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Donald Trump the road that might not lead to the White House - Redux 2024 thread.

"Vote for me, California. I'm going to give you safety, I'm going to give you a great border, and I'm going to give you more water than almost anybody has...You're going to have water in California at a level that you've never seen before, the farmers are going to do great...and maybe even more important you're not going to have illegal immigrants pouring into the country and killing your family."
-- Trump, speaking at his golf club near LA
 
M
I know the polls are too close to call but... my purely vibes-based feeling is that Harris will win this, and I'm usually pretty pessimistic. Trump's incompetence and cognitive decline are surely too glarig this time. The JD Vance nomination has been a catastrophe , his debate was a catastrophe, he is clearly incapable of listening to his advisors or restraining himself. And his novelty must be waring thin now, after over 8 years of idiotic rambling, surely even many of his supporters have had enough.
I'm pretty pessimistic. He should be tottaly flattened, but here he is neck and neck. There is something very wrong in America already for them to be in this situation. Not taking into account that half the nation are willing to back trump even though it is also impossible to fathom why anyone in their right mind would, is underestimating what is really at play. It's not just a game of rationality, it's also irrational. . . Plus the electoral college always benefits the republicans. Democrats don't just have to win, they have to win win win!
It is utterly insane that is this close. It defies all logic. It highlights something wrong deep in the heart of America that has brewed for years, probably dating back to its conception. . . . There is plenty I see wrong with the Biden/Harris administration, it's just that it pales in comparison to the Republicans, that seem to only push publically visual policies that are pure evil.
 
M

I'm pretty pessimistic. He should be tottaly flattened, but here he is neck and neck. There is something very wrong in America already for them to be in this situation. Not taking into account that half the nation are willing to back trump even though it is also impossible to fathom why anyone in their right mind would, is underestimating what is really at play. It's not just a game of rationality, it's also irrational. . . Plus the electoral college always benefits the republicans. Democrats don't just have to win, they have to win win win!
It is utterly insane that is this close. It defies all logic. It highlights something wrong deep in the heart of America that has brewed for years, probably dating back to its conception. . . . There is plenty I see wrong with the Biden/Harris administration, it's just that it pales in comparison to the Republicans, that seem to only push publically visual policies that are pure evil.
Yep. Glancing through the 2025 manifesto, it's pretty comprehensive, covering healthcare, education, benefits, immigration, religion, minority rights, taxation, regulation, climate change, international relations. There is not a single statement or even part of a statement that I don't think is pure evil. It's quite an achievement to be so bad on every single dimension.
 
Trump's 'success' has always been a matter of smoke and mirrors, now this new book exposing him in detail will not make any different to the election, but it'll seriously piss him off. and help to raise his blood pressure a little more, so that's a bonus.

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If you tell someone who is not a fan of former president Donald Trump that he is essentially a fraud — that his claim that he’s “really rich” due to his own business acumen is simply not true — they will almost certainly say, Of course. I already know that. That this has been documented is in large part because of the work of New York Times reporters Susanne Craig and Russ Buettner, and other colleagues, who in 2016 published a bombshell article based on Trump’s 1995 tax returns, which showed that he had lost almost a billion dollars that year.

But the book is also much more than an excavation of tax returns. Buettner and Craig also delve into all the aspects of Trump’s life to show how he was able to create the facade that he did. This is a page turner, with spectacular anecdotes.

For instance: Trump was able to salvage at least the construction of his first casino project, a Harrah’s in Atlantic City, by bringing in Holiday Inns Inc. (which owned Harrah’s at the time) as a partner. But before it would get on board, the company wanted to know that construction was underway.

So Trump faked it. He had his construction manager rent every piece of earth-moving equipment he could find so that on the day the casino’s team visited, “dozens of bulldozers and backhoes pointlessly pushed mounds of earth around the 2.6-acre site in an elaborate ruse with no purpose other than to fool his new business partner.”
 
M

I'm pretty pessimistic. He should be tottaly flattened, but here he is neck and neck. There is something very wrong in America already for them to be in this situation. Not taking into account that half the nation are willing to back trump even though it is also impossible to fathom why anyone in their right mind would, is underestimating what is really at play. It's not just a game of rationality, it's also irrational. . . Plus the electoral college always benefits the republicans. Democrats don't just have to win, they have to win win win!
It is utterly insane that is this close. It defies all logic. It highlights something wrong deep in the heart of America that has brewed for years, probably dating back to its conception. . . . There is plenty I see wrong with the Biden/Harris administration, it's just that it pales in comparison to the Republicans, that seem to only push publically visual policies that are pure evil.

