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And next, Syria?

I thought that re: earlier discussion on HRW this interview would be of interest to some

Keane Bhatt: While human rights organizations provide valuable information and engage in important advocacy, they can play a role similar to that of The New York Times, demarcating what qualifies as respectable debate. José Miguel Vivanco, director of Human Rights Watch's (HRW) Americas division, singled out Venezuela by saying a 2008 report was written "to show to the world that Venezuela is not a model for anyone." He and HRW's global advocacy director Peggy Hicks wrote a letter to Chávez on November 9, saying that the country was unfit to serve on the UN's human rights council, which The Washington Post repurposed as an editorial two days later. HRW sent no similar letter to Obama, and the United States was quietly re-elected to a three-year term on the same council.

Amnesty International, for its part, went to Chicago for the NATO summit in May, but unlike activists protesting the brutal U.S. military occupation of Afghanistan, Amnesty's Cristina Finch wrote that, "There is real danger that women's rights will get thrown under the bus as the United States searches for a quick exit from Afghanistan . . . This is a defining moment for the U.S. government to show that it will not abandon women."

Carlos Lauría of the Committee to Protect Journalists called his organization a "human rights defender," yet said little to defend beleaguered journalist Julian Assange of WikiLeaks, who faces the threat of extradition to the United States, where he could be held under the same "cruel, degrading and inhuman" conditions that Bradley Manning suffered. Instead, Lauría noted that it was "ironic" that Ecuador "has granted asylum to Assange," given the country's poor reputation on press freedoms. No watchdog groups noted the irony of Ecuadorian editor Emilio Palacio seeking asylum within the United States, which imprisoned an Al Jazeera cameraman for six years in Guantánamo.

Having detailed the behavior of the media, do you think such institutions similarly manufacture consent? And given their sterling reputations in the public sphere, is there a way to hold these accountability groups accountable?

Noam Chomsky: They do some good things. They're part of the educated, liberal, intellectual elite and suffer from its deficiencies; so you hold them accountable in the same way you hold the media and intellectual community accountable. Take Human Rights Watch. There's some things that they've proposed that they keep kind of quiet, but which are quite good. They're way out in the lead in boycotts, divestment, and sanctions on Israel. They've called on the U.S. government to stop any funding of Israel that's in any way related to the occupied territories or to repression inside Israel. That's nice. It's a good plank—they make sure no one hears much about it, but I'm glad it's there.

Venezuela is one of their main hates, so they'll say Venezuela is not fit, but they won't say the United States is not fit, though it's much worse than Venezuela. You can say the same about the press. You can say the same about the Harvard Faculty Club. These are the things you have to struggle against all the time.

Interesting that neither the interview nor Chomsky mention Honduras, where HRW had to be embarrassed into highlighting human rights abuses following the anti-ALBA coup, which imo is just as bad as their shilling for the Venezuelan opposition. I don't think that we can necessarily trust what they say about Syria to diverge that much from the US government's position.
 
I thought that re: earlier discussion on HRW this interview would be of interest to some



Interesting that neither the interview nor Chomsky mention Honduras, where HRW had to be embarrassed into highlighting human rights abuses following the anti-ALBA coup, which imo is just as bad as their shilling for the Venezuelan opposition. I don't think that we can necessarily trust what they say about Syria to diverge that much from the US government's position.

I've read HRW being criticised about this sort of thing before. Beware of NGOs, especially with fluffy names. Imo HRW is probably a complex beast with different factions within itself, and probably not an out an out CIA front organization like the National Endowment for Democracy or similar.
 
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Since a lot of commentators think that Israel is just happy to let the rebels and Assad duke it out, are they just trying to rebalance the conflict to prolong it?
 
Since a lot of commentators think that Israel is just happy to let the rebels and Assad duke it out, are they just trying to rebalance the conflict to prolong it?

That's possible. Especially now there seems to be some kind of stalemate/ceasefire emerging, which is exactly what they don't want. They don't want Assad to be able to regroup.

Might've been some anti-aircraft weapons there, of the type that could potential deter Israeli incursions into Syrian territory, so they might be taking them out now whilst they can and not wishing to run the risk that those weapons could be used against them a few years from now Assad has regrouped.
 
If some sort of (even more direct) intervention happens after Assad has destroyed his chemical weapons... that would be a very dangerous precedent.
 
If some sort of (even more direct) intervention happens after Assad has destroyed his chemical weapons... that would be a very dangerous precedent.

Indeed. But I wouldn't bet on it quite just yet.

It might that Israel's just using the opportunity to take out some of the anti-aircraft weapons that Syria has stockpiled, wary that when the war is over those weapons could pose them a very real threat.
 
Tbh I can't see them giving much of a fuck. I know with the prospect of some sort of dialogue with Iran Bibi and co have had their noses put out of joint and this could possibly in part be seen as a reaction to this but they haven't given much fuck in the past. Bugger all in the main news on ITV about this either, quelle surprise.
 
The only news outlet that I have seen cover it so far is CNN and BBC News 24, but 24 only has headlines on the bottom of the screen.
 
The US generally lets Israel do what it wants in it's own backyard, but if Israel's recklessness starts to put the wider US middle-eastern strategy at risk then they might make an exception. Still too early for that yet.

Bibi's political position in Israel kind of depends on him being a protector against the big Iranian enemy that he is bravely standing up against, so if there's a entente cordiale of some kind between Iran and the US that would be a big threat to Bibi's political position.

