French Presidential elections

[redsquirrel]

Id like to hear that argument fleshed out with some evidence. Obviously patronising attitudes are never helpful in any situation, but on the core subject of what's right and wrong?

We'll what about the rise of the hard-right that has occurred in the last twenty years while this tactic has been used? How about the fact that the more and more 'vote Labour/PS/etc* to stop the BNP/FN/etc" is used the less and less successful it is becoming? In the UK alone the last twenty years has has the two most electorally successful hard-right parties in history. That doesn't give you some pause for thought?

*Or whoever, but it typically is traditional centre-left parties. Though of course in this case it's a racist neo-liberal social conservative.

I understand the key problem here, but im hearing what sounds like apologism going on that jars with me:

• -encouraging people to vote against the far-right is dismissed emotively as "finger-wagging" {redsquirrel}
• -people telling other people the importance of keeping out the far-right is suggested as actually just encouraging them to vote for the far right, as if adult voters are petulant five-year olds who will do the opposite, and vote for a racist/fascist party just to get back at those who encourage them not too {redsquirrel}

*I would appreciate a respectful tone in response to this - im not picking a fight - its a critical subject, and its important to talk it out. I wont be online much this weekend now btw

You say you don't want to start to fight and want a "respectful tone" and at the same time you're claiming people are apologists for fascism/hard right and misrepresent what they've said. Physician heal thyself.

I mean re-read the part of my post you quoted. This

wagging your finger at people while telling them that if they don't vote they are helping to elect the hard-right doesn't seem to be a particularly effective strategy. In fact I'd argue it's precisely the type of thing to turn people off.

(emphasis added) is not the same as "encouraging people to vote against the far-right".

---------

But let me ask you, and the other 'vote Fillon to stop Le Pen' advocates, are you arguing for a vote for Macron in the first round? Le Pen's opponent is very likely going to be Fillon (or if he drops out, Juppe) or Macron, Méléchon and whoever the PS choose aren't likely to get a look in. Not only is Macron a more socially liberal candidate than Fillon but as a more centrist one is, as bluescreen pointed out, probably better placed to draw an anti-FN ticket than Fillon. The logic of your position would argue for a vote for Macron in the first round.

Or what about in Tory-UKIP marginals? Vote Tory to keep out UKIP?

 

[Casually Red]

Don't think this has been posted before...apologies if it has . Pretty detailed look at Melenchons efforts, warts and all . A decent enough read . Seems balanced . Sadly his activist base seems to be badly lacking in any major blue collar component..if that analysis is correct . A lot of disillusionment all round . Read somewhere else though that he has more YouTube followers than either Trump or Clinton...so who knows . Never give up on a miracle .

What Happened to the French Left? | Jacobin


Eta

And sticking to his guns here, telling the socialists were to stick their demands he drops out of the race " in the interests of left unity " . He's perfectly correct on that . The socialists are finished , unelectable . It'd be a massive betrayal of all who've looked to him for an alternative . And completely pointless .

French leftwinger Melenchon says to stick to presidential bid

 

[Casually Red]

Probably a bit optimistic ...actually hysterical..but this piece doesn't rule out the possibility of a run off between Melenchon and Le Pen as a result of a crowded presidential field going after the centrist vote.

The nightmare French election scenario no one is talking about | Suffragio

 

[treelover]

Sadly his activist base seems to be badly lacking in any major blue collar component..if that analysis is correct . A lot of disillusionment all round .

isn't this the story of the left everywhere, its why we are having these mass 'outrageothons while not tackling issues that fester and lead to such results, I fear the left is in decline and we will see the rise of a new nationalist right.

 

[hot air baboon]

..from another thread...

Germans may be contemplating a Plan B: a Trump like tilt towards Russia.

also interesting that the hitherto joint front-runners Le Pen & Fillon both seem to be in the "Russia camp" as regards influence & outlook

The bear in the room: François Fillon and the lurch towards Russia | European Council on Foreign Relations


...and they both seem to be experiencing some unfortunate and rather damaging scrutiny over their political expenses...something that must be causing shock & dismay in France where political funding is generally above reproach and free of any hint of scandal...

 

[Casually Red]

..from another thread...



also interesting that the hitherto joint front-runners Le Pen & Fillon both seem to be in the "Russia camp" as regards influence & outlook

The bear in the room: François Fillon and the lurch towards Russia | European Council on Foreign Relations


...and they both seem to be experiencing some unfortunate and rather damaging scrutiny over their political expenses...something that must be causing shock & dismay in France where political funding is generally above reproach and free of any hint of scandal...

As does Melenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon: France Commits Treason by not Delivering Warships to Russia.

And staunch support for Putin and Russian aviations efforts to stem Islamic extremist terrorism in Syria .

Western Lies on Russia's Syria Campaign Exposed on Air

Doubt there'll be a y shenanigans regarding his expenses though .

