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And now a French General election too (2024)

This is an entertaining recap of the last three days including videos of political headquarters being broken into and mid interview coalition betrayals

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@RnaudBertrand: These have undoubtedly been the wildest 72 hours in French politics in my lifetime. Pretty incredible stuff. A 🧵 So after losing big time in the EU elections to Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), ...…
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It's easier that I don't need to de-personalise when quoting...
My latest favorite article from Le Monde: Revealed: Ousted conservative leader worked with billionaire Bolloré on announcement of far-right alliance (unfortunately, I don't have access to the English version).
Of course, like all the other Western Democracies, we have billionaires that like to think their money makes them right. And those billionaires need to explain to us poor people why they are right, and money is a good way to do this, through the Press and the Media. In France, Vincent Bolloré is an old Catholic French billionaire, who thinks that our civilization is going down the drain due to the Great Replacement of the population by hordes of black and Muslim foreigners. Sounds familiar, no? He owns several TV channels (entertainment and News), newspapers, and publishing firms. Shows on his channels are quite popular, and of course they are bent on transmitting the one and only message: The Right is right.

Bolloré is the one who pushed Eric Zemmour from the status of Right-Wing pundit to Extreme-Right-Wing political leader, with enough funding to make it count. Bolloré is now shown to be the one who convinced the Les Républicains leader Eric Ciotti to make the alliance with Bardella's RN. Bolloré is the one pushing the current message that the RN is after all not so extreme, and absolutely not as dangerous to society as the Left, especially LFI.
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It all sounds so familiar, doesn't it? Well, I suppose Murdoch hasn't (yet) come out for Reform.
 
Rumbles about Hollande possibly being mooted for potential PM assuming he gets elected in Correze...
Can't see that going down well with the Left...
 
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Disaster for elite centrism. Starmer and Co should study this carefully because where Macron’s politics lead they seem to intend to follow:

  • Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats
  • Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats
  • Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad
  • Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat

The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 and LR in just three.
 
Looking at the campaign so far there seems to be an acknowledgement from the left alliance that it isn't a given that they'll be the number 2 party so there has bee a bunch of tidying up and slapdown of infighting. We'll see if they can keep it up.
 
The39thStep said:
'Postmodern fascism is a reflection of class manoeuvring in the context of the ideological collapse of liberalism' Discuss.

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Quelle Surprise.

Found the IWCA founding statement - published in 1995 - in a box of papers at the weekend. Sample line "One possible scenario is that some sections of the working class end up sharing common ground with the radical right out of sheer desperation. The left has an obligation to offer the working class something other than the choice between new labour and a resurgent far right....the alternative to resistance is either capitulation or collaboration."
 
  • The manifestos are out, and without detailing them, they are the usual lot of promises and financing details for those promises. The left wants to tax the richs to pay for Healthcare, Education and Security, The Far-Right breaks past promises but will increase Security, and the Center is pledging to not raise the tax while improving Security. There is a recurrent theme here.
  • The Left is the only block vaguely talking about the environment, repeating the same objectives that were given by the Greens in the EU elections, and in the previous elections. This subject has vanished from the collective French mind for this election cycle. Again. So depressing.
  • On the Left also, there is no clear Premier candidate. Yes, Mélenchon is the logical choice if LFI keeps the leadership within the coalition, but even that is far from sure. The other parties find him too divisive (with reason), so the PS is proposing to make the elected Left députés vote immediately after the Elections to propose and choose who will be the Premier. That's unprecedented, so everyone is dubious of the process.
  • Bardella is warning us: with no Majority, he'll refuse to be Premier. He clearly does not want to be in charge of an ungovernable country, that would break his image of projected competence and efficiency.
  • Les Républicains (members of the party) keep fighting Les Républicains (the party itself). Ciotti is finally the only one LR candidate with official support from Bardella's RN. The other 70 or so proposed candidates preferred to follow the lead of the historical LR leaders and refused any alliance with Le Pen's party.
  • On this day in 1940, broadcasting from London, General De Gaulle called all the French to resist against the Nazi invader. 84 years later, the country is ready to give the keys to a party founded by Waffen SS Pierre Bousquet and would-be De Gaulle murderer Jean-Marie Le Pen.
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Smokeandsteam said:
Quelle Surprise.

