Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

[killer b]

I think if he does bring something like May's deal back to parliament, he might be able to get it through tbf. There's 27 Labour MPs who'd likely vote for it, and if it's being sold by Johnson instead of May I can see the ERG getting behind it too.

 

[SpackleFrog]

the last paragraph is the crucial bit:

They have to realise. They've been warned by friend and enemy alike that Boris Johnson is only good at self-promotion, but is otherwise lazy, undisciplined and incompetent. Now it's one thing for them to realise that he's undisciplined enough to risk a 'domestic incident' loud enough for the police to be called in the middle of a crucial leadership election. But the response to that story, to which they've willingly been conscripted, is to vilify the neighbours who called the cops, spark a culture war conflagration, and drag this out for days and possibly weeks. That's their man? That's their future Prime Minister? Are they quite sure about this?

It's a good point/fair analysis but then the whole reason they're willing to gamble on Johnson is that they don't have any other cards left. They know Hunt won't win a GE.

 

[killer b]

They had Gove and they blew it, the fools.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think if he does bring something like May's deal back to parliament, he might be able to get it through tbf. There's 27 Labour MPs who'd likely vote for it, and if it's being sold by Johnson instead of May I can see the ERG getting behind it too.

not sure about that. The brexit party will be screaming betrayal - but even if he could maybe get some of the ERG on board with a nod and a wink as to what comes later - Tory remainers may be more likely to oppose him than they were may. And im not sure now many labour mps would rebel to support someone as toxic as johnson. DUP wont budge either.

 

[killer b]

I'm not sure about it either - but I'm sure that we shouldn't be sure it can't happen.

 

[Artaxerxes]

They had Gove and they blew it, the fools.

Imagine a scenario where picking Gove was the right idea.

Imagine.

 

[hash tag]

A certain Mr Gallagher on R4's breakfast this morning

“I just hang out with me and my missus and my kids, and my mates. But if I did see a politician taking drugs, man, he’d get a crack round the head.”

He added: “They shouldn’t be … they’re meant to be running the country, aren’t they?”

 

[Wilf]

the last paragraph is the crucial bit:

They have to realise. They've been warned by friend and enemy alike that Boris Johnson is only good at self-promotion, but is otherwise lazy, undisciplined and incompetent. Now it's one thing for them to realise that he's undisciplined enough to risk a 'domestic incident' loud enough for the police to be called in the middle of a crucial leadership election. But the response to that story, to which they've willingly been conscripted, is to vilify the neighbours who called the cops, spark a culture war conflagration, and drag this out for days and possibly weeks. That's their man? That's their future Prime Minister? Are they quite sure about this?

I suspect there is a real issue here, that can't be spun away or diffused. Some of the elements in the story do suggest, but not prove, domestic violence or at least bullying. Same time, it seems there was nothing in the tape that really acts as a coup de grace for his leadership ambitions. Plenty of people at the guardian and beyond have heard it now and there would have been a story at the weekend (unless of course there has been an injunction).

 

[killer b]

Imagine a scenario where picking Gove was the right idea.

Imagine.

We don't have to, we're actually living it. Well, the Tories are at least. Johnson is probably the best choice for the rest of us.

 

[TopCat]

Heady days...

 

[Wilf]

I'm not sure about it either - but I'm sure that we shouldn't be sure it can't happen.

I'm equally unsure, particularly about the impact of it being Johnson rather than May. He'll have a very brief honeymoon, of sorts, but every route is problematic. But equally, the idea that a Johnson premiership might lead to either a ref2 or gen election and no Brexit is a faint one. Weirdly, we're in a situation where no outcome is particularly likely. It might be we leave with something like May's deal, but with Johnson telling supporters he'll start becoming more kick ass when it comes to the post-exit negotiations.

 

[gosub]

Tory leadership debate cancelled because Boris Johnson refuses to take part

 

[killer b]

I'm equally unsure, particularly about the impact of it being Johnson rather than May. He'll have a very brief honeymoon, of sorts, but every route is problematic. But equally, the idea that a Johnson premiership might lead to either a ref2 or gen election and no Brexit is a faint one. Weirdly, we're in a situation where no outcome is particularly likely. It might be we leave with something like May's deal, but with Johnson telling supporters he'll start becoming more kick ass when it comes to the post-exit negotiations.

I think if there's one thing we've seen ample evidence of the last few years, it's that voters project their own desires onto politicians and political projects. If a HARD BREXIT leader brings back a repackaged deal that can be sold as not-the-old-deal-actually-this-one-is-much-harder-honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see the headbangers fall in line.

 

[Mr Moose]

I think if there's one thing we've seen ample evidence of the last few years, it's that voters project their own desires onto politicians and political projects. If a HARD BREXIT leader brings back a repackaged deal that can be sold as not-the-old-deal-actually-this-one-is-much-harder-honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see the headbangers fall in line.