Question is, will Netanyahu risk the US-Israel relationship, and indeed jeopardise the security of the Israeli state, just to save his own political skin? Will he try and scupper any US-Iranian relationship by re-escalating the Syrian issue? Fuck knows I could do with looking this all up and seeing the details.
 
Question is, will Netanyahu risk the US-Israel relationship, and indeed jeopardise the security of the Israeli state, just to save his own political skin? Will he try and scupper any US-Iranian relationship by re-escalating the Syrian issue? Fuck knows I could do with looking this all up and seeing the details.

We are approaching the second half of a second term Presidency, Bibi probably (correctly) assumes that he can get away with almost anything.

That said, if the Iran issue is solved (edit) before Obama leaves office - as it should be, with even a modicum of common sense on both sides - then he might suddenly find Israel in such an obviously secure position that he (Bibi) ends up being just another leader of a faraway place that has too much money spent on it.
 
We are approaching the second half of a second term Presidency, Bibi probably (correctly) assumes that he can get away with almost anything.

aaah. Y'see this is why I should read up on these things before opening my mouth. Ta.

Fuck knows what they're playing at then.
 
Are the Russians realistically likely to get involved militarily?

Well they are involved, they're giving military aid to Syria. Without Russia Assad might well be gone by now.

Will we see Russian MiG's dogfighting with Israeli F-16's over Syria? No probably not. They're not daft.
 
Are the Russians realistically likely to get involved militarily?
There are already small numbers of military advisors and technicians.

And they've supplied a lot of military aid to Assad's regime.

Russia has a naval base at Tartus in Syria
 
Throwing their weight about partly because they can and partly to send a message to both the US and Iran. Maybe....

Is there any chance at all that the reasons they gave publicly, about the anti-aircraft weapons going to Hezbollah, are true?

I'm not sure what Hezbollah would do with those kinds of weapons. It's not like they're trained like a regular army to use them. Or that they'd really be much good against an Israeli attack.

Thing is Syria has these weapons, distributed throughout the country, and they've never once used them to try taking down an Israeli fighter jet, who can fly over the country with impunity. They're not much of a deterrant, and they're not much use in an actual war if you're not prepared to use them. Are they just scared that if they down a few jets then Israel will just declare a full war on them or something?
 
In part it may have an element of truth to it but more important is the message, of which one interpretation could be 'We are still the top dogs around here and you never know what we might do if we feel we are being sidelined or pushed into a corner'.
 
In part it may have an element of truth to it but more important is the message, of which one interpretation could be 'We are still the top dogs around here and you never know what we might do if we feel we are being sidelined or pushed into a corner'.

yeah that's probably right. Nothing like a vulgar display of power every once in a while to show everyone where they stand
 
yeah that's probably right. Nothing like a vulgar display of power every once in a while to show everyone where they stand
Iranian “threat” unites Saudi Arabia and Israel
opendemocracy. 31 October 2013
As Saudi spy chief, Prince Bandar is mindful of the ramifications of an Iranian victory in Syria and the influence and prestige of the Kingdom around the Islamic world. By not bombing Assad, the United States has handed Iran a win, boosting the Iranian Revolutionary Guards militia influence in Syria and Lebanon while weakening moderate Sunnis.
I thought this article was interesting. Makes me wonder how much Israel is going alone or USA proxy in this?
 
Makes me wonder how much Israel is going alone or USA proxy in this?

Agreed, it's really hard to work out.

But then again it's quite useful for the USA to have Israel there as leverage towards Iran. "If you don't do as we wish we'll let Israel off the leash" kinda thing. Puts more pressure on Iran to do what Uncle Sam wants.
 
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Well you'd think so. Presumably there's some kind of implicit understanding between the US-Israel about how far they can go. I doubt Israel would jeopardise that for short-term gain.

The situation with the US and the Saudi's is more complex. That article you linked mentions that the Saudi's perceive the failure to bomb Syria as a sign of US decline in the region, but that's a mistake. The US decline is very long-term, and in the short term they've got exactly what they need from the Syria campaign. That isn't the same thing as what the Saudi's need, but from the American's point of view so what? They've got exactly what they want, Iran nicely docile and passive, they don't have any interest in a huge sectarian war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, sunni and shia, which is what the Saudi's ultimately seem to want.
 
Is there any chance at all that the reasons they gave publicly, about the anti-aircraft weapons going to Hezbollah, are true?

I'm not sure what Hezbollah would do with those kinds of weapons. It's not like they're trained like a regular army to use them. Or that they'd really be much good against an Israeli attack. quote]

If the Syrians were supplying missiles to Hezbollah they would also provide some sort of technical help to use them otherwise it would be pointless supplying them in the first place.
 
You'd assume so, but does the Syrian Army seem like it's in a position to be able to do that? In this midst of a brutal war? Surely they've got more important priorities?

And why would they be giving Hezbollah these weapons, with the intention of using them, if they're so reticent to use them themselves? I mean if the Syrians won't use them when Israel's sending jets to attack Syria why would Hezbollah?

It's all very weird.
 


You'd assume so, but does the Syrian Army seem like it's in a position to be able to do that? In this midst of a brutal war? Surely they've got more important priorities?quote]

I'm no military expert but I'd have thought it wouldn't take no more than a few dozen trained Syrians to fire off some rounds from Lebanon aimed at Israeli planes and/or provide training to Hezbollah to do it themselves.
Anyway, Assad has warned of the dire consequences for the region if he goes down and providing high-grade weaponry to a group that will almost certainly use them against Israel given the chance is a pretty good way of inflaming the situation - literally and metaphorically.
Anyway, as you suggest, it's all speculation.
 
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