Red Bull Formula 1 team post 2020
I've been chatting with friends about what could happen to Red Bull post 2020 after the new Concorde agreement is in place, clearly lots of this is speculation, but I think informed speculation and supported by many articles published in the press.
It has been reported for many months that Dietrich Mateschitz is looking to sell his interests in Formula 1, these are primarily the two teams he owns, Red Bull and Toro Rosso, Red Bull Technology Group the racing teams direct parent company and the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg Austria, but I haven't heard/read anything that has claimed that the Red Bull Ring is up for sale. I'm really just looking at the Red Bull F1 team here.
Forbes values the team Red Bull Racing team at $400 million and is a subsidiary of Red Bull GmbH the parent company of the Red Bull Group (there are a number of companies below Red Bull GmbH which are involved in Formula 1 such as the Red Bull Technology Group and Toro Rosso), the racing team (Red Bull Racing) only directly employs 58 staff. Design, production and engineering is carried out by immediate parent company Red Bull Technology Group who also support Toro Rosso. Red Bull Technology Group employs around 700 people.
I think that Red Bull Racing could well be sold to Christian Horner, Adrian Newey and Aston Martin plus other outside investors. Clearly, Horner, Newey and Aston Martin don't have $400 million, but Aston Martin has stated that it will become the teams Title Sponsor from next season and have also indicated that it will become an engine supplier, if the new FOM rules are favorable. So how could they fund a buyout to take control of the racing team?
Red Bulls turnover according to their recently published accounts was £197million in 2016 but after taxes and expenses it registered a profit of just £385,000. It earned a combined £197,949,000 from outside sponsorship, prize money and bonuses from the F1 organization, as well as payments from its ultimate parent company (Red Bull GmbH). The important figure here is the payments from Red Bull GmbH, were these payments loans (i.e. debt)?
Red Bull GmbH provided £40.6million to Red Bull Racing last year, compared to a £10.1m payment during the previous season, if this extra money was in loans, it could be being used to reduce the cash value of the racing team, as it would be debt. Is Dietrich Mateschitz going to lend the team more money over the next couple of years to bring the cash value of the team down to allow other to buy the company and its debt that he as the lender would be paid back over time or taking now in dividends.
This would mean that anyone buying the team could buy it at an affordable cash value and carry the debt on the books of the new company, making it easier for Christian Horner, Adrian Newey and Aston Martin to finance a management buyout? While Dietrich Mateschitz's parent company Red Bull GmbH want to unload the racing teams, it is likely to continue sponsorship of the Red Bull team as it is excellent advertising for his worldwide brand of drinks company's. Any such sponsorship would also allow the new buyers to have a guaranteed income for a number of years.
So how could Christian Horner, Adrian Newey and Aston Martin finance a management buyout? There are a number of ways for them to do this, they could sell some of the equity in the new team to private equity firms, banks or sell shares in the new team. Dietrich Mateschitz could enter into a seller financing agreement whereby the new team would pay for the company over a number of years, or, going back to Debt mentioned above, where Red Bull GmbH runs up the debt in the racing team and taking that debt value as dividends and include the debt in the sale of the racing team, or all of the above combined.
Both Lotus and McLaren used similar ways to take over Formula 1 teams in the past, to a greater or lesser degree and success. Lotus (or more accurately Genii Capital) never really had the money to by the team from Renault in the first place and were overstretched from day one and couldn't arrange the finance they needed to keep the team going. Ron Dennis and McLaren on the other-hand did it right and I believe that is the model that Horner, Newey and Aston Martin will follow. Aston Martin has turned itself around and the Valkyrie model, designed by Adrian Newey, has been a massive success and more such collaboration are likely to follow.
So in summary, I believe Red Bull racing will continue after the new Concorde agreement and be own by Christian Horner, Adrian Newey and Aston Martin.
Got a flight to catch or I'd have explained in more detail and added a couple of links