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Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

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    165
I know Hammond isn't currently in the frame, but I'm sure he's just biding his time, wouldn't surprise me if he were in the chair in less than a year, unless he does something exceptionally stupid of course.
 
It makes me laugh that people think he 'likes the ladies'.

He doesn't. He likes sex and he's straight. He's also as far as I can tell a dangerous misogynist. Amongst other things. This might turn out to be 'just a fight' but I would put money on the chickens coming home to roost for him very soon. There is a rich seam of 'interesting' stories, mark my words. The question is, what will it take?!
 
Poot said:
It makes me laugh that people think he 'likes the ladies'.

He doesn't. He likes sex and he's straight. He's also as far as I can tell a dangerous misogynist. Amongst other things. This might turn out to be 'just a fight' but I would put money on the chickens coming home to roost for him very soon. There is a rich seam of 'interesting' stories, mark my words. The question is, what will it take?!
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I feel bad reducing probable dv down to it's impact on the tory leadership campaign, but I don't get a sense that this will do for him. Read something earlier from another neighbour along the lines of 'I heard Carrie being very loud and BJ trying to calm her down', which johnson's team will be all over. To be clear, him trying to calm her down is entirely consistent with a prior act of dv, but the whole thing isn't quite shaping up as a killer blow.But yeah, it'll depend on how bad the recording sounds and whether other stories follow over the weekend.
 
Poot said:
It makes me laugh that people think he 'likes the ladies'.

He doesn't. He likes sex and he's straight. He's also as far as I can tell a dangerous misogynist. Amongst other things. This might turn out to be 'just a fight' but I would put money on the chickens coming home to roost for him very soon. There is a rich seam of 'interesting' stories, mark my words. The question is, what will it take?!
Click to expand...
Liked because I mostly agree, BUT I'm not all that hopeful about those chickens, to be honest. :(
 
Celyn said:
Liked because I mostly agree, BUT I'm not all that hopeful about those chickens, to be honest. :(
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I think it will be a case of everyone's view of what's acceptable shifting sideways to accommodate him because he's *hilarious*. Like when Trump did all of those things and everyone went 'ah well, that's just Trump'. It feels like the Emperor's New Clothes every day. Why is nobody seeing?!
 
The neighbour speaks:

“In the early hours of Friday morning, I answered a phone call from a takeaway food delivery driver. At the same time, I heard what sounded like shouting coming from the street.

“I went downstairs, on the phone to the driver, and collected my food. On the way back into my flat, it became clear that the shouting was coming from a neighbour’s flat. It was loud enough and angry enough that I felt frightened and concerned for the welfare of those involved, so I went inside my own home, closed the door, and pressed record on the voice memos app on my phone.

“After a loud scream and banging, followed by silence, I ran upstairs, and with my wife agreed that we should check on our neighbours. I knocked three times at their front door, but there was no response. I went back upstairs into my flat, and we agreed that we should call the police.

“The police arrived within five minutes. Our call was made anonymously, and no names were given to the police. They subsequently called back to thank us for reporting, and to let us know that nobody was harmed.

“To be clear, the recordings were of the noise within my own home. My sole concern up until this point was the welfare and safety of our neighbours. I hope that anybody would have done the same thing.

“Once clear that no one was harmed, I contacted the Guardian, as I felt it was of important public interest. I believe it is reasonable for someone who is likely to become our next prime minister to be held accountable for all of their words, actions and behaviours.

“I, along with a lot of my neighbours all across London, voted to remain within the EU. That is the extent of my involvement in politics.

“The unpleasant things being said about myself and my partner, and some quite frankly bizarre and fictitious allegations, have been upsetting for not only us, but also for family, friends and fellow Camberwell neighbours, who are currently being harangued by the media. I would ask that you leave private citizens alone and focus instead on those who have chosen to run for power within the public eye.

