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Will the Tories break the record for most seats won?

Will the Tories break the seats won record in June's GE

  • I believe they will

    Votes: 2 6.7%
  • Close call

    Votes: 8 26.7%
  • Don't be daft, a win but nowhere near

    Votes: 12 40.0%
  • Er no, Jeremy will win this one

    Votes: 8 26.7%

  • Total voters
    30

Mr Moose

What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
At the moment it seems a distinct possibility that the Tories may gain the most ever seats. They seem strong in their usual areas and Brexit ensures they will take many seats they normally do not. It appears they will inherit the majority of UKIP's votes.

No evidence of Labour or LibDem revival to stop them so far, but Scotland may at least keep the numbers down.
 
At the moment it seems a distinct possibility that the Tories may gain the most ever seats...

Maybe you could expand your OP by reminding us what the existing record is for most ever seats won (also perhaps when it was set and by whom), and how many new seats the Tories need to gain to achieve this, etc.

Otherwise there's a danger this thread may get no further than ill-founded speculation based on a vague hunch.
 
No.

I don't think there'll be a huge change in seats.

Share of vote perhaps. But I'm not sure this will translate into wins away from marginals and semi-marginals.

Note: My extremely unsuccessful record in predicting the outcome of votes should be taken into account when reading this post :D
 
Maybe you could expand your OP by reminding us what the existing record is for most ever seats won (also perhaps when it was set and by whom), and how many new seats the Tories need to gain to achieve this, etc.

Otherwise there's a danger this thread may get no further than ill-founded speculation based on a vague hunch.

I think people interested in the question are capable of doing their own research, but the record is 418 and the Tories won 331 last time. Game has changed since then though.
 
Maybe you could expand your OP by reminding us what the existing record is for most ever seats won (also perhaps when it was set and by whom), and how many new seats the Tories need to gain to achieve this, etc.

Otherwise there's a danger this thread may get no further than ill-founded speculation based on a vague hunch.
Sticking with the post-war period, the Conservative’s best result in terms of seats won was at the 1983 General Election, when 397 MPs were elected. Its highest share of the vote was 49.7% in 1955.
OTOH, Labour’s worst general election performance of the post-war years was in 1983, with 27.6% of the vote and 209 seats.

FTR, Labour's 418 seats in 1997 were the highest ever number for a single party.
 
Sticking with the post-war period, the Conservative’s best result in terms of seats won was at the 1983 General Election, when 397 MPs were elected. Its highest share of the vote was 49.7% in 1955.
OTOH, Labour’s worst general election performance of the post-war years was in 1983, with 27.6% of the vote and 209 seats.

FTR, Labour's 418 seats in 1997 were the highest ever number for a single party.

I wonder if Labour might gain a slightly worse share of vote than this and lose spectacularly because of the Brexit factor in previously safe seats. Vote holds former in Remain areas, but not enough to win new ones.
 
I wonder if Labour might gain a slightly worse share of vote than this and lose spectacularly because of the Brexit factor in previously safe seats. Vote holds former in Remain areas, but not enough to win new ones.
FWIW, current polling, 5 weeks ahead of the vote, puts the LP at, or just above that % share of the popular vote. Generally speaking the month before a GE sees some degree of convergence...so...if I were a betting man I'd say no.
 
I think people interested in the question are capable of doing their own research, but the record is 418 and the Tories won 331 last time. Game has changed since then though.

Of course we are, but if I was sufficiently interested in this question to start a thread, I would also do some research and share my findings with everyone. Maybe that's just me...

Anyway, this page gives some basic info, though the results are given in terms of majorities rather than number of MPs.

Biggest post war majority is 179 in 1997, 418 seats out of total of 659.

419 seats in today's 650 seat HoC would give May a majority of 188, which I'm sure she'd be very happy with, but I don't think that's going to happen, however shit Labour are over the coming weeks.
 
FWIW, current polling, 5 weeks ahead of the vote, puts the LP at, or just above that % share of the popular vote. Generally speaking the month before a GE sees some degree of convergence...so...if I were a betting man I'd say no.

You are probably right. However current GE polling may overestimate the UKIP vote which could be almost gone by June.

Another variable is those individuals who don't normally vote. It is said they turned out for the EU Ref. Will they again? Let alone the 'shy Tories'.

All of these factors point to a Tory win that may again exceed even the current dire predictions.
 
Of course we are, but if I was sufficiently interested in this question to start a thread, I would also do some research and share my findings with everyone. Maybe that's just me...

Anyway, this page gives some basic info, though the results are given in terms of majorities rather than number of MPs.

Biggest post war majority is 179 in 1997, 418 seats out of total of 659.

419 seats in today's 650 seat HoC would give May a majority of 188, which I'm sure she'd be very happy with, but I don't think that's going to happen, however shit Labour are over the coming weeks.

Pompous in the extreme, but thanks.
 
