Who will be the next Labour leader?

[Smokeandsteam]

She should have named and shamed the traitors. Can’t abide that. Disagree, stick your notice in whatever, but don’t shaft your colleagues.

Given the period is obvious it doesn't require Inspector Morse to work it out, no?

 

[Mr Moose]

Given the period is obvious it doesn't require Inspector Morse to work it out, no?

I’m not saying it does. Just may be good to remind us.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

it's not RLB, it's some bloke running a fan account.

Apart from calling her stance on immigration “dodgy” the rest is fair comment

 

[Larry O'Hara]

This is back in blair Iraq war days but I did hear that there was genuine difference between the two papers. I can't recall the details now. Observer iirc published all kinds of wmd lies, my memory is shit, I also remember some straight from the mouth of mi6 content. Vaguely recall some grievance between the two papers at that time, political but also financial.
Apologies for the shit post, but I think there might be more complex a picture than what you say.
Though boil it all down and who cares what the difference is

As a Sunday paper the Observer is always going to be more reliant on spooks because of the print lead-in times to get exclusives: they cannot compete with dailies for immediacy.

 

[Idris2002]

This is back in blair Iraq war days but I did hear that there was genuine difference between the two papers. I can't recall the details now. Observer iirc published all kinds of wmd lies, my memory is shit, I also remember some straight from the mouth of mi6 content. Vaguely recall some grievance between the two papers at that time, political but also financial.
Apologies for the shit post, but I think there might be more complex a picture than what you say.
Though boil it all down and who cares what the difference is

The week before the war started, the Observer published as fact the already debunked claim that agents of Saddam had met with Al-Qaida members in Prague.

 

[Azrael]

Politically advantageous to lose 60 seat, right.
He publicly expressed his support for remaining in the EU in any 2nd referendum.

This is as divorced from reality as your contention that the S&D parliamentary group is social democratic.

Advantageous within Labour itself, not necessarily in a general election (which I discussed in the post mortem thread). Given the numbers of pro-2nd referendum motions passed by constituency meetings in 2018, there was clearly an internal advantage to setting himself up as their champion. Even here, as noted, he was cautious.

As for PLP groupings, I've no strong feelings either way.

 

[William of Walworth]

As a Sunday paper the Observer is always going to be more reliant on spooks because of the print lead-in times to get exclusives: they cannot compete with dailies for immediacy.

That definitely rings bells for me (I've read both papers for years )

 

[SpookyFrank]

Quite. And the growing consensus among the leadership hopefuls is that there is no need to do so. Wait for Corbyn to shuffle off, keep the head down till this Brexit thing dies down and maybe thin out the spending plan - then it'll all be okay again.

Delusional.

More like wait for Brexit to ruin everything, then win by default on a platform of nothing.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

More like wait for Brexit to ruin everything, then win by default on a platform of nothing.

can you give some examples of what you fear will be ‘ruined’?

 

[cantsin]

With fans like this...

huh ? what was so divisive / otherwise about that tweet ?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I’m not saying it does. Just may be good to remind us.

Well RLB and her campaign have certainly made us all see the light about Rob Marris.

I note momentum have ‘gone big’ on this tale.

Fucking idiots

 

[William of Walworth]

Rob Marris.

So obscure that I had to look the name up

 

[Smokeandsteam]

So obscure that I had to look the name up

Indeed. But what purpose does this serve? Reopening sectarian/factional battles is just a really bad look. I’m starting to really dislike RLB - either be yourself and dispense with this shit or own it etc

 

[William of Walworth]

Indeed. But what purpose does this serve? Reopening sectarian/factional battles is just a really bad look. I’m starting to really dislike RLB - either be yourself and dispense with this shit or own it etc

Completely agree -- she comes over as the most divisive candidate, and that's saying a lot.

 

[Mr Moose]

Indeed. But what purpose does this serve? Reopening sectarian/factional battles is just a really bad look. I’m starting to really dislike RLB - either be yourself and dispense with this shit or own it etc

Well you are probably right, but are you ready to move on if Labour ends up with Starmer?

 

[Humberto]

If Starmer 'wins' they've no chance. The scales are fixed. That's not his fault, but you've got to be realistic. He is a shit candidate with nothing to offer.