 

[Casually Red]

isn't this the story of the left everywhere, its why we are having these mass 'outrageothons while not tackling issues that fester and lead to such results, I fear the left is in decline and we will see the rise of a new nationalist right.

I'd say without a shadow of doubt if Jean Luc Melenchon posted here anonymously and set out his opinions on Russia, Ukraine , anti imperialism, NATO , the EU and Syria he'd be denounced from the rafters by a host of shrill lefty wankers here as a fascist . No doubt about that whatsoever . none . They'd go mental .
His refusal to stand aside in the interests of " left unity " would also be called a sop to fascism or some such . This type of kneejerk shit gets chucked around without a second thought of consequences , and alienation and disenchantment among the working class who don't live up to standards and expectations just finds an expression somewhere else . Or stays at home and doesn't bother .
Who in their right mind would want to spend their days being harangued by misfits and oddballs ? That's all the left is to many people. They've no interest .

 

[Dom Traynor]

I've changed my position on this over the years. I used to think fuck voting, fuck legitimising the system with my participation. But now, when there are concrete situations in front of you, such as the possibility of a racist being elected, I think a bit differently. Some things are more important than such principles. If you're French and le pen got in after you didn't vote, how could you look your Muslim neighbour in the face?

Fillon is a racist as well though - you are basically saying you will vote for a racist Thatcherite against a racist populist. That's no choice.

People are conventiently overlooking the fact that when mainstream far right candidates beat fascists they then adopt many of their policies.

If Fillon wins he will go after Muslims - although he may give them breathing space as he goes after public services and workers first.

What you do is try and get as many FdG and other left MPs elected, and build a robust workers movement.

We have to accept that the centre cannot hold and that if it does working people don't benefit meaningfully from that.

 

[elbows]

I'd say without a shadow of doubt if Jean Luc Melenchon posted here anonymously and set out his opinions on Russia, Ukraine , anti imperialism, NATO , the EU and Syria he'd be denounced from the rafters by a host of shrill lefty wankers here as a fascist . No doubt about that whatsoever . none . They'd go mental.

If he had posted here in years past he would have had to deal with you going mental about Libya and Gaddafi because he supported to removal of that tyrant.

 

[Casually Red]

If he had posted here in years past he would have had to deal with you going mental about Libya and Gaddafi because he supported to removal of that tyrant.

His horrific murder . Stop sanitising what happened .

And I'd have called him a prick for it , and been proven right . Just as I was with yourself .

 

[redsquirrel]

I've changed my position on this over the years. I used to think fuck voting, fuck legitimising the system with my participation. But now, when there are concrete situations in front of you, such as the possibility of a racist being elected, I think a bit differently. Some things are more important than such principles. If you're French and le pen got in after you didn't vote, how could you look your Muslim neighbour in the face?

This is essentially the Hope not Hate position, so would you be willing to work with them?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This is essentially the Hope not Hate position, so would you be willing to work with them?

I don't know much about HnH, but no, probably not. But I marched next to libdems against the Iraq War (literally, as it happens, which was annoying) despite fundamentally disagreeing with the reasons they were giving for being against the war - I didn't give a fuck whether or not it was legal. And I would walk next to a French equivalent at a march against the FN (or against Fillon for that matter).

tbh this post was really little more than me saying how I think I would feel if I had a vote in this election. What a choice between Fillon and le Pen would fundamentally give me is a sense of sickness and depression - and that would be my starting point in any discussion of it with others.

 

[redsquirrel]

Hamon beats Valls, not that it's going to make any difference really.

Hamon secured a clear win of more than 58% over the centrist former prime minister Manuel Valls on around 42%, according to the first partial results. It was a victory for the party’s leftwing rebels against the pro-market, centre-left policies of François Hollande – a damning verdict by voters against what many on the left consider as the failed presidency of an unpopular leader.

 

[Old Spark]

Hamon beats Valls, not that it's going to make any difference really.

No he is a real longshot for the second ballot.But if he fails to make it will he recommend abstention,non voting , anyone but le pen or say nothing and go on holiday.

 

[Raheem]

No he is a real longshot for the second ballot.But if he fails to make it will he recommend abstention,non voting , anyone but le pen or say nothing and go on holiday.

It's too early to say, really. His polling score has doubled in the past week. That may not continue, but who knows?

 

[Dom Traynor]

No he is a real longshot for the second ballot.But if he fails to make it will he recommend abstention,non voting , anyone but le pen or say nothing and go on holiday.

Presumably he would recommend a vote for Fillon.

If by some happy miracle Melanchon made it through to the second round would Fillon and friends call for a vote for him?

 

[Casually Red]

Presumably he would recommend a vote for Fillon.

If by some happy miracle Melanchon made it through to the second round would Fillon and friends call for a vote for him?

Highly unlikely.