There's a chance, yes.

There seems to be a quite incredible head in the sand approach from a lot of the left at the moment. Labour is utterly fucked come June.

Well some of us on here have been putting forward analysis of why this is happening. To a regular chorus of attacks and smeers.

The 'head in the sand' is coming from those 'on the left' who think its easier to imply that the working class are 'thicko racists' for voting leave, and not examining why in once strong Labour areas, those people voted leave. And still lots of 'the left' glossing over the very real problems we have with believing in a top-down neoliberal EU as some sort answer to our member state political problems (as we can see across Europe and the trend has been there for years, it's not confined to the UK).
 
Well most of us on here have been putting forward analysis of why this is happening.

The 'head in the sand' is coming from those 'on the left' who think its easier to imply that the working class are 'thicko racists' for voting leave, and not examining why in once strong Labour areas, those people voted leave. And still lots of 'the left' glossing over the very real problems we have with believing in a top-down neoliberal EU as some sort answer to our member state political problems (as we can see and the trend has been there for years, it's not confined to the UK).

This analysis falls over when you consider how those people, who might claim they are giving the neoliberal elites a shooing, are voting for the most durable of all elites. Labour would not win this by appearing merely anti-establishment.
 
Well most of us on here have been putting forward analysis of why this is happening.

The 'head in the sand' is coming from those 'on the left' who think its easier to imply that the working class are 'thicko racists' for voting leave, and not examining why in once strong Labour areas, those people voted leave. And still lots of 'the left' glossing over the very real problems we have with believing in a top-down neoliberal EU as some sort answer to our member state political problems (as we can see across Europe and the trend has been there for years, it's not confined to the UK).
Been posted elsewhere...but Streeck nails it in his latest NLR piece.

The left too, or what has become of it, has no idea how the ungovernable capitalism of the present can make the transition to a better ordered, less endangered and less dangerous future—see Hollande, Renzi, Clinton, Gabriel. But if it has any wish again to play a part in this, it must learn the lessons of the failure of ‘global governance’ and the ersatz politics of identity. Among these lessons are: that the outcasts of the self-appointed ‘knowledge society’ must not be abandoned for aesthetic reasons to their fate and, hence, to the right; that cosmopolitanism at the expense of ‘the little people’ cannot be enforced in the long run even with neoliberal means of coercion; and that the national state can be opened up only with its citizens and not against them. Applying this to Europe, this means that whoever wants too much integration will reap only conflict and end up with less integration. The cosmopolitan identitarianism of the leaders of the neoliberal age, originating as it did in part from left-wing universalism, calls forth by way of reaction a national identitarianism, while anti-national re-education from above produces an anti-elitist nationalism from below. Whoever puts a society under economic or moral pressure to the point of dissolution reaps resistance from its traditionalists. Today this is because all those who see themselves as exposed to the uncertainties of international markets, control of which has been promised but never delivered, will prefer a bird in their hand to two in the bush: they will choose the reality of national democracy, imperfect as it may be, over the fantasy of a democratic global society.
 
This analysis falls over when you consider how those people, who might claim they are giving the neoliberal elites a shooing, are voting for the most durable of all elites. Labour would not win this by appearing merely anti-establishment.
The important point is that, in voting for May's Brexit promises, they believe that they are effecting the 'anti-elitist' position they took in June....whether we agree with that, or not. The LP have, thus far, not persuaded them otherwise.
 
Well some of us on here have been putting forward analysis of why this is happening. To a regular chorus of attacks and smeers.

The 'head in the sand' is coming from those 'on the left' who think its easier to imply that the working class are 'thicko racists' for voting leave, and not examining why in once strong Labour areas, those people voted leave. And still lots of 'the left' glossing over the very real problems we have with believing in a top-down neoliberal EU as some sort answer to our member state political problems (as we can see across Europe and the trend has been there for years, it's not confined to the UK).


I haven't really enough time today to do this justice but I think there's plenty of (far from enthusiastic) Remain people who would go out of their way to avoid writing off Leave voites as 'thicko racists' and would be even more reluctant (if possible) to present the EU as a panacea to anything.

More pragmatic critics of Brexit tend to focus on how the harder outcomes of Brexit will risk even greater freedom for neoliberal workers-rights destruction and even more unrestrained power for global capital.

I've never been convinced by some Left-Brexit suggestions that getting out of the EU will improve anything for workers.

It's also just as simplistic/insulting to (some) Remainer arguments, to imply that those amount to nothing more than impying Brexit voters are thicko racists, or just amount to being uncritcial neo-liberal EU worship. There's a lot more to it than that as you know ....

Got to go! Away for weekend.
 
I haven't really enough time today to do this justice but I think there's plenty of (far from enthusiastic) Remain people who would go out of their way to avoid writing off Leave voites as 'thicko racists' and would be even more reluctant (if possible) to present the EU as a panacea to anything.


