . And as things stand I doubt the wider left are remotely up to it .
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
With the French system, the failure will have come in the first round, with Fillon and le Pen on top, if that is what is to happen. Socialists would enter the second round already defeated. At that point, it is simply a question of stopping the fascists. That is all that is left.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Well defeat in the election, which is what a Fillon victory would be, just as much as a Thatcher victory was, would simply be the start of the fight against Fillon. It would be the end of the election, but not the end of resistance.
Thatcher succeeded in dismantling the British public sector, but that doesn't mean that Fillon will also succeed.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Not that simple a question for the people facing immediate unemployment if fillons elected though . or their families . And there's half a million public sector workers alone facing the chop if he's elected . And millions more facing the prospect of losing their jobs as he promises effectively a bosses charter making it piss easy to sack people . And his benefit cuts to compliment it all, whichll be savage .
I respect your principle in this regard but it'd be unwise to assume those facing utter personal disaster if he's elected would share it at the ballot box . It looks to me like Le Pen could be well placed to capitalise on the misery Fillon promises for workers and unemployed alike . Hard to see how she can't tbh .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
It's hard to see though how the left could mount a credible challenge to Fillons policies after telling the French to vote for him . I can only see them losing credibility by doing so and even in defeat le pen capitalising on that lack of credibility . They're checkmated .
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
French workers need to defend their jobs and conditions and are possibly more able to do so than some - that will be easier under LePen than Fillon a lot easier. A massive victory for Fillon with a centre right controlled Assembly would be a green light for a bonfire of workers rights.
He would also end up implementing a lot of Le Pen's more racially charged policies or versions of them anyway to try and undercut her.
Le Pen elected on leftish sounding promises and facing a hostile assembly will have far more of a struggle to implement her programme.
The opportunity for a fight will be greater under Le Pen.
The principled pro-worker approach is to abstain in the second round and build the pro worker and anti racist movements.
He would also end up implementing a lot of Le Pen's more racially charged policies or versions of them anyway to try and undercut her.
Le Pen elected on leftish sounding promises and facing a hostile assembly will have far more of a struggle to implement her programme.
The opportunity for a fight will be greater under Le Pen.
The principled pro-worker approach is to abstain in the second round and build the pro worker and anti racist movements.
I understand the point but its a dangerous game to play(reminds me of the islamic terrorists attacking ordinary muslims who dont rise up against the infidel).The consequences would be very severe.France would be a step closer to pulling out of the EU.The atmosphere in France would be savage and relations with domestic muslims and muslim countries poisonous.
I have no idea whether the French unions would be up to the task but an emboldened Le Pen would surely make moves to change labour laws .Her pro french worker stuff is just cosmetic
Fillon is no shoe in yet with his domestic difficulties so all to play for.
ska invita
back on the other side
He's lying . She has said she hasnt done any work for him at all, and he's giving it the line that the "work of a parliamentary assistant was not a job that had precise norms, nor a job “that you necessarily do in an office”. rationalising the fact shes never been seen doing any work. blag blag blag. Thats what it looks like to me. I think he's sunk. Would be poetic .
Which would leave Marcon next in line right.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
ska invita
back on the other side
I think different rebranding far-right parties are trying to re-present themselves through a range of tricks and slight of hand...in the netherlands for example explicit hatred of 'race' has been replaced by attacks on 'culture'. Marine has been creating an image of the FN that is no longer anti-semitic, but has replaced anti-semitism with a none-too-subtle islamaphobia - much to the annoyance of her dad who is still a nazi. IIRC this issue of anti-semitism was at the heart of their fall out. Ive read that they've wanted to make a trip to Israel before so as to cement this impression....
Its an utter disgrace that anyone met with him...should be a scandal
Its an utter disgrace that anyone met with him...should be a scandal
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
It probably should be a scandal but it isn't going to be, the current Israeli government seems to have a policy of cultivating relationships with right-wing populists, including anti-Semites as long as they aren't anti-Israel in their foreign policy. See also Israel's warm relationship with Orban, their obvious backing of Trump in the US election and the way in which pro-Israel groups in the US have gone after Keith Ellison but not Bannon.
ska invita
back on the other side
The Trump support 'makes sense' considering the essential role the US plays in 'supporting' Israel, but the Orban one less so...though once you go through the looking glass....
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
What nonsense. To compare the mass atrocities committed by the GIA and the like with people abstaining in an election rather than voting for a neo-liberal to stop a hard-right populist isn't just silly and wrong on just about every level it's actual offensive.
But whats the train of thought behind the abstention ?.