Melenchon shouldn't totally be written off here though . He has genuine popularity despite the media studiously ignoring him . Many young people in France simply don't bother voting . He might do well with that category as well as many of those who'd be tempted to vote le pen over Fillon .

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Many young people in France simply don't bother voting . .

Can you put some figures on that. Presidential elections generally see a steady 80 per cent turnout overall. How does that drop for younger voters?

 

[Casually Red]

Can you put some figures on that. Presidential elections generally see a steady 80 per cent turnout overall. How does that drop for younger voters?

According to this article among the 18 to 24 age group 2 thirds abstain from voting

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Right now le pen seems to be doing best among that bracket . Melenchon would be the best bet to eat into that I reckon

Eta

Feckin thing doesn't come up when I link it..you'll just have to take my word for what it says

 

[littlebabyjesus]

According to this article among the 18 to 24 age group 2 thirds abstain from voting

Subscribe to read

Right now le pen seems to be doing best among that bracket . Melenchon would be the best bet to eat into that I reckon

Can't read that. Is this 2/3 not voting in presidential elections?

 

[Casually Red]

See my edit

 

[littlebabyjesus]

See my edit

Seems extremely unlikely given an 80 per cent overall turnout, and this paper says otherwise. Turnout a bit lower among the young, but still a big majority did vote.

Despite the automatic voter registration process for 18 year-olds which has been in place since 1997, and in spite of campaigns to encourage voting specifically targeted at younger generations, fewer young people and fewer young men in particular were registered to vote than their elders. In 2012, 93% of French people were registered to vote in the first round of the presidential election, but among the 18-22 year-old age group only 89% of women and 88% of men were registered. For young men aged between 25 and 30 years old, this rate drops to 87%, whereas it is 91% for young women of the same age – a gap of 4 points. [8] Insee, “Enquête participation électorale 2012”, quoted...[8] More than three-quarters of those registered did turn out to vote (77%). Systematic abstention, like intermittent abstention, in one vote or the other remained marginal. Only 13% of those registered abstained in both rounds of the presidential election. Only 5% voted only in the first round, and 6% did so solely in the second round. A very large majority of young people registered turned out to vote: 69% of 18-24 year-olds voted in the first round of the presidential election. [9] Post-electoral poll by Cevipof, conducted on line by...[9] However, they were still more likely to abstain than their elders. Nearly one young person (under 25 years old) out of five did not vote in either round of the election (19% compared to 13% for the electorate as a whole). But of all the electors it was the oldest that were the most likely to abstain: 25% of the over-75 age group did not vote in the election

It's a very different electoral culture from here. That 13 per cent who didn't vote in either round is amazingly low compared to UK turnouts.

 

[treelover]

You have regardless of excuses . And the prime political beneficiaries from that decision will be the FN . People increasingly aren't rejecting them, they're rejecting the left . That's happening for a reason . There's a cause and effect involved here .
Ask yourself why they and not the left are surging ahead in the current climate of austerity and EU disillusionment ? What's likely to happen to that trajectory if the left urge a vote for the likes of Fillon ? Will disenchantment with the left rise or fall afterwards ? You can't expect to urge people to vote for him and not be held responsible for what he does next . When people say " politicians are all the same " they genuinely mean it . That just reinforces that view .

If this is what's happening with Muslim voters in regards to Le Pen what on earth do you thinks going on with the non Muslim French ?

http://www.politico.eu/article/mari...im-islam-supporters-national-front-banlieues/

'I’m Arab, a Muslim, and I vote Marine Le Pen' - France 24

How Marine Le Pen is winning over the Muslim vote | Coffee House

Too much common sense here for LBJ, etc.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Too much common sense here for LBJ, etc.

Too little hard evidence for me to comment on. Anecdotal only - vague mentions of rising numbers of Muslims turning to the FN, but no numbers to back it up. I had a little look to see if I could find something more substantial, but couldn't.

As for the idea that turning to the FN is 'common sense', I'm lost for words.

 

[Dom Traynor]

Who is turning to the FN?

 

[stavros]

Presumably Macron will also take away Hamon votes too.

 

[ska invita]

We'll what about the rise of the hard-right that has occurred in the last twenty years while this tactic has been used? How about the fact that the more and more 'vote Labour/PS/etc* to stop the BNP/FN/etc" is used the less and less successful it is becoming? In the UK alone the last twenty years has has the two most electorally successful hard-right parties in history. That doesn't give you some pause for thought?

More than a pause...its a massive worry...but its impossible to say how much "vote x to stop y" is a factor. One thing that is proven is Labour have taken the working class vote 'for granted', which in practice means chased right-wing voters, and that has led to support in the far right in two ways: in ignoring socialist policies and also giving respectability to right-wing views. All well known...
But the specific point of tactical voting to keep someone out, its not clear I dont think. How often does it really happen? It does tie in with the wider taking for granted scenario, but i think the two things are different.

