Given all the furore that's erupted over Sergio Perez's crash in qualifying at Monaco, I've gone back and had a look at the collision to see if there was any evidence linking to something untoward.
I've looked at what motive Perez, who was in third position, behind Leclerc and Sainz and ahead of Verstappen, after the first runs in Q3, would possibly have to deliberately put his car into the wall at Portier. The only motive that would make sense is that he did it to protect his P3 on the grid. But for this to make sense, a number of key factors would need to be at play:
- He had no chance of improving on his third place on the grid
- He had no chance of improving his qualifying time
- He was at risk of tumbling down the grid as a result of others improving their time
- Crashing at Portier was the best way to cause a yellow/red flag
Taking the first two points together, I have gone back and looked at the footage at the end of Q3, and while Perez fails to set a personal best first sector time on his final lap, he is only 0.046 seconds shy of Leclerc's purple sector. Looking further at the onboard from the end of the first sector until the time he gets to Portier, there are no obvious mistakes that would suggest that he lost any further time. Therefore, he had every chance of improving on his previous time and, given he was only 0.028 seconds shy of Sainz after the first run, the possibility of moving onto the front row with a clean run was there (Leclerc was probably out of reach having gone 0.2 quicker in the first sector on his final run and been in a league of his own all session). Therefore, it doesn't make sense that he would throw away a potential front row start to secure P3.
Then, looking at the possibility that a poor lap could have lost him further positions on the grid, entering the final runs in Q3, the times were as follows:
3) Perez - 1:11.6294) Verstappen - 1:11.6665) Norris - 1:11.8496) Russell - 1:12.1127) Alonso - 1:12.2478) Hamilton - 1:12.560
Realistically, the only person who could have beaten Perez's opening time was Max. Norris was only 0.2 seconds off but had produced an absolute blinder to get there, and it's highly unlikely he could have extracted enough extra time out of the McLaren to top Checo's time. Mercedes and Alpine were nowhere near competitive enough to trouble a 1:11.6 either. It means that even a failure to improve his time would almost certainly have left Perez P4 on the grid, hardly a disastrous outcome. If, putting on a massive huge tin foil hat, Max had riled him to such an extent that he wanted to sabotage him, it's highly unlikely he'd have been at danger of being passed by anyone behind, so really, no matter what happens, you're looking at a Red Bull second row as a worst case scenario.
The other factor to take into account is why, if Perez was intent on causing a yellow/red flag, he would put the car into the wall at Portier. Doing a Rosberg and throwing it down the escape road at Mirabeau would have caused a yellow flag and ruined everyone else's laps without doing any damage to the car, as would going straight on at Sainte Devote, the Nouvelle Chicane or doing a Schumacher and getting it "wrong" at Rascasse. Why would you then choose to put your car into the wall and force your mechanics into a rebuild job?
Taking the above into account, it really makes no sense as to why Perez would have crashed deliberately. There has to be a key motive at play, like trying to protect something tangible (like a pole position), scupper a rival or carry out a team order, and in the case of Monaco, there just isn't anything that makes sense.