DT believes by electing the facist rather than the thatcherite " the opportunity for a fight is greater under Le Pen ".Intent is to teach the workers how to struggle better and overthrow the established order.
Meanwhile islamist terrorists,frustrated by the refusal of all muslims to rise up, indiscriminately bomb their fellow citizens to teach them the error of their ways and make them realise who their true enemy is.
Same logic it seems to me.
Sorry you are offended but thats political debate I guess.I used to pay lip service to these tactics myself when I was 22 but when I left the fourth international I started to see the world thru a glass darkly.Hey ho.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I don't know, I'm not going to claim to speak for (tens of) millions of people that don't vote
You've changed abstention into "electing" and DT made no mention of any such intent, you've pulled that from nothing.
If you can't see that it's offensive both to the tens/hundreds of thousands of people murdered and to the millions of people who don't vote to compare abstention to mass murder then you're an idiot.
Well no doubt DT will explain what he meant ,if he can be asked.
The purpose of the abstention is to improve the chances of Le Pen being elected rather than Fillon(or Macron etc etc ).Tactics masquerading as principle.
Its offensive to me that those who pontificate about being leaders of the working class can talk themselves into improving the chances of france electing a fascist (because they think the consequences will be advantageous to their ideology.)And stuff the consequences whatever they may be.Not in my name guv.
But I am genuinely sorry you and all those millions are offended.I will try to avoid that next time.
Fortunately none of us has a vote in the election .
The purpose of the abstention is to improve the chances of Le Pen being elected rather than Fillon(or Macron etc etc ).Tactics masquerading as principle.
Its offensive to me that those who pontificate about being leaders of the working class can talk themselves into improving the chances of france electing a fascist (because they think the consequences will be advantageous to their ideology.)And stuff the consequences whatever they may be.Not in my name guv.
But I am genuinely sorry you and all those millions are offended.I will try to avoid that next time.
Fortunately none of us has a vote in the election .
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Rubbish. The hundreds of thousands of people who didn't vote in the 2009 EU elections in the UK didn't do so with the aim of improving the chances of the BNP getting elected, nor did the 45% of the US that abstained have the intention of getting Trump elected.
As for this it's crap. Who's pontificated about being a leader of the working class.
For the last 20+ years the liberal-left strategy has been to insist on a vote to 'stop the BNP/UKIP/FN/whoever', often attacking those who stayed at home as if not allies of the hard-right at least dupes or not sufficiently concerned. Over the same time period the hard right has enjoyed significant electoral success, wagging your finger at people while telling them that if they don't vote they are helping to elect the hard-right doesn't seem to be a particularly effective strategy. In fact I'd argue it's precisely the type of thing to turn people off.
1%er
Well-Known Member
It will be interesting to see what part Frexit (French exit) will play in the election, the movement for a referendum in France is strong and continue to build. Le Pen from the right wants one, Mélenchon from the left wants one, Le Maire the former minister for European affairs wants one, to name just a few.
Polls/research carried out by Pew Research Center and the University of Edinburgh appear to show that 60% of French people view the EU unfavorably, over half of French voters also want their own in/out referendum on EU membership, if there was a EU referendum in France, 33% would vote to leave, 40% would vote to remain and 22% were undecided, so it seems it is an issue with the French public in the same way it was in the UK.
What seems clear is that Le Pan and others could well be satisfied loosing the election if they can secure a referendum pledge from the winning candidate.
On the news here, it is claimed that the French people want one, as do the Dutch, Austria, Sweden and Italy, the Danish people voted in December 2015 not to pass any more powers to the EU (basically their opt-out has changed to an opt-in), Poland and Hungary want a new treaty that will hand some powers back to nation states.
There was also talk about Spain, Greece and others but I can't remember what was said.
Polls/research carried out by Pew Research Center and the University of Edinburgh appear to show that 60% of French people view the EU unfavorably, over half of French voters also want their own in/out referendum on EU membership, if there was a EU referendum in France, 33% would vote to leave, 40% would vote to remain and 22% were undecided, so it seems it is an issue with the French public in the same way it was in the UK.
What seems clear is that Le Pan and others could well be satisfied loosing the election if they can secure a referendum pledge from the winning candidate.
On the news here, it is claimed that the French people want one, as do the Dutch, Austria, Sweden and Italy, the Danish people voted in December 2015 not to pass any more powers to the EU (basically their opt-out has changed to an opt-in), Poland and Hungary want a new treaty that will hand some powers back to nation states.
There was also talk about Spain, Greece and others but I can't remember what was said.
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