Found the IWCA founding statement - published in 1995 - in a box of papers at the weekend. Sample line "One possible scenario is that some sections of the working class end up sharing common ground with the radical right out of sheer desperation. The left has an obligation to offer the working class something other than the choice between new labour and a resurgent far right....the alternative to resistance is either capitulation or collaboration."
Click to expand...
Should be a pinned note on the General Election thread
 
Smokeandsteam said:
Quelle Surprise.

Found the IWCA founding statement - published in 1995 - in a box of papers at the weekend. Sample line "One possible scenario is that some sections of the working class end up sharing common ground with the radical right out of sheer desperation. The left has an obligation to offer the working class something other than the choice between new labour and a resurgent far right....the alternative to resistance is either capitulation or collaboration."
Click to expand...
Back in the early 2000s, I was living in Paris. I met a guy who was from one of the banlieue (Seine-Saint-Denis) and had then spent a few years in the area he grew up in as a youth worker.

He told me then that in the last set of elections (local ones I think), neither of the then two main parties had even stood in his area -- the only people who did were the FN and the Communists.

I notice that Bardella, the youngish president of RN, is from Seine-Saint-Denis too.
 
Sue said:
Back in the early 2000s, I was living in Paris. I met a guy who was from one of the banlieue (Seine-Saint-Denis) and had then spent a few years in the area he grew up in as a youth worker.

He told me then that in the last set of elections (local ones I think), neither of the then two main parties had even stood in his area -- the only people who did were the FN and the Communists.

I notice that Bardella, the youngish president of RN, is from Seine-Saint-Denis too.
Click to expand...

I'd really like to read more from inside working class districts (by people who live there rather than journalists/the left) in France about what's happening.

If you or anyone has any recommended reading please post links.

ETA Bardella is very interesting. I've read his bio, son of migrants (Italian/Albanian iirc). Although from the banlieue I also read that his family were small buisness owners.
 
The first polls are out.

https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/legislatives-2024/legislatives-2024-intention-de-vote-et-chiffres-cles

74% of the voters know for sure who they'll vote for. 31.5% for the Far Right, 29.5% for the Left, 19.5% for the current Presidential majority. Of course, it's not possible to transpose a national poll to the 577 local elections that will fill the Assemblée Nationale, but we may be heading to a split vote between the 3 blocks, and the country is not politically used to this. Interesting times ahead.

Note that the Left is not rallying all their voters from the EU elections. Mélenchon is apparently scaring some of the PS voters towards the center.
Click to expand...
 
Sue said:
Back in the early 2000s, I was living in Paris. I met a guy who was from one of the banlieue (Seine-Saint-Denis) and had then spent a few years in the area he grew up in as a youth worker.

He told me then that in the last set of elections (local ones I think), neither of the then two main parties had even stood in his area -- the only people who did were the FN and the Communists.

I notice that Bardella, the youngish president of RN, is from Seine-Saint-Denis too.
Click to expand...
I lived in Paris in the nineties. SSD is a department rather than a single suburb, and a population of more than 1.5 million. Much of it was heavily industrialised and traditionally communist see Aubervillers, Bobigny, Montreuil. Some parts still are still run by the PCF.

Bardella is from Drancy which was run by the PCF until the late nineties and is neither wealthy nor poor in terms of the department as a whole. If Drancy rings a bell it's becasue it's notorious as the internement camp where jews were held before deportation to the concentration camps.
 
I've heard a pundit this morning who summarized the situation interestingly. This time, people are voting only with their emotions. The timing of the elections (forced equally by a summer heavy with Events, and Macron's whim) does not let anyone build a valid campaign, either on the political leaders' side or the voters' side. The French will vote for the party or leader they hate the less, because hate is the strongest feeling, and apparently the last one we have in our political landscape. Cue Johnny Cash's Hurt.

