**BILLY NO MATES FRIDAY NIGHT SYRIAN UPDATE**
So Assad's talking up a ceasefire saying publicly for the first time what we all knew, that they can't win the war outright. This should put an end to the notion that the Assad govt is handily winning the war, which seems to have been uncritically accepted in some circles following the the govt victory at Al-Qusayr back in June.
Brief recap: After Al-Qusayr the govt went on a series of other offensives around the country, but these have not been as succcesful as the Al-Qusayr battle. The first offensive after Al-Qusayr was to reclaim Mennakh Azaz airbase in Azaz, which had been under siege for months by Free Syrian Army. This attempt was unsucessful, and the airbase fell into the hands of the Free Syrian Army in July, and the vast air base is now a battle site between the FSA and the hardline Islamist factions, with conflicting reports saying Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) now have the airbase (here and here) others saying a truce has been signed (here and here) but doesn't specify which group currently controls the base.
Then in early July the Syrian Army moved onto Homs city, a critical strategic area that links Damascus to the Alawite coast. It lies between the Anti-Lebanon and Jabal al-nusaryiyah Mountains in an area called the Homs Gap, which has historically been the route chosen by invading armies hoping to get into the interior of Syria. The subsequent campaign in Homs has been much less decisive than in al-Qusayr. Most of the city is now in government hands, but many suburbs are still controlled by rebels stubbornly refusing to withdraw. The situation in Damascus barely improved following Al-Qusayr. Large areas of the outer suburbs remain in the hands of militants, showing that there's been conscious shift in rebel tactcs to try and cut off the capital and force Assad and his men to flee to the Alawite coasts in the aftermath losing in al-Qusayr. It might even be co-ordinated with the recent threat of American intervention, to really put the pressure on the core of Assad's government and trigger defections. Some rumours suggest up to "40 or 50 thousand" rebel fighters surround the capital (Bob Fisk has a habit of being melodramtic with these things) and despite daily incursions by the Syrian Arab Army they've been unable to make a breakthrough on this front. Aleppo remains divided between rebels and govt, but the surrounding northern border with Turkey is well beyond Assad's reach, as this footage from earlier in the week of a Syrian helicopter being shot down by a Turkish F-16 shows us (the helicopter landed in FSA controlled Syrian territory, putting doubts on the Turkish governments claim that it violated Turkish airspace. If they were in Turkish airspace it was probably to defect/escape, not singlehandedly wage war against Turkey in their little helicopter. The pilots were captured alive by the FSA and beheaded on camera then stuck all over Youtube btw.) The central province of Raqqah and stretching all the way from the Turkish border in the north to the Iraqi border in the southern desert is now firmly under Islamist-rebel jurisdiction, cutting off the Kurds in the eastern Al-haqqah province from any support from Damascus, and spilling over into Anbar, Iraq. With Kurdish guerilla's involved in heavy fighting trying to defend their turf, many are now fleeing north-eastern Syria into Kurdish-Iraq (as documented on this thread). Had the Syrian govt successfully been able to continue from the victory at al-Qusayr with a series of decisive military victories, I don't think we'd now be seeing the Assad government talking about stalemates, ceasefires and giving up it's chemical weapons.
You have to ask now, are the rebels prepared to accept any kind of ceasefire? And with which rebels? So far the rebels seem to have rejected any attempt at a ceasefire, so that doesn't look hopeful, but when you're dealing with hundreds of different militia groups how can you get agreement amongst them all to sign a peace deal and hold them to it? Assuming some kind of peace deal with the government is done, how are they going to stop the rebel militias fighting amongst themselves, just like the post-revolutionary militias in Libya?
Whilst Putin has been winning plaudits for his statesmanship, this should all be seen as a victory for the US in foreign policy terms. A messy one, not a clear-cut one that they were going for, but a victory all the same. They have successfully dealt with the potentially tricky issue of chemical weapons with the Russians and have tied up one of their their loose ends for the upcoming Geneva peace talks. For all the talk in the news of US-Russian tenions this deal is one that appears to have been in the works for some time behind the scenes (report here) with the US delaying things (to Russian's annoyance) to improve their bargaining position in Geneva, and to put pressure on the Assad govt and encourage defections. This has been one the main tactics the US has tried to use throughout the Syrian campaign, hoping for the state to implode, a point that Patrick Cockburn's latest in the Independent makes:
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So Assad's talking up a ceasefire saying publicly for the first time what we all knew, that they can't win the war outright. This should put an end to the notion that the Assad govt is handily winning the war, which seems to have been uncritically accepted in some circles following the the govt victory at Al-Qusayr back in June.