 

[William of Walworth]

I'm even more depressed about it than that, because I don't think Starmer's completely shit (note emphasis!)

I think he could well contrive a half-way competent job at moving the LP towards somewhere half-way efficient, half-way competent**, with a half-reasonable set of soft-left policies, which are half-way but not completely Blairite, and as such winning a half-decent number of seats -- and those mostly but not completely in the wrong areas

**And there's a lot to be said for that in pure operational and Seamus Milne-free terms

Compared to that, Nandy's drawbacks look a fair bit more acceptable IMO ...

 

[Mr Moose]

I'm even more depressed about it than that, because I don't think Starmer's completely shit (note emphasis!)

I think he could well contrive a half-way competent job at moving the LP towards somewhere half-way efficient, half-way competent**, with a half-reasonable set of soft-left policies, which are half-way but not completely Blairite, and as such winning a half-decent number of seats -- and those mostly but not completely in the wrong areas

**And there's a lot to be said for that in pure operational and Seamus Milne-free terms

Compared to that, Nandy's drawbacks look a fair bit more acceptable IMO ...

Maybe, but it’s debatable that those small town votes lost to the Tories are crying out for something demonstrably very left wing any more than they are desperate for more Blair if neither vary from a top down model.

I don’t suspect there is a great deal of difference across the candidates politics. All three would retain fair chunks of Labour’s programme while endeavouring not to scare the horses. All will get called too barmy and too much the same old Lib Elite, probably on the same day.

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe, but it’s debatable that those small town votes lost to the Tories are crying out for something demonstrably very left wing any more than they are desperate for more Blair if neither vary from a top down model.

I don’t suspect there is a great deal of difference across the candidates politics. All three would retain fair chunks of Labour’s programme while endeavouring not to scare the horses. All will get called too barmy and too much the same old Lib Elite, probably on the same day.

they want eric blair

although i suspect he'd be more the road to wigan's peer than the road to wigan pier

 

[Humberto]

I'm even more depressed about it than that, because I don't think Starmer's completely shit (note emphasis!)

I think he could well contrive a half-way competent job at moving the LP towards somewhere half-way efficient, half-way competent**, with a half-reasonable set of soft-left policies, which are half-way but not completely Blairite, and as such winning a half-decent number of seats -- and those mostly but not completely in the wrong areas

**And there's a lot to be said for that in pure operational and Seamus Milne-free terms

Compared to that, Nandy's drawbacks look a fair bit more acceptable IMO ...

It seems like something the Lib Dems would have done five years ago.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm even more depressed about it than that, because I don't think Starmer's completely shit (note emphasis!)

I think he could well contrive a half-way competent job at moving the LP towards somewhere half-way efficient, half-way competent**, with a half-reasonable set of soft-left policies, which are half-way but not completely Blairite, and as such winning a half-decent number of seats -- and those mostly but not completely in the wrong areas

**And there's a lot to be said for that in pure operational and Seamus Milne-free terms

Compared to that, Nandy's drawbacks look a fair bit more acceptable IMO ...

This idea that a half-reasonable soft left platform would engage the public without drawing the ire of the tory press is undermined by the experience of Ed Miliband, who failed to rebuild any kind of Labour base with his wishy-washy shite but got monstered by the media anyway. The only thing which would interest me is someone saying fuck the press, fuck the chattering classes, we're going to talk directly to working people and actually support them, which is the right thing to do whether it gets us elected or not. None of the candidates are even close to that, and even if they were the current PLP wouldn't stand for it.

A lot of Corbyn's missteps I can let him off for, on the grounds that he didn't have many better options. But failing to plan for his probable downfall by identifying a credible successor, that just smacks of arrogance. Long-Bailey is a joke.

 

[killer b]

The problem is that Long Bailey is the most credible successor. There's no-one else in the frame.

 

[Pickman's model]

tbh the bigger question is who will be the leader after next as i don't suppose the next one's going to win an election: they'll be a kinnock for our time

 

[Smokeandsteam]

This idea that a half-reasonable soft left platform would engage the public without drawing the ire of the tory press is undermined by the experience of Ed Miliband, who failed to rebuild any kind of Labour base with his wishy-washy shite but got monstered by the media anyway. The only thing which would interest me is someone saying fuck the press, fuck the chattering classes, we're going to talk directly to working people and actually support them, which is the right thing to do whether it gets us elected or not. None of the candidates are even close to that, and even if they were the current PLP wouldn't stand for it.

