2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[brogdale]

Worth saying again, in effect UKIP hit nearer to 30%...with AIFE 'stealing' 2% in the regions where they put up against Farage.

 

[butchersapron]

Worth saying again, in effect UKIP hit nearer to 30%...with AIFE 'stealing' 2% in the regions where they put up against Farage.

Was just about to say this - and i've seen noted number crunchers say the AIFE vote cost them the two seats that the greens won. They've not posted figures yet, but i expect we'll be hearing a lot more about this shortly.

 

[editor]

There isn't a Lambeth 'seat' as such - although there are borough level results, the candidates elected all represent the entire region.

Still, good to see Lib Dems & UKIP get trounced locally, with even the Greens beating the tories.

Thanks for that. I've changed the headline a bit although I'm still too tired to think straight. Does 'Labour comfortably retain their majority vote in Lambeth in the 2014 European Elections' make more sense?

 

[brogdale]

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Re AIFE, it's reasonable for there to be a centrist Eurosceptic party as well as a hard right one. It's not passing off, and it's perfectly plausible for a good proportion of their votes to have been considered and deliberate.

 

[ska invita]

that is what my mental map of Britain looks like too...the zone extending up to scotland

 

[butchersapron]

Re AIFE, it's reasonable for there to be a centrist Eurosceptic party as well as a hard right one. It's not passing off, and it's perfectly plausible for a good proportion of their votes to have been considered and deliberate.

Don't be so studiedly naive.

 

[juice_terry]

How the fuck do Wales and Scotland have UKIP MP's???

A lot of people in Scotland wrongly saw this as an SNP vs Labour battle, and chose to vote labour, thus splitting the vote allowing UKIP to gain a seat.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Wretched BBC commentary constantly saying that Labour "only just" beat the Conservatives, despite the Scottish votes not having been added in yet.

 

[Sue]

Wretched BBC commentary constantly saying that Labour "only just" beat the Conservatives, despite the Scottish votes not having been added in yet.

Also annoying that R4 were reporting earlier that Labour beat the Tories in Scotland with no mention at all of the SNP who beat both of them to come top. Really lazy/ignorant reporting. (Western Isles still to be counted but given the number of people there ie not very many won't make any different to the result.)

 

[brogdale]

Don't be so studiedly naive.

Quite; engineered ballot paper position bias....one of the oldest tricks in the book.

 

[butchersapron]

Quite; engineered ballot paper position bias....one of the oldest tricks in the book.

1/4 million votes for an unknown party with a name very similar to the one it's spoiling and that made sure it's name was first on the list and whose leaflets were as close to UKIP ones as legally possible. Yeah, maybe just maybe.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Quite; engineered ballot paper position bias....one of the oldest tricks in the book.

Yes, but "stealing" goes a bit far. Not a literal democrats scenario.

 

[JTG]

A lot of people in Scotland wrongly saw this as an SNP vs Labour battle, and chose to vote labour, thus splitting the vote allowing UKIP to gain a seat.

I'm not sure that works as an argument given the system used

 

[brogdale]

Yes, but "stealing" goes a bit far. Not a literal democrats scenario.

Appropriating, if you wish...but it's pretty obvious that the votes were nicked...whatever you may choose to think.

 

[brogdale]

EU Parliament with a fair few nazis...Putin's gonna love this.

 

[tim]

Appropriating, if you wish...but it's pretty obvious that the votes were nicked...whatever you may choose to think.

No, they were given away by inattentive voters who couldn't be bothered to read the ballot paper properly

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

PC and SNP are both in the green group believe it or not.

Actually they're in the European Free Alliance which brings together progressive and centrist seperatist parties - and which sits with the Greens to form the Greens-EFA for the purposes of Europarl party groups rules.

 

[brogdale]

No, they were given away by inattentive voters who couldn't be bothered to read the ballot paper properly

Deliberately taking from the 'inattentive'...clearing nicking votes.

 

[butchersapron]

No, they were given away by inattentive voters who couldn't be bothered to read the ballot paper properly

Either way, the vast majority were pretty clearly UKIP bound.

 

[Belushi]

Aren't there rules nowadays about masquerading as another party? Brought in after someone got tens of thousands of votes standing as a Literal Democrat iirc.

 

[brogdale]

Scottish returning officer is reading out candidate's home addresses.


and the 'kipper lives in Kensington!

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Aren't there rules nowadays about masquerading as another party? Brought in after someone got tens of thousands of votes standing as a Literal Democrat iirc.

Yes however AIFE managed to avoid breaking the rules which are quite deliberately worded.

To be fair as well Mike Nattrass who was sacked from UKIP fully admitted that they were trying to wreck the UKIP vote.

 

[butchersapron]

Aren't there rules nowadays about masquerading as another party? Brought in after someone got tens of thousands of votes standing as a Literal Democrat iirc.

Yep, they have to pass a test to get on the register - this lot passed despite their clear intentions. Funny that.

 

[Combustible]

1/4 million votes for an unknown party with a name very similar to the one it's spoiling and that made sure it's name was first on the list and whose leaflets were as close to UKIP ones as legally possible. Yeah, maybe just maybe.

In the West Midlands, 'We Demand a Referendum' got 23k votes compared to 27k for AIFE. This does suggest that there are a reasonable chunk of voters who are prepared to vote for previously unknown UKIP spinoffs. Although 'We Demand a Referendum' only stood in the West Midlands and seemed to be selling themselves on the performance of ex-UKIP MEP Nikki Sinclaire.

 

[agricola]

Young Lib Dem vs Young Labour live on BBC News.

 

[weepiper]

Scottish returning officer is reading out candidate's home addresses.


and the 'kipper lives in Kensington!

He's not been entirely truthful about where he lives.

http://edinburgheye.wordpress.com/2014/05/20/where-does-david-coburn-live/

 

[brogdale]

He's not been entirely truthful about where he lives.

http://edinburgheye.wordpress.com/2014/05/20/where-does-david-coburn-live/

or other matters, by the look of it.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Actually they're in the European Free Alliance which brings together progressive and centrist seperatist parties - and which sits with the Greens to form the Greens-EFA for the purposes of Europarl party groups rules.

I do like the idea of an alliance of separatists.

 

[JTG]

Interesting number: big two combined vote share is up on 2009