Do we need a UK Financial Implosion thread?
- Thread starter Frumious B.
- Start date
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Fuck's sake. Jonathan Portes gives you evidence from the previous UK downgrade, the US downgrade of 18 months ago and the multiple downgrades of Japan since 1998. There will undoubtedly be more evidence in 2 years time, but don't pretend there is none now.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not much else to say in response to your quoting cranks like Keiser, tbh.
junglevip
Marijuana leads to heron
Great! I was quite insulting to butchersapron having looked at his link I thought I'd try to find out who Michael Roberts was. I stumbled across this and thought it was good so I posted it up. I did the EDIT thing because I am on a 'uk financial implosion thread' sabbatical.
I still dont know why you posted the above; it didn't make much sense. I was referring to 'will it have imploded in two years' that's all. I think it will, most on this thread think it will not. A few think there will be riots and chaos and I am one of them.
junglevip
Marijuana leads to heron
I have mentioned this in my post prior to this. I was typing while the alert came up
EDIT:
I'd like his book but cannot afford the £12 and would probably go with Satyajit Das book first then Steve Keens book. I'd like your view on these authors but I understand if you do not wish to give them.
On with the sabbatical.... .. .
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Sorry, head still in the downgrade thread.
What do you mean by 'implode'?
There's no sign of austerity ending, but that is more likely to lead to Japanese-style stagnation rather than 'implosion'. There will be riots and chaos, both caused by deeply ignorant politicians with an ideologically-driven agenda, but no obvious reason to think the proximate cause will be financial collapse; people getting financially screwed over on behalf of the already obscenely rich is enough.
The only countries in serious danger of 'implosion' are those which borrow money in a currency they cannot print (the 'periphery' of the Eurozone and smaller developing countries who have to borrow in dollars rather than their own currencies). And even then, Argentina and Iceland both recently defaulted ('imploded'?) and are recovering rather faster than those countries that fell in hock to the austerians.
Argentina defaulted on nearly $100bn in 2001 although there's talk of it happening again.
I still feel GDP leaves too much unaccounted for.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
The right-wing press have been rather desperately talking down Argentina's prospects, whilst the left-wing press are talking them up. It's very hard to know where the truth lies, but that article refers to the vultures who swooped in when the original default happened, not a brand new default, which makes me think they're over-egging it again.
GDP is certainly an imperfect measure, and books can be and often are cooked, but Argentinian wages have been rising faster than prices at the lower end, income inequality has massively reduced, and Kirchener got re-elected by a landslide despite massive opposition from the middle-classes, so I tend to believe that there is something positive going on there.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Multi-millionaire Hesseltine puts it very well, the problem is that too many people are too rich which makes them lazy and so we get poor economic performance.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It's everyone else - all those food bank types, too fecking lazy. Letting the side down.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Utterly bizarre last para:
In other words Heseltine says nothing at all except what is suggested to him by the interviewer, who has previously read something that Heseltine said on another occasion. It sounds more like making conversation for its own sake to me.
Well, this guy undoubtedly does know what he is talking about, as does Roadie. You have zero understanding because you apparently get all your information from right-wing polemicists inclined towards conspiraloonery.
There's another storey to the rabbit hole, actually. More story for your storey. It's not just that they don't understand their ratings -- the ratings don't actually really even have a meaning. There are a number of studies that correlate subsequent defaults to ratings, but the ratings agencies themselves are at pains to point out that they do not endorse these inferred default rates; they insist that their ratings have no clear quantitative meaning. Pinning them down on what they do actually mean is like trying to nail mist.
One thing that is very clear is that the ratings are purely contextual. The only really certain statement the agencies seem to back is that the ratings can only be compared to other ratings of similar companies (or, presumably, economies) at the same point in time. Companies in the same position relative to other companies at different points in a cycle will be rated the same, despite have considerable less capital (for example) at soft points in the cycle compared with hard points.
So, in a nutshell, it's very hard indeed to understand the meaning of Britain being downgraded from AAA to <whatever a particular agency happens to call the level below AAA> because it doesn't have a properly defined meaning to understand.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
It certainly has nothing to do with interest rates on government borrowing or their level of debt. Japan has higher debts than any other advanced economy, has been downgraded further and more often by the ratings agencies, and can borrow cheaper than any other advanced economy.
The problem is financial economists trying to do what macro-economists do. It's like going to your GP for heart surgery.
The problem is financial economists trying to do what macro-economists do. It's like going to your GP for heart surgery.
junglevip
Marijuana leads to heron
Max Keiser 1h
Prediction: By this time next week - we'll be fretting over UK banks as the, 'next Cyprus.'Expand
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
The op might not have enough evidence or knowledge to back up his original question/assertion, but that doesn't make him wrong. Toppling sandcastles doesn't mean you stop the tide coming in.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Hey, you're speculating on bitcoin. Great.One for the conspiriloons.....
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
No one has had a pop at the OP or said he doesn't have knowledge or evidence. What is going on with this thread?
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
Clearly I'm imagining things.
Barking_Mad
Non sibi sed omnibus
As you were.
junglevip
Marijuana leads to heron
I haven't got any money to speculate with and you'd never know anyhow. If I had money to spend I would buy on of theses:
I referring to myself when I said conspiriloon and not taking myself too seriously. As for the drill do I want do put some shelves up or...
junglevip
Marijuana leads to heron
cantsin
Well-Known Member
"not an expert" doesn't begin to do it justice really does it
ExtraRefined
Better than you at everything you love
"From a Marxist understanding, you'll be able to predict when these recessions occur, and how deep they're going to be"
Marxists must all be minted then from shorting the banks in 2008.
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