Yep, in fact this is probably the only way through. Johnson can lecture Baker and Francois that Brexit is slipping away. Rees-Mogg has already shown he would vote for it. Presentation is everything.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Imagine a scenario where picking Gove was the right idea.

Imagine.

hmm - other than "who is next up against the wall?" Im stumped

 

[Kaka Tim]

But equally, the idea that a Johnson premiership might lead to either a ref2 or gen election and no Brexit is a faint one. .

The only way he is likely to avoid a gen election is get a deal through parliament before oct 31st.
The other option is to get an extension by holding a 2nd referendum.

 

[Wilf]

I think if there's one thing we've seen ample evidence of the last few years, it's that voters project their own desires onto politicians and political projects. If a HARD BREXIT leader brings back a repackaged deal that can be sold as not-the-old-deal-actually-this-one-is-much-harder-honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see the headbangers fall in line.

In fact if there really is a will in parliament to reject no deal - and there probably is - this is just about the only route open to Johnson. The irony is, he'll be dependent on the EU playing ball to do the repackaging/amending the political agreement/twiddling with the backstop wording. The one thing that does seem to fall out of the list of possibilities is a customs union. Neither Johnson or the erg would countenance it and Labour only get it if there's an election, they win it and a further extension (though the EU would no doubt like that as an outcome).

 

[kabbes]

I do think that Gove was the only chance the Tories actually had (albeit a slim one) of holding their factions together.

 

[Wilf]

The only way he is likely to avoid a gen election is get a deal through parliament before oct 31st.
The other option is to get an extension by holding a 2nd referendum.

I think this has all become a tale of 2 groups on the periphery of their parties - the tory left and the Labour right and/or leavers such as Flint. Would Tory remainers abstain or vote with Labour in a vonc (automatically getting expelled)? Would the Flint et al group vote against the Labour whip and support a repackaged May deal? Also, would they automatically vote for a vonc if they knew it was designed to lead to a 2nd ref?

 

[not a trot]

Tory leadership debate cancelled because Boris Johnson refuses to take part

Spineless fucking Toff.

 

[Wilf]

I do think that Gove was the only chance the Tories actually had (albeit a slim one) of holding their factions together.

He'd certainly be making himself available, doing the big interviews, making Johnson look bad for hiding. Gove couldn't have beaten Johnson a month ago, but there's an outside chance he could have done in these circumstances.

 

[Teaboy]

I find it amusing that for years and years those arses have been lecturing us on the importance of family, family values and evils of single parent families. Now here they are about to force upon us the personification of the exact opposite of all that lecturing. A man who has done more to bring about the existence of single parent families and children growing up away from their father then vast amounts of people in the country.

 

[killer b]

I think this has all become a tale of 2 groups on the periphery of their parties - the tory left and the Labour right and/or leavers such as Flint. Would Tory remainers abstain or vote with Labour in a vonc (automatically getting expelled)? Would the Flint et al group vote against the Labour whip and support a repackaged May deal? Also, would they automatically vote for a vonc if they knew it was designed to lead to a 2nd ref?

One of the purposes of the Labour position on Brexit has been to keep the Labour rebels onside - and on the whole, it's been successful - EG a few months ago Snell and Nandy proposed an amendment to the withdrawal bill which involved stuff about workers right etc etc - it wasn't picked by the speaker, but the government agreed to put it in anyway. Snell and Nandy (and most of the other brexit leaning Labour MPs) still voted with the Labour whip against it.

I think there has been a change in position from these MPs recently, signalled by Snell's speech to parliament the other week where he expressed regret not voting for the WA. The recent letter they all signed in the wake of the EP elections looked to me like them signalling they'd vote for a deal too. I really do think there's a good chance of it getting through if they bring it back with some cosmetic changes.

One thing though, I don't think any Labour MP could vote against or abstain on a VONC and expect to retain the Labour whip. All of them voted for the motion in the spring.

 

[treelover]

Hunt's team has just called Johnson, 'Bottler Boris'.

The gloves are off, blue on blue begins.

 

[killer b]

wow that is harsh.

 

[killer b]

how can johnson come back from that?

 

[treelover]

 

[Wilf]

Kenny Everett cheated death and got a job as a cameraman?

 

[Dogsauce]

how can johnson come back from that?

Fuck knows, but somewhere right now there will be a bunch of people in a room being paid a lot of money to try and dig him out of this hole and fill it back in again. Would love to be a fly on the wall.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Fuck knows, but somewhere right now there will be a bunch of people in a room being paid a lot of money to try and dig him out of this hole and fill it back in again. Would love to be a fly on the wall.

Think kb was employing the device of sarcasm