I think it dates to the civil war. The South lost and they've never quite gotten over it. Over history since then, it's been poorer, more religious, and have poorer outcomes in nearly any category than the north. Rather than watch other people prosper, many developed a bucket crab mentality that's slowly filtered out into economically disadvantaged areas nationwide with promises to "make them pay." Its why you see the "stars and bars" flown into rural areas outside the south.
 
I think it dates to the civil war. The South lost and they've never quite gotten over it. Over history since then, it's been poorer, more religious, and have poorer outcomes in nearly any category than the north. Rather than watch other people prosper, many developed a bucket crab mentality that's slowly filtered out into economically disadvantaged areas nationwide with promises to "make them pay." Its why you see the "stars and bars" flown into rural areas outside the south.
In a way the result of the Civil War was a little odd in that it didn't allow for proper renewal. While it marked change in the form of an end to slavery, it was a victory for the establishment so there was no chance to rip up the constitution and create a new one. I think a lot of the US's problems date from the War of Independence tbh, and the fact that documents created then are still used as the foundation of the state. The veneration of the views of that particular bunch of eighteenth-century European colonists is not healthy.
 
In a way the result of the Civil War was a little odd in that it didn't allow for proper renewal. While it marked change in the form of an end to slavery, it was a victory for the establishment so there was no chance to rip up the constitution and create a new one. I think a lot of the US's problems date from the War of Independence tbh, and the fact that documents created then are still used as the foundation of the state. The veneration of the views of that particular bunch of eighteenth-century European colonists is not healthy.

I can certainly see that point to view. I would worry though if we called a constitutional convention right now. It would either result in the whole thing falling apart, or an agreement that's bad for the everyone except the uber-wealthy.
 
I can certainly see that point to view. I would worry though if we called a constitutional convention right now. It would either result in the whole thing falling apart, or an agreement that's bad for the everyone except the uber-wealthy.
Yeah, this may well not be a good time to do it. The end of a Civil War could have been.

France is onto what, it's fifth republic now. The US is still on its first one. Certain judges in the Supreme Court treat study of the constitution as a form of exegesis, discerning the original intent of a bunch of slave-owning men from 250 years ago. It's kind of absurd.
 
M

I'm pretty pessimistic. He should be tottaly flattened, but here he is neck and neck. There is something very wrong in America already for them to be in this situation. Not taking into account that half the nation are willing to back trump even though it is also impossible to fathom why anyone in their right mind would, is underestimating what is really at play. It's not just a game of rationality, it's also irrational. . . Plus the electoral college always benefits the republicans. Democrats don't just have to win, they have to win win win!
It is utterly insane that is this close. It defies all logic. It highlights something wrong deep in the heart of America that has brewed for years, probably dating back to its conception. . . . There is plenty I see wrong with the Biden/Harris administration, it's just that it pales in comparison to the Republicans, that seem to only push publically visual policies that are pure evil.
Agree and disagree. At one level you can quite straightforwardly explain the rise of Trump and other populist leaders. The failure of traditional politics, the professionalisation of politics, the drift away from the lives and experiences of voters and the rest. Creates a space for Trump and all the other monsters. But yes, even in that context Trump still defies expectations of how fuck ups and stupidity in a campaign should impact on levels of support and voter intentions. He rattles off more and more absurdities and the needle hardly flickers. Still neck and neck and he could easily win. It's not how we think public affairs should play out. Only thing I would add is that Trump is the perfect candidate for a post truth era, the conspiracists and all the voters who don't trust a word coming from the centre, the state, from Washington. When people distrust facts, evidence and truth, Trump's your man.
 
Yeah, this may well not be a good time to do it. The end of a Civil War could have been.

France is onto what, it's fifth republic now. The US is still on its first one. Certain judges in the Supreme Court treat study of the constitution as a form of exegesis, discerning the original intent of a bunch of slave-owning men from 250 years ago. It's kind of absurd.

It doesn't help that our Supreme Court is the most corrupt that we've ever had, and that the "original intent of the founders" just happens to coincide with their own personal biases.
 
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