“The attempts from some areas of the press to instead focus their stories on us, and in particular my wife, have been eye-opening, and very alarming. I would encourage anyone to record any instances where they feel concerned for another person’s safety.”
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That is four times this week that the free and fearless press have gone after people who have - even accidentally - stood in Boris Johnson's way. It is also going to be a long night for anyone called Tom Penn on Twitter.
 
All That Is Solid ...: Letting Johnson Be Johnson

Mark Field must think he's the luckiest man in British politics at the moment. His forcible ejection of/assault on Greenpeace activist Janet Baker made it look like it was curtains for his ministerial career and, by association, embarrass the Jeremy Hunt campaign with which he's closely involved. Then the fates threw a 500-pound dead lion onto the table. The press are wall-to-wall with the news that police were called to Boris Johnson's residence in the early hours of Friday morning following a row, of which the Graun claims to have a recording. Ouch. This will no doubt work its way into the public domain in due course, but we don't really need to hear it. The commentary provided by a concerned neighbour reinforces the impression of Johnson as pampered, thoughtless, and selfish. Exactly the kind of qualities one should avoid in a Prime Minister, and a headache Johnson could have done without as he faces his first hustings in front of the Tory party membership. Which is why he avoided answering questions on this completely.

While this also keeps the unfortunate news that the Tories are facing a by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire following the unseating of Chris Davies for a false expenses claim from troubling the popular consciousness, it hasn't been a kind 24 hours for the Conservative Party. The key question though is does any of it matter? Well, yes, of course it does. If you are a domestic abuse survivor, if the coarsening of public life appalls you, if you are sickened by how our so-called betters get away with awful behaviour while the rest of us are held to much higher standards, if you are angry about how this shit is normalised and trivialised, it matters a damn deal. But is any of it going to change minds about the party and, crucially, shift members' votes away from Johnson?

I very much doubt it.

There are a few of his supporters who look fondly back at how Have I Got News For Youlaunched his career as a post-irony banter politician, but that was 15 years ago. Still, we shouldn't be surprised many Conservatives prefer to dwell in the past. Nevertheless, some find his trying act entertaining and genuinely thinks it connects with people. Their problem is that thanks to his antics in more recent years, you're just as likely to find as many abhor him as adore him. However, Johnson's getting away with it is more than just media coverage being favourable (seriously, would you call this morning's reporting positive for his campaign?). As we've recently noted the relationship a large chunk of members have with the Tory party is entirely instrumental. You see something similar with Trump in the US. Despite behaviour that should have America's waning fundamentalist Christianity community clutching their pearls in horror, they duly trooped to the polling stations and back for him in the belief he'll hasten the coming of the lord or some such quasi-theological nonsense. The same is true of a Johnson-led Tory party and Brexit. Indeed, a chunk of those backers are resigned to the view his no deal rhetoric is just that and a betrayal is coming, but at present he's their best bet.

As such, whatever character defects Johnson has is irrelevant. And for the same reason, revelations about Nigel Farage's commercial activities, dealings with Russians or whatever, and everything else thrown at him bounces off because, in a political sense, both are tools. They are means to particular ends. Johnson's many faults are priced in to the Tory imaginary. The yellowing grassroots think they're getting a step closer to their Brexit fantasy, and those around him get the positions they desire while Johnson indulges the thing that matters the most: himself. As such it's very difficult to see what could possibly stop Johnson from getting in to Number 10, short of him withdrawing from the contest.
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As you will know if you saw the news, during the hustings today Johnson was asked repeatedly about the police incident and "personal lives", questions he chose to avoid answering.
 
radio 5 was on in the car a bit earlier- the british public still seem to think he is a great bloke- you can have a laugh with him. Funny name, funny guy.
 
xenon said:
This. There are people saying it just shows his human side everyone has arguments with their partners. Yeah I have, my parents argued, never once did the police have to come round though. His supporters are morons or moronic scum.
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Loads of Tory listeners on Any Answers, dismissing it, often moral majority types who would be outraged if anyone else.
 
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