Labour going right to secure however many votes they got from the Tories and try and win back the votes they lost to Reform brings the Greens and Lib Dems into play in the seats where they were second place, reducing the majority while also not guaranteeing that the Tory vote won't leave and the Reform vote won't stay.
Labour going left to try and sort out the results of them telling the left to get fucked and vote for someone else for the last four years definitely loses whatever % of their vote went to Reform and the Tory vote they picked up in the last few years. Also no guarantee they can get back the voters they explicitly told to go and vote for someone else.
This victory is one for Centrism, but it's been founded on getting fewer votes and relying on the Tories implosion and Reforms rise. It's a trick you can only do once.
In 1997 - 2010 Labour pretty much cruised through 2001 and 2005 slowly eating away at the majority they'd got because a lot of their majorities were fucking huge. You could lose 10k+ votes between 97 and 05 and still make it in as a Labour MP. Thats not the case any more, seats are a lot more marginal.
Look at how many are 5k and under, or 10k and under. There's a good solid Labour base there in the 10k+ but that's not a parliamentary majority I'm betting, almost every other seat is potentially up for grabs.
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There are almost no safe seats, especially if the old two party is being replaced with a four or even five way split if you factor in Greens, Lib Dem and Reform.
Edit: Forgot to add, incumbency weighs heavy. 2019 was fucking weird because it wasn't about the Tories record it was about Brexit. Can a Government make themselves more popular in power? Can this Labour leader do it? We'll find out.
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