Long-Bailey is a joke.

Agree on both points.

Given 4 certainties: that whoever they elect will be attacked unless, like Blair, they clearly signal a full accommodation with the demands of capital and its intellectual outriders. That membership will remain over 500,000 and will be full of people who a) want to do something real and meaningful and b) want an end to Stalinist top downing. Third, that social media and active and sustained campaigning in communities will count in ordinary people’s minds as much if not more than what the cobweb media think. Lived fucking experience. And finally any strategy that takes as it’s starting point that all is well, we just need to get rid of Corbyn and wait for Brexit to calm down, is doomed to disaster. On this basis what you suggest is exactly what I want to hear from a candidate.

Talking of doomed for disaster- as for RLB her campaign, her appeal, her aura is just....fucking depressingly bad.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Agree on both points.

Given 4 certainties: that whoever they elect will be attacked unless, like Blair, they clearly signal a full accommodation with the demands of capital and its intellectual outriders. That membership will remain over 500,000 and will be full of people who a) want to do something real and meaningful and b) want an end to Stalinist top downing. Third, that social media and active and sustained campaigning in communities will count in ordinary people’s minds as much if not more than what the cobweb media think. Lived fucking experience. And finally any strategy that takes as it’s starting point that all is well, we just need to get rid of Corbyn and wait for Brexit to calm down, is doomed to disaster. On this basis what you suggest is exactly what I want to hear from a candidate.

Talking of doomed for disaster- as for RLB her campaign, her appeal, her aura is just....fucking depressingly bad.

I'd disagree about social media. The way it's all set up, particularly facebook, makes it difficult to get any traction outside the bubble of people who already support you. The tories do fine because they pay for advertising and have established corporate media outlets working for them. Independent, non-profit media has its influence 'capped' by Zuckerberg, and particularly under Corbyn that's where most of the Labour messaging was. Relying on facebook is as doomed as hoping for a fair shake from the BBC or the telegraph IMO.

 

[Mr Moose]

they want eric blair

although i suspect he'd be more the road to wigan's peer than the road to wigan pier

Very good. Enlivening a contest that has thus far been a homage to catatonia.

 

[Mr Moose]

This idea that a half-reasonable soft left platform would engage the public without drawing the ire of the tory press is undermined by the experience of Ed Miliband, who failed to rebuild any kind of Labour base with his wishy-washy shite but got monstered by the media anyway. The only thing which would interest me is someone saying fuck the press, fuck the chattering classes, we're going to talk directly to working people and actually support them, which is the right thing to do whether it gets us elected or not. None of the candidates are even close to that, and even if they were the current PLP wouldn't stand for it.

A lot of Corbyn's missteps I can let him off for, on the grounds that he didn't have many better options. But failing to plan for his probable downfall by identifying a credible successor, that just smacks of arrogance. Long-Bailey is a joke.

I agree that soft Labour isn’t going to have much appeal and neither is Blairism. Things have moved on. The print media isn’t going to back that form of neoliberalism any more. It has a new model with a more nationalist, parochial interest that sells itself as the UK gone truly global. Any reheated Blairism is just the old discredited liberal elite when another liberal elite is in ascendency.

It’s tempting to give a resounding ‘fuck off’ to everything, but the Labour leader is to audition to run the bourgeois state, not destroy it (other than through ineptitude, hooray!). It’s simply implausible to believe that voters lost to the Tories (not lost to the Greens or the Looneys) don’t care about competence or are ready to overthrow capitalism. On the contrary, many have a capitalist imagination as it fits with the self-reliance imposed upon them by industrial decay.

 

[two sheds]

The problem is that Long Bailey is the most credible successor. There's no-one else in the frame.

Perhaps he was counting on Pidcock.

 

[8ball]

There's no-one else in the frame.

I think some over-zealous cropping may have occurred.

 

[killer b]

Perhaps, and perhaps that they might have a couple more years to get someone into position, or for Long Bailey to develop more political nous.

They may be nominally in charge of the party, but the Labour left in parliament remains a tiny group, and Long Bailey is their biggest hitter outside the outgoing leadership.