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Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?


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Because there's a recording.

That only demonstrates that there was a bit of a heated row, nothing more.

This non-story is seriously pissing me off, there's so much to attack Johnson on, and we've got this sideshow of fucking nonsense, that will get forgotten in a few days.
 
What a craven, scummy bunch. We knew that already but this is a new low. They printed the bloody housing plan and location because they were pro-Remain!!

 
That only demonstrates that there was a bit of a heated row, nothing more.
The point is there's a recording, which, ATM, the guardian doesn't feel justified in making public. But, as soon as Johnson makes a public characterisation of what happened, they have their justification: let people judge for themselves. That's why he can't just make light of it.
 
That only demonstrates that there was a bit of a heated row, nothing more.

This non-story is seriously pissing me off, there's so much to attack Johnson on, and we've got this sideshow of fucking nonsense, that will get forgotten in a few days.

It feels very much like Trump to me. It doesn't matter what is revealed about Johnson's 'pecadillos'. The tory faithful will still vote for him and he'll become PM. Unlike Trump, Johnson also has a record in office to be held to account for, and a dismal one. But the tory faithful don't care about that either. If the focus were instead on his corrupt mismanagement of London or incompetence as Foreign Sec, that also wouldn't make any difference. His record as a journalist? They don't care. He's racist? So what? He's a philanderer? So what? He's corrupt? So what? He's lazy? So what? He's a liar? So what?

This isn't a rational decision-making process. And given that, having the focus on a slanging match he's had with his lover probably suits him just fine. As long as she doesn't open her gob publicly, he's fine. More than fine. Cunt won't dare to touch it, presumably, and with the press he just does what he's doing now, which is nothing.
 
If they wanted to milk the story, they should have held off revealing there was a tape at all until a couple of days later, let the guy almost bullshit his way out of it, then drop the bomb.
 
That only demonstrates that there was a bit of a heated row, nothing more.

This non-story is seriously pissing me off, there's so much to attack Johnson on, and we've got this sideshow of fucking nonsense, that will get forgotten in a few days.
Other neighbours have now corroborated that the row was very, very serious indeed. When you're talking about the UK's probable next PM, reporting such behaviour is most definitely is in the public interest.

More Boris Johnson neighbours confirm 'tear-up' with partner
 
Ach the old rascal. Commendable energy. Just the sort of vigour we need. Churchill was no saint, what?


Unless he actually hit her, and it sounds like he didn't otherwise we'd know already, this is a non-story.
 
It will take much more than a loud domestic argument to rattle the confidence of the Tory faithful.
A former pm was accused of performing a sex act with a pig’s head.
If anything it gave him more credibility.
 
Ach the old rascal. Commendable energy. Just the sort of vigour we need. Churchill was no saint, what?


Unless he actually hit her, and it sounds like he didn't otherwise we'd know already, this is a non-story.

The domestic incident absolutely is a non-story, but how they (his campaign) have behaved afterwards is not.

I know it isn't exactly unprecedented, but the sight of at least four national papers and at least a dozen hopelessly compromised but influential commentators / hacks openly going after normal members of the public because they happened to do something that society expects them to do is (or should be) an absolute outrage. It is bad enough when they target other politicians, activists and campaigners but to throw normal people to the wolves - to publish their addresses, to stir up a mob that they know regularly steps over the line and to describe them with the same idiotically divisive language that they have used for their other hate figures like judges and foreigners - is behaviour that is several degrees worse than what they were doing pre-Leveson.

What really sticks in the throat though is this insistance that recording private conversations and then giving them to the Press is somehow morally wrong, which is perhaps the most hypocritical statement I have ever heard.
 
If there was clear evidence of dv the guardian would have at least reported that if not released the tape. But the get off me and female screams might indicate that. Hard to conclude anything without Carrie's input. But it's not 'nothing'.
 
Eh? I'm talking in terms of any damage this will cause him, not making a moral point.
Sorry, wasn't accusing you of a Victorian attitude to dv. But the damage it might cause him also isn't necessarily determined by whether she has bruises. If people determine or suspect he's an arsehole, that's damage.

Trouble is a relative lack of Venn diagram crossover between people who would give a shit and people who have a vote. So you may have a point from that perspective.
 
I believe that Johnson will sadly become PM, as (alleged) tory violence towards women seems to be a thing that tory supporters are all too willing to dismiss. But if a woman makes a joke about violence towards male politicians, well, that's another thing altogether... if anything, this is being seen as a smear tactic against Johnson. Like the latest allegations against Trump - which, as usual, he dismissed because all these women are lying etc :mad:
 
Sorry, wasn't accusing you of a Victorian attitude to dv. But the damage it might cause him also isn't necessarily determined by whether she has bruises. If people determine or suspect he's an arsehole, that's damage.

Trouble is a relative lack of Venn diagram crossover between people who would give a shit and people who have a vote. So you may have a point from that perspective.
Well I was wrong about one thing. Cunt has taken it up.
 