But let me ask you, and the other 'vote Fillon to stop Le Pen' advocates, are you arguing for a vote for Macron in the first round? Le Pen's opponent is very likely going to be Fillon (or if he drops out, Juppe) or Macron, Méléchon and whoever the PS choose aren't likely to get a look in. Not only is Macron a more socially liberal candidate than Fillon but as a more centrist one is, as bluescreen pointed out, probably better placed to draw an anti-FN ticket than Fillon. The logic of your position would argue for a vote for Macron in the first round.

Or what about in Tory-UKIP marginals? Vote Tory to keep out UKIP?

I haven't done the calculations on the first round, and its the end of a long monday here so not going to do it now, or ever tbh. im no supporter of any of these - im only watching this closely as part of a broader worried-interest in the far-right momentum going on in the world. How to stop that momentum is the golden question.

The short answer on a hypothetical Tory UKIP marginal - this situation isnt equatable to a FN possible win in a Presidential two-horse contest, but I'll play anyway - if there really was such a close run thing, yes I think I might well vote Tory to keep UKIP out - thats how much UKIP disgust and worry me, and I think should any right thinking person. They are that much worse than the Tories. Its a hard thing to do and in the booth i might not be able to do it. Theres a lot of missing variables about the wider context to put into the the balance, which make it far from inevitable. Its not impossible though.

I cant imagine this situation comes up that often - a neck and neck race between Tories and UKIP. Poor fuckers who live in those seats.....

You say you don't want to start to fight and want a "respectful tone" and at the same time you're claiming people are apologists for fascism/hard right and misrepresent what they've said. Physician heal thyself.

Fair point - I didnt mean to out and out say you are an apologist, more make the point there's a very steep and slippery slope on this, and to me those arguments set that slope alarm bell ringing. CR on the other hand is a serial apologist

I'd say without a shadow of doubt if Jean Luc Melenchon posted here anonymously and set out his opinions on Russia, Ukraine , anti imperialism, NATO , the EU and Syria he'd be denounced from the rafters by a host of shrill lefty wankers here as a fascist .

No, just you.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Who is turning to the FN?

I've probably misunderstood. Because I cannot for the life of me see 'too much common sense' for me in that post. I just see a bunch of statements that seem pretty obviously true. Of course the left is failing and of course people feel alienated by the system. I've felt alienated by the system all my adult life - there's some kind of assumption here that somehow certain posters live in some cosy bubble. I wish I did. I do not.

What I do see is complacency about the prospect of a fascist becoming French president. She'll be a weak leader? Will she? Is Trump a weak leader so far? I think this is dangerous complacency, and I was guilty of some of it towards Trump as well, I admit it. I don't intend to repeat that towards le Pen. And none of that is saying that you are urging people to vote for a Thatcherite cunt, or somehow endorsing him. That misses the point, as the very valid criticisms of Hillary Clinton missed the point if they then tilted towards saying either 'let's try Trump' or 'fuck it, let Trump in, they're all as rotten as each other'.

This is about keeping out le Pen. And I repeat that I think it is dangerous complacency to underestimate the consequences of a le Pen victory. 'Fillon is also racist'? Certainly. As was Thatcher. But there is a difference, and I think it is naive or disingenuous to pretend that there isn't.

 

[bluescreen]

I've probably misunderstood. Because I cannot for the life of me see 'too much common sense' for me in that post. I just see a bunch of statements that seem pretty obviously true. Of course the left is failing and of course people feel alienated by the system. I've felt alienated by the system all my adult life - there's some kind of assumption here that somehow certain posters live in some cosy bubble. I wish I did. I do not.

What I do see is complacency about the prospect of a fascist becoming French president. She'll be a weak leader? Will she? Is Trump a weak leader so far? I think this is dangerous complacency, and I was guilty of some of it towards Trump as well, I admit it. I don't intend to repeat that towards le Pen. And none of that is saying that you are urging people to vote for a Thatcherite cunt, or somehow endorsing him. That misses the point, as the very valid criticisms of Hillary Clinton missed the point if they then tilted towards saying either 'let's try Trump' or 'fuck it, let Trump in, they're all as rotten as each other'.

This is about keeping out le Pen. And I repeat that I think it is dangerous complacency to underestimate the consequences of a le Pen victory. 'Fillon is also racist'? Certainly. As was Thatcher. But there is a difference, and I think it is naive or disingenuous to pretend that there isn't.

Nope. Does not compute. Both Fillon and Le Pen fail but if people believe anyone's schtick, Le Pen wins on social issues.

 

[bluescreen]

Nope. Does not compute. Both Fillon and Le Pen fail but if people believe anyone's schtick, Le Pen wins on social issues.

Eh, I'm hoping for Macron or even (god help us) Mélenchon, whistling tbh.