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Who will win the 2024 US election?

Who will win?

  • Total voters
    137
Also, this from the Guardian explainer has some useful reminders:
www.theguardian.com

When will we know the result of the US presidential election?

Calling the Harris-Trump race could take days – here’s what to know about the presidential and congressional results
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

For Arizona and Nevada in particular, “it’s very unlikely anybody’s going to call those races on election night,” McCoy said. “That’s the way those states have worked for a very long time, and so that’s very much expected.” If another swing state is as close as Georgia was in 2020, “you’re just waiting. That’s not something you’re going to get ahead of and make a projection that’s just too close to call. And so you’re just waiting for the votes to come.”

Pennsylvania is particularly challenging because by law, local elections offices can’t begin opening envelopes and tallying mail-in ballots until the day of the election. Wisconsin, another swing state, has a similar restriction and may not report complete results until early Wednesday morning.

Some states permit absentee ballots to be counted as much as 10 days after election day. Of the swing states, only Nevada has a meaningful delay; it can accept mail-in ballots up to the Saturday after election day, as long as they are postmarked by 5 November.

If there are legal battles over which ballots to count, that could also delay results. There are currently numerous pending lawsuits in a number of swing states concerning the canvassing of certain ballots, including late-arriving ballots and overseas ballots...

The phrases “red mirage” and “blue shift” refer to the same phenomenon in which a Republican candidate appears to have a lead early in the evening, only for that edge to disappear as more votes are counted.

In 2020, mail-in ballots heavily favored Democrats, while Republicans were far more likely to vote in-person. On Wednesday at noon on the day after the election, Donald Trump had an 11% lead, which Joe Biden overcame over the next two days as elections workers counted 2.7 million voters’ mail-in ballots. The AP and other news organizations knew how many absentee ballots voters had returned, and knew how many had been requested by registered Democrats, and refrained from calling the race for Biden until those ballots were counted.

On the Friday before election day, Wisconsin had received more than 1m absentee ballots, with more on the way.

“In the two most populous counties, they don’t finish counting until 1am or 2am,” Wagner said. “And so several hundred thousand votes come in, you know, under the cover of darkness, and they happen in the two most liberal counties in the state. The Democrat always picks up a ton of votes in the middle of the night in Wisconsin, because, by law, they can’t start counting until then. It’s a petri dish for conspiracy theories, even though they’re doing things exactly the way they’re required to do them.”

The opposite phenomenon occurs in Arizona, where mail-in ballots received before election day are counted – and reported – first. In 2022, the Democratic senator Mark Kelly had a 20-point lead over Republican Blake Masters at the start of the night. Kelly ultimately won with a five-point margin.

But mail-in ballots received on election day cannot be processed until after the polls close. In 2020, that was a significant number – about 320,000 ballots in Maricopa county alone.
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Short version is we won't actually know owt for fucking ages so we might as well all go to bed now.
 
bendeus said:
Graun now has it on the ticker. Still too many variables in play to extrapolate a result from one (slight) swing in DJT's favour, apparently
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its a 10% swing for a group making up a third of the electorate. it appears only slightly less bad in north carolina. Which isn't good news.
bendeus said:
Where's the bit that has the actual overall split rather than the sub-categories? (apologies in advance if I'm being dim)
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i'm glad you couldn't find that either, (from my reckoning, its 50.16-49.45 to Trump)
 
hitmouse said:
Also, this from the Guardian explainer has some useful reminders:
www.theguardian.com

When will we know the result of the US presidential election?

Calling the Harris-Trump race could take days – here’s what to know about the presidential and congressional results
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com


Short version is we won't actually know owt for fucking ages so we might as well all go to bed now.
Click to expand...
Note sure about this - we had a very good idea who'd won in 2008, 2012 and 2016 within a few hours. 2000 was a special case ('hanging chads') and 2020 had very close results in key states. If Trump's winning this, I suspect we'll know quite soon.
 
Forcing myself to watch BBC coverage but these idiots really are politically illiterate. Not just CV forger Marianna Spring, but just seen a gormless gawping goldfish (Clive Myrie) announcing in shocked tones that many people see the Supreme Court as partisan. I do suspect this idiot just doesnt know the US Constitution was explicitly designed to produce disarticulation between the Senate/Congress/Presidency/Supreme Court in order to prevent the perceived centralisation of the British. If asked, I bet he thinks Montesquieu is currently French Foreign Minister. He was way out of his depth in the UK Election: so he and an idiot like Spring front coverage of this election. And another idiot has just talked about implementing manifesto. The clowns are amongst us…
 
Ax^ said:
just for reference George Santos is the below fellow

16741784708154.jpg


also lied on his resume and ran out of congress with very dodgy election accounts :D
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Time for a bit of Randy 😄 .

 
belboid said:
this is the exit poll, not actual result. And cities are overwhelmingly democrat.

In better news, the exit poll has Harris winning Pennsylvania 50.25 - 49.85
Click to expand...
She is ahead so far in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina.

Michigan Exit Polls show 48% who favour Harris and 45% who favour Trump.

Georgia looks like it will go for Trump however.
 
Rimbaud said:
She is ahead so far in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina.

Michigan Exit Polls show 48% who favour Harris and 45% who favour Trump.

Georgia looks like it will go for Trump however.
Click to expand...
the CNN exit poll aint released yet, I didnt think. If she can get both of those, things looks much better.

The actual votes are meaningless so far.
 
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