Dominating headlines for three days now. Doesn’t matter whether we think it’s a big deal or not, it’s clearly being amplified by the media to damage his campaign for whatever their reasons (anti-brexit, not their particular man etc). Not sure he will shake this that easily.

At this stage probably better for Tory haters if he won, as he’ll be damaged before he even starts leading the party, makes a government collapse more likely.
 
I wonder if it’s been the plan all along to slip Hunt in.
Is it the old Tory trick of threaten you with something unpalatable and then slip in something less deplorable.
So the voters then believe the Tories aren’t that bad really!
 
Hunt getting it is more likely to help Farage. If there’s a conspiracy to put Hunt in it’s to serve that, not the Tory party. Johnson would be better for their electability.
 
Dominating headlines for three days now. Doesn’t matter whether we think it’s a big deal or not, it’s clearly being amplified by the media to damage his campaign for whatever their reasons (anti-brexit, not their particular man etc). Not sure he will shake this that easily.

At this stage probably better for Tory haters if he won, as he’ll be damaged before he even starts leading the party, makes a government collapse more likely.

yep -

The "sensible" faction of the establishment (much of big business/media/politicians/civil service) dont want Johnson, they want Hunt and they certainly do not want no deal. Hence the shit being flung at him.
But - like trump - Johnson can play on that as it being him being the maverick outsider etc - and much of the party faithful will lap it up.
But when he gets into downing street he will already be seriously weakened - not least by the fact that he has no democratic mandate from the voters.
He then has to come good on his breezy promises about brexit - which he cant. Whatever route he goes down - may's deal mark 2 having been told to fuck off by the EU - or pushing for a no deal - will be blocked by parliament and further inflame the tory civil war.
Politically his least shit option is to call a GE and go down fighting for "no deal" - that way he can keep his brexit standard barer credentials with the headbangers despite destroying the tory party and handing the key of no 10 to corbyn (who will have to go for a 2nd ref to ensure SNP and/or lib dem support )
If he tries to go for May mk2 - or anything less than full brexit - then the brexit party will eat the tory vote, you get the same result as above but he will despised for all time as charlatan and a brexit traitor.
The danger in this is if he goes "death or glory" then, even if he loses - he become a free wheeling, unrestrained cheerleader for toxic english nationalism - something which he would do with relish.
 
the last paragraph is the crucial bit:

They have to realise. They've been warned by friend and enemy alike that Boris Johnson is only good at self-promotion, but is otherwise lazy, undisciplined and incompetent. Now it's one thing for them to realise that he's undisciplined enough to risk a 'domestic incident' loud enough for the police to be called in the middle of a crucial leadership election. But the response to that story, to which they've willingly been conscripted, is to vilify the neighbours who called the cops, spark a culture war conflagration, and drag this out for days and possibly weeks. That's their man? That's their future Prime Minister? Are they quite sure about this?
 
yep -

The "sensible" faction of the establishment (much of big business/media/politicians/civil service) dont want Johnson, they want Hunt and they certainly do not want no deal. Hence the shit being flung at him.
But - like trump - Johnson can play on that as it being him being the maverick outsider etc - and much of the party faithful will lap it up.
But when he gets into downing street he will already be seriously weakened - not least by the fact that he has no democratic mandate from the voters.
He then has to come good on his breezy promises about brexit - which he cant. Whatever route he goes down - may's deal mark 2 having been told to fuck off by the EU - or pushing for a no deal - will be blocked by parliament and further inflame the tory civil war.
Politically his least shit option is to call a GE and go down fighting for "no deal" - that way he can keep his brexit standard barer credentials with the headbangers despite destroying the tory party and handing the key of no 10 to corbyn (who will have to go for a 2nd ref to ensure SNP and/or lib dem support )
If he tries to go for May mk2 - or anything less than full brexit - then the brexit party will eat the tory vote, you get the same result as above but he will despised for all time as charlatan and a brexit traitor.
The danger in this is if he goes "death or glory" then, even if he loses - he become a free wheeling, unrestrained cheerleader for toxic english nationalism - something which he would do with relish.
Isn't he likely to try to brazen out calls for a GE? I think he might be, in which case we could have at least three years of him.
 
Isn't he likely to try to brazen out calls for a GE? I think he might be, in which case we could have at least three years of him.

He wont have a choice - the EU is only going to extend the oct 31 deadline for either a 2nd ref or a general election.
Johnsons only way of avoiding that is if he magically gets a deal through Parliament by then - and that will be may's deal. Which he wont get through and will see the ERG turn on him as a traitor.
His is other option is to go "no deal" by default - and that would see the very real possibility of parliament bringing him down and forcing a general election via a VONC.
Johnson must know this - so I suspect he will pre-empt it by calling a general election before oct 31 and try to bluster his way through on a hard brexit stance.
All options lead to him crashing and burning.

put it antoher way - how will he sort brexit before Oct 31st?
 
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