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Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

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killer b said:
I vaguely recall there was some plan to prevent that happening again, but I don't remember any of the details...
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That rings a bell actually - wanting the process to seem a bit less like a coronation? Given all what's been going on I doubt they ever got round to making changes though.

Johnson's in real trouble, I think. It's a Guardian scoop, but the Mail went for the story big on their front page too. If that continues over the weekend, then the dam might well break. There's a lot of Johnson material that could be dusted down and used. "How many children do you have, Boris?" etc.

And even if this fizzles, or he rides the wave and gets the majority of member votes anyway. the question that looms large is: can Johnson command the confidence of the House of Commons? I hae ma doots aboot that.
 
killer b said:
There's a recording of a violent altercation and a woman screaming for him to get off her. Him refusing to leave her flat when repeatedly asked to. I mean... it might not be enough to do for him. But if I were one of the grey suits, I'd be handing him a revolver in the morning.
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They've gone too far with him for that now; its defend him or watch all that effort, all that money and the control of the party (and the government, and Brexit) evaporate into nothingness.
 
it will be shrugged off - alongside a smear campaign against the neighbours for being "snoopers" (despite doing exactly the right thing in what sounded like it could very well be a case of domestic violence)
the johnson fans amongst the tory party members will not give a fuck. They would probably argue that a man has a right to put his wife or mistress in their proper place in the privacy of his own home.

ETA - i wonder how long before Clare Fox of another one of the Int of Id lot pen an article or tweet something decrying the "snooper society"
 
It all hinges on the audio doesn't it? So the guardian has it and Johnson is applying for an injunction. The neighbours should have put it out on twitter or something before Johnson even knew it existed
 
binka said:
It all hinges on the audio doesn't it? So the guardian has it and Johnson is applying for an injunction. The neighbours should have put it out on twitter or something before Johnson even knew it existed
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It does, but successfully injuncting it (which will be very difficult) is going to make people assume whats on there anyway; plus there isn't just the neighbour's tape - there will be bodycam footage from all the cops that attended as well.
 
'the only person who can beat Johnson is Johnson'. It's delicious that it should be at be at the hand of a Guardian reader.

Conveniently Hunt is a full member of the ruling class, with hundreds of years of pedigree.


Which side is Crosby on this time?
 
Proper Tidy said:
Imagine if it does fuck Johnson and we get Hunt, easier prey for Labour attacks around NHS, moves it away from brexit brexit brexit. I mean Johnson will probably get away with it but nice thought
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Also far less likely to tilt towards Farage, and bring the voters that have gone to him back onboard. Basically May mk2, similar capital with the nutty fringe of the party so the divide remains. Only Gove would have bridged this divide
 
Dogsauce said:
Also far less likely to tilt towards Farage, and bring the voters that have gone to him back onboard. Basically May mk2, similar capital with the nutty fringe of the party so the divide remains. Only Gove would have bridged this divide
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johnsons would have easily beaten gove as well. It doesn't really matter who wins - if the torys go anything less than hard brexit, than farage takes a big bite out of their vote, if they do go full hard deal - the party splits and they will strugggle to get 30% of the vote.
 
krtek a houby said:
He's finished. Totally. There's no way a racist, mad-haired, elitist, lying buffoon like him could ever be a world leader.
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:D

In the new politics stuff like this latest ‘scandal’ just adds to the outside narrative that BJ, Trump require and create. Every attack by the liberal political class along these lines strengthens the image. I’m amazed that the commentariat haven’t twigged that they are a massive part of the problem yet. These stories might scandalise the moral economy of some tories pining for Thatcher and the old days but frankly Johnson won’t give a fuck. BP supporters will translate this as another attempt to play the man and not the ball and the liberals will continue to howl. On we go.
 
teqniq said:
Yes. Hopefully they are fucked either way. Couldn't happen to nicer people.
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Unfortunately, they're not fucked so much as they might be temporarily forced into a more fluid form - the Tories, the DUP, the Brexit Party, and whoever else is in the Legion of Doom could have another 3 year to coagulate into something new before there is a general election.
 
Dogsauce said:
Also far less likely to tilt towards Farage, and bring the voters that have gone to him back onboard. Basically May mk2, similar capital with the nutty fringe of the party so the divide remains. Only Gove would have bridged this divide
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Hunt was delivered as the opponent precisely for these reasons. BJ can beat him up and in doing do visibility trash the May era and send the message that it’s over and it’s time for a large slice of base to come home. The yougov poll of yesterday indicates movement already. In that sense Hunt has got a massive role to play here as the blood sacrifice paving the way for ‘a new approach’. How much of this new approach will have substance we are yet to know, but it’s the impression of one that really counts at this point.
 
Yossarian said:
Unfortunately, they're not fucked so much as they might be temporarily forced into a more fluid form - the Tories, the DUP, the Brexit Party, and whoever else is in the Legion of Doom could have another 3 year to coagulate into something new before there is a general election.
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they dont have a majority. They go "no deal" then they will lost mps. If they dont they get fucked by the brexit party. They have until 31 oct to get a deal through - and Mays deal is all that is on the table as far as the EU is concerned.
It very much looks like General Election is the only option - either to try and change the numbers before the oct 31 deadline or as the condition of any further extension from the EU past that date. The other options are 2nd ref - and the tories are not going to go for that - or No Deal - which would very likely lead to them losing a VONC and thus forcing a general election.
They basically have a choice of political suicides.
 
Dogsauce said:
Unfortunately my gut instinct tells me the tories are a bit more resilient than this. Would be nice to be proved wrong.
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I know what you mean. They have always stuck together in a tight spot. This time (and I hope it's not wishful thinking) I think things may be different. The whole issue of Brexit has become completely toxic and subsequently bitterly divisive.
 
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