Brief recap: After Al-Qusayr the govt went on a series of other offensives around the country, but these have not been as succcesful as the Al-Qusayr battle. The first offensive after Al-Qusayr was to reclaim Mennakh Azaz airbase in Azaz, which had been under siege for months by Free Syrian Army. This attempt was unsucessful, and the airbase fell into the hands of the Free Syrian Army in July, and the vast air base is now a battle site between the FSA and the hardline Islamist factions, with conflicting reports saying Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) now have the airbase (here and here) others saying a truce has been signed (here and here) but doesn't specify which group currently controls the base.
Then in early July the Syrian Army moved onto Homs city, a critical strategic area that links Damascus to the Alawite coast. It lies between the Anti-Lebanon and Jabal al-nusaryiyah Mountains in an area called the Homs Gap, which has historically been the route chosen by invading armies hoping to get into the interior of Syria. The subsequent campaign in Homs has been much less decisive than in al-Qusayr. Most of the city is now in government hands, but many suburbs are still controlled by rebels stubbornly refusing to withdraw. The situation in Damascus barely improved following Al-Qusayr. Large areas of the outer suburbs remain in the hands of militants, showing that there's been conscious shift in rebel tactcs to try and cut off the capital and force Assad and his men to flee to the Alawite coasts in the aftermath losing in al-Qusayr. It might even be co-ordinated with the recent threat of American intervention, to really put the pressure on the core of Assad's government and trigger defections. Some rumours suggest up to "40 or 50 thousand" rebel fighters surround the capital (Bob Fisk has a habit of being melodramtic with these things) and despite daily incursions by the Syrian Arab Army they've been unable to make a breakthrough on this front. Aleppo remains divided between rebels and govt, but the surrounding northern border with Turkey is well beyond Assad's reach, as this footage from earlier in the week of a Syrian helicopter being shot down by a Turkish F-16 shows us (the helicopter landed in FSA controlled Syrian territory, putting doubts on the Turkish governments claim that it violated Turkish airspace. If they were in Turkish airspace it was probably to defect/escape, not singlehandedly wage war against Turkey in their little helicopter. The pilots were captured alive by the FSA and beheaded on camera then stuck all over Youtube btw.) The central province of Raqqah and stretching all the way from the Turkish border in the north to the Iraqi border in the southern desert is now firmly under Islamist-rebel jurisdiction, cutting off the Kurds in the eastern Al-haqqah province from any support from Damascus, and spilling over into Anbar, Iraq. With Kurdish guerilla's involved in heavy fighting trying to defend their turf, many are now fleeing north-eastern Syria into Kurdish-Iraq (as documented on this thread). Had the Syrian govt successfully been able to continue from the victory at al-Qusayr with a series of decisive military victories, I don't think we'd now be seeing the Assad government talking about stalemates, ceasefires and giving up it's chemical weapons.
You have to ask now, are the rebels prepared to accept any kind of ceasefire? And with which rebels? So far the rebels seem to have rejected any attempt at a ceasefire, so that doesn't look hopeful, but when you're dealing with hundreds of different militia groups how can you get agreement amongst them all to sign a peace deal and hold them to it? Assuming some kind of peace deal with the government is done, how are they going to stop the rebel militias fighting amongst themselves, just like the post-revolutionary militias in Libya?
Whilst Putin has been winning plaudits for his statesmanship, this should all be seen as a victory for the US in foreign policy terms. A messy one, not a clear-cut one that they were going for, but a victory all the same. They have successfully dealt with the potentially tricky issue of chemical weapons with the Russians and have tied up one of their their loose ends for the upcoming Geneva peace talks. For all the talk in the news of US-Russian tenions this deal is one that appears to have been in the works for some time behind the scenes (report here) with the US delaying things (to Russian's annoyance) to improve their bargaining position in Geneva, and to put pressure on the Assad govt and encourage defections. This has been one the main tactics the US has tried to use throughout the Syrian campaign, hoping for the state to implode, a point that Patrick Cockburn's latest in the Independent makes:
Ideally, the US and its allies would like a coup within the Syrian government that would get rid of Assad and his family, but otherwise maintain the status quo. But Ba’athist regimes in Iraq and Syria were designed to be coup-proof: the intelligence services are too powerful and omnipresent for an anti-Assad plot to succeed
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