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Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

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Smokeandsteam said:
In the new politics stuff like this latest ‘scandal’ just adds to the outside narrative that BJ, Trump require and create.
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Only up to a point. It really does depend what's on the tape - if it's obviously just a heated row, then they might be able to shrug it off. If it's a record of a serious act of domestic violence - and it really sounds right now like it could be either - then I think it could seriously damage him.

I think it damages him anyway tbf. Maybe not fatally, but there's a lot of people who yesterday morning may have been reasonably comfortable with the idea of a Johnson government as long as he can win who are suddenly a lot less comfortable.
 
I think the words she apparently used, about him being spoiled and rich and not caring about things because he can just replace them (not a direct quote, but from memory) might have some significance/resonance, in addition to the alleged violence.

Possibly more with the wider public than with the immediate selectorate of Tory members, admittedly.
 
The optics (sorry) will be a huge political concern as well - the damage that a PM being arrested for DV would cause is astonishing. some of the ERG loons might not get it, but a large slice of the 150-odd Tory MP's who've voted for him will, and the others hate his guts anyway.
 
andysays said:
I think the words she apparently used, about him being spoiled and rich and not caring about things because he can just replace them (not a direct quote, but from memory) might have some significance/resonance, in addition to the alleged violence.

Possibly more with the wider public than with the immediate selectorate of Tory members, admittedly.
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The times had some nice detail about the neighbours saying his car is regularly parked illegally outside the flat and has multiple parking tickets, as he doesn't give a fuck. Absolute gold for Labour in any upcoming general election.
 
killer b said:
The times had some nice detail about the neighbours saying his car is regularly parked illegally outside the flat and has multiple parking tickets, as he doesn't give a fuck. Absolute gold for Labour in any upcoming general election.
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dunno - it plays to the "what a rebel/renegade" image. Sticking it to the parking warden (BOO!) jeremy clarkson type schiz. The Aggression , the bullying, the sexism and racism - all part of his "colourful" persona. See also - donald trump. Johnson may well go for this plus tub thumping nationalism in an election - it may not win him power, but the shit it stirs will not be good.
 
Kaka Tim said:
dunno - it plays to the "what a rebel/renegade" image. Sticking it to the parking warden (BOO!) jeremy clarkson type schiz. The Aggression , the bullying, the sexism and racism - all part of his "colourful" persona. See also - donald trump. Johnson may well go for this plus tub thumping nationalism in an election - it may not win him power, but the shit it stirs will not be good.
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There's a line somewhere in the public imagination between 'sticking it to the man' and being a selfish cunt to your partner, your neighbours and basically everyone around you.

Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I think Johnson may have crossed it.
 
Fing is, yeah, that if Boris's political enemies try to use things like this against him too much it will smack of a smear campaign.

And if many people think he is being purposefully smeared it won't hurt him at all - may even help him as it makes him a victim
 
D'wards said:
Fing is, yeah, that if Boris's political enemies try to use things like this against him too much it will smack of a smear campaign.

And if many people think he is being purposefully smeared it won't hurt him at all - may even help him as it makes him a victim
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That is clearly what they think they can turn this into (given how much effort his surrogates are putting into it) but its doubtful that even this current public would buy that - its too commonplace an event for people to be confused by and there is abundant evidence that it happened.

I agree he could possibly deal with this, though not if they manage to get the tape subject to an injunction.
 
agricola said:
That is clearly what they think they can turn this into (given how much effort his surrogates are putting into it) but its doubtful that even this current public would buy that - its too commonplace an event for people to be confused by and there is abundant evidence that it happened.

I agree he could possibly deal with this, though not if they manage to get the tape subject to an injunction.
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I was listening to LBC this morning and the presenter, Andrew Castle, said he'd heard the tape and there was nothing too damning on it. I'm not sure if he's a Boris fan, Castle, but i think he may be a Tory.
 
killer b said:
I think it damages him anyway tbf. Maybe not fatally, but there's a lot of people who yesterday morning may have been reasonably comfortable with the idea of a Johnson government as long as he can win who are suddenly a lot less comfortable.
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I think this is especially true going beyond the leadership election. At the moment while this damages him with Tory members I don't think it'd fatal damage. But as you say this is gold for Labour.
 
Kaka Tim said:
it will be shrugged off - alongside a smear campaign against the neighbours for being "snoopers" (despite doing exactly the right thing in what sounded like it could very well be a case of domestic violence)
the johnson fans amongst the tory party members will not give a fuck. They would probably argue that a man has a right to put his wife or mistress in their proper place in the privacy of his own home.

ETA - i wonder how long before Clare Fox of another one of the Int of Id lot pen an article or tweet something decrying the "snooper society"
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This. There are people saying it just shows his human side everyone has arguments with their partners. Yeah I have, my parents argued, never once did the police have to come round though. His supporters are morons or moronic scum.
 
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D'wards said:
I was listening to LBC this morning and the presenter, Andrew Castle, said he'd heard the tape and there was nothing too damning on it. I'm not sure if he's a Boris fan, Castle, but i think he may be a Tory.
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Well a quick Google shows hes played tennis with Cameron so he's definitely a cunt. 'not too damning' were his words? Makes me go hmmmm interesting he didn't say it was nothing at all, I wonder how much work 'too' is doing there
 
binka said:
Well a quick Google shows hes played tennis with Cameron so he's definitely a cunt. 'not too damning' were his words? Makes me go hmmmm interesting he didn't say it was nothing at all, I wonder how much work 'too' is doing there
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Not too damning are my words. He basically said there was nothing too it and it was a smear.
 
kebabking said:
The optics (sorry) will be a huge political concern as well - the damage that a PM being arrested for DV would cause is astonishing. some of the ERG loons might not get it, but a large slice of the 150-odd Tory MP's who've voted for him will, and the others hate his guts anyway.
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Could be first PM to trigger a recall petition if he did get nicked in office.
 
I put a couple of quid on jeremy hunt yesterday, thinking his odds might drop today due to this johnson thing and I would bet against him.
I checked back today and his odds have actually gone up! bastards.

5.9 yesterday, 8 today.
 
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