Enjoy your weekend William, but this 'black and white' view has exactly been how 'the left' and liberals, in the main vocal remainers have approached it. It's happened here plenty and I didn't see many fellow remainers who appreciate the nuance of a shit situation call out the behaviour of those that have been smeering us for merely trying to analyse and understand this all and coming to a different conclusion over the EU.

I don't recall a single one of us here saying that a left leave was the magic answer to our ills, and that leaving wasn't beset with all manner of problems for the working class or smashing neoliberalism, but we said it might have to happen if we are going to break out of the situation we find ourselves in. Yet, the reaction of parts of the left and liberals has been to go straight for the 'racists', 'Tory enablers', 'Turkeys voting for Xmas', etc. that has fucked any left and pro-working class response to any of this. It's happening in France, where anyone with a different analysis/response is now labelled some sort of 'Fascist enabler' for refusing to back the neoliberal Macron because he's up against Le Pen.
 
Personally - though I think Labour is going to be, and thoroughly deserves to be, hammered - I would be somewhat surprised if the idea of the shy Tory is dead, and that the shy Labour voter does not emerge.

I also think that a proportion of those who say they will vote Tory - having come from Labour via UKIP - don't actually do so in the end.

I doubt that the Tory win will be the landslide the polls predict - they will, imv, gain a handful of seats in Scotland and put Scottish Labour to the sword as the main non-SNP party, and they will hoover up seats in the Midlands, but that Labour will win it's heartland seats, even if the majorities crumble.

I would be very surprised if Labour went below 180 seats.

(I also, am utterly shit at predictions - based on my view, Corbyn should be thinking about curtains and what will go with the black door...)
 
This analysis falls over when you consider how those people, who might claim they are giving the neoliberal elites a shooing, are voting for the most durable of all elites. Labour would not win this by appearing merely anti-establishment.
You are Douglas Carswell and I claim my £5.

The flood of Kippers switching to Theresa May shows two things: Ukip’s done its job of getting us out of Europe. And she is now the anti-establishment candidate

Ukip, my old party, is finished. And I’m elated about it | Douglas Carswell
 
What would an approach without a head-in-the-sand look like?
One that accepted the Leave vote was a reaction against the effects of neoliberalism and persuaded those voters that a vote for the LP would address/reverse those effects?
 
One that accepted the Leave vote was a reaction against the effects of neoliberalism and persuaded those voters that a vote for the LP would address/reverse those effects?

To be fair, Corbyn's Labour seems to be doing that, albeit communicating extremely poorly. A lot of the votes they have lost have been from liberal remainers in my experience, because Corbyn didn't campaign strongly enough for remain. Seems like they are between a rock and a hard place to me.

edit: I don't know for sure, but I would wager a good deal of the independents who did well in local elections got votes from ex-labour remainers.
 
To be fair, Corbyn's Labour seems to be doing that, albeit communicating extremely poorly. A lot of the votes they have lost have been from liberal remainers in my experience, because Corbyn didn't campaign strongly enough for remain. Seems like they are between a rock and a hard place to me.

edit: I don't know for sure, but I would wager a good deal of the independents who did well in local elections got votes from ex-labour remainers.
tbh the geography of the locals doesn't really give the hard evidence to evaluate your claim that LP have lost their metropolitan, cosmopolitan vote as a result of Corbyn's EURef campaign.
 
One that accepted the Leave vote was a reaction against the effects of neoliberalism and persuaded those voters that a vote for the LP would address/reverse those effects?

As opposed to a Labour Party that criticises Corbyn for not being vocally remain enough leading upto the referendum, despite him still trying to do the right thing to appease the PLP by coming out for remain, and despite it being in opposition to his personal anti-EU view.

Or a Labour Party that undermines Corbyns attempts to find some sort of 'democratic socialist' position again*, and when he predictably fails, the PLP will shift the party back to the right again, on yet more a neoliberal platform that's barely wafer-thin any different to the Tories anyway.

And they wonder why the working class don't come out to vote for Labour anymore.

* not that I'm an advocate of Corbyn or Labour.
 
Been posted elsewhere...but Streeck nails it in his latest NLR piece.


'The cosmopolitan identitarianism of the leaders of the neoliberal age, originating as it did in part from left-wing universalism, calls forth by way of reaction a national identitarianism, while anti-national re-education from above produces an anti-elitist nationalism from below.'

This is great, really does say it all.
 
tbh the geography of the locals doesn't really give the hard evidence to evaluate your claim that LP have lost their metropolitan, cosmopolitan vote as a result of Corbyn's EURef campaign.

True, but all the same a majority of Labour supporters voted remain, so taking a more forthright pro-Brexit stance probably isn't going to help their polling. Their economic policies are good, but it seems like nobody knows what they are. The chaos and lack of competence is a bigger problem than the general direction imo. They need to sort themselves out and find an effective way to communicate for 2022.
 
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