Edit: a quick summary of the debate in English
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Neither mine or my son's voting letter from the consulate have arrived yet in the post. Recently our sorting office has been understaffed and a ton of mail has been late or lost, local FB group is also complaining so it's not just our street.
Son can't go into Central London Sunday so we were hoping to set up a procure but that's not going to happen now time frame wise.
Not convinced it will make a huge difference if he can't - the "French abroad" constituency consistently votes whatever the Macron equivalent is at any given time by a very large margin. There's a strong Tory with libertarian leanings flavour to that cohort. The webinars I get invites for from the consulate affiliated mailing lists strongly hint that "I do not have the same assets and disposable income as the people who organise these things so the results do not surprise me.
 
Oh - may not need to traipse to the consulate after all, I'm guessing they were caught short on time so we get to vote online? Both of us received a code. So now I just have to work out how that works
 
Oriole said:
Neither mine or my son's voting letter from the consulate have arrived yet in the post. Recently our sorting office has been understaffed and a ton of mail has been late or lost, local FB group is also complaining so it's not just our street.
Son can't go into Central London Sunday so we were hoping to set up a procure but that's not going to happen now time frame wise.
Not convinced it will make a huge difference if he can't - the "French abroad" constituency consistently votes whatever the Macron equivalent is at any given time by a very large margin. There's a strong Tory with libertarian leanings flavour to that cohort. The webinars I get invites for from the consulate affiliated mailing lists strongly hint that "I do not have the same assets and disposable income as the people who organise these things so the results do not surprise me.
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you should have received an email with an identifier and a sms with a password for online voting (this closes at noon Paris time on Thursday).
they had issues with sms password I only got mine today.
e2a: only just read your follow up post now :facepalm:
 
wemakeyousoundb said:
you should have received an email with an identifier and a sms with a password for online voting (this closes at noon Paris time on Thursday).
they had issues with sms password I only got mine today.
e2a: only just read your follow up post now :facepalm:
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My son got the SMS but not the email. While he is still on the voting list he let his reg with the consulate lapse so we can't check if they have his email address on record or update it.
 
Oriole said:
My son got the SMS but not the email. While he is still on the voting list he let his reg with the consulate lapse so we can't check if they have his email address on record or update it.
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If you haven't received any emails then details are [probably out of date.
too late for this round as you had to correct those by the 16th but he has until tomorrow 23:00 BST to sort it for the 2nd round. it can be done online here.

voted, gonna have a shower now
 
wemakeyousoundb said:
If you haven't received any emails then details are [probably out of date.
too late for this round as you had to correct those by the 16th but he has until tomorrow 23:00 BST to sort it for the 2nd round. it can be done online here.

voted, gonna have a shower now
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you can only do the online thing if the consulate hasn't de-registered you. They seem to be more on top of deregistering if you don't renew than they used to be. Pretty sure he would be he hasn't done any paperwork via London for ages (I used to go to Calais for identity cards and passports when you could just rock up on a Saturday at the Mairie because I could fit it in a trip and I didn't have to take a day off work like I would with going into Z1).
Mine was and I only realised when I needed to renew my passport. Since his is out of date I'd expect him to not know he is deregistered and if he did know not to have renewed it. He has a UK passport too so he doesn't "need" his French passport for anything and he isn't hot at all things admin. I keep telling him to redo his passport while he is in the Expired for less than 5 years bracket as it's more of a PITA after that but adult children, horses, water, leading, drinking and all that.
 
1000076975.jpg
For anyone wondering about how the campaign is going.
The quoted message roughly says: the more RN stuff I read the more it feels like people just want the right to hurt others
The caption to the quote is: yesterday Bompard told Bardella that withdrawaing child benefit in case of school truancy has been tried unde Sarkozy already. Post evaluation, the conclusion was it doesn't work and in fact it makes worsens things. Bardella replied "yes and we will reinstate the law"
 
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