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2022 Kentucky Derby

The odds are designed so that overall the bookie does not lose money. I worked in William hill shops for years and we were never ever down.
 
The worst result for bookies is when the favourite wins which is another clue as to what the odds are all about. But as mentioned, they can lay off bets whenever they want too.

Good video of the race and great commentary. He nearly has a heart attack when the winner appears (out of sight of his binoculars for the rest of the race).

 
platinumsage said:
You keep saying “nothing to do with probability”. How do you think bookies set the market for something like a white Christmas then? Can you see any link at all between where the money goes and actual events that take place?

Sure odds aren’t themselves probabilities, but to claim there’s invariably no correlation between odds and probabilities is just weird.

I think you’re arguing against something I never claimed, tilting at windmills, and not exactly politely as you claimed.

You understand percentages though, so I suppose that’s me told.
Click to expand...

Jesus Christ. Do you know what an S.P is? Do you know what a tote pool is and how it works?

This race is the very essence of what I am talking about. The 80-1 S.P of the winning horse was actually 81.8--1. This is because a pool of money was bet and divided up, as I've said, to give odds that reflect that pool and leave a profit margin for the tote. Private bookmakers are banned in Kentucky, so this is the only way S.Ps are decided.

The S.P has nothing to do with probability. Everything to do with that pool of money.

If I bet on a 100-1 shot, lots and lots, reducing that price down to say 10-1, does that mean the probability of my horse winning has increased by 10x, or does it mean those taking the bets are protecting their profit margins by reducing the price?

I'll give you a clue. It's b).

HTH.
 
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planetgeli said:
Jesus Christ. Do you know what an S.P is? Do you know what a tote pool is and how it works?

This race is the very essence of what I am talking about. The 80-1 S.P of the winning horse was actually about 81.5-1. This is because a pool of money was bet and divided up, as I've said, to give odds that reflect that pool and leave a profit margin for the tote. Private bookmakers are banned in Kentucky, so this is the only way S.Ps are decided.

The S.P has nothing to do with probability. Everything to do with that pool of money.

If I bet on a 100-1 shot, lots and lots, reducing that price down to say 10-1, does that mean the probability of my horse winning has increased by 10x, or does it mean those taking the bets are protecting their profit margins by reducing the price?

I'll give you a clue. It's b).

HTH.
Click to expand...

None of which supports your argument that odds have nothing to do with probabilities, unless you’re actually claiming that all punters bet randomly. If that were the case in the Kentucky Derby, entries with the longest odds would win just as often as the favourite, because the odds wouldn’t reflect the actual chance of winning at all.
 
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Come on guys, Coral have the Green Party at 500 to 1 to win the most seats at the next general election. This is obviosuly such a good bet compared to Conservatives at 4/5 that I don’t understand why you wouldn’t pile all your money into it. I mean these odds don’t reflect actual probabilities at all, as planetgeli has explained, so what could possibly go wrong?
 
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