Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

[Pickman's model]

Incidentally, does anyone know what would have happened if Gove and Hunt had won the same number of votes?

They'd have resolved the issue in the morning with pistols

 

[Steel Icarus]

Even by your system he was at the very least an attempt to stop it just being a coronation of a bloke from Eton.

...by being beaten another bloke from Eton?

 

[killer b]

Bizarre that Raab is favourite. I don't think that would stand up to an actual leadership campaign.

If they've any sense they'll elect Gove. They don't though, so probably some fucking idiot.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

They'd have resolved the issue in the morning with pistols

If only

 

[Artaxerxes]

View attachment 174807

No deal, some fucking idiot describes all the contenders.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Parliament could vote against the sun coming up tomorrow....Default position is that it will still happen.

If Johnson trys to allow no deal to happen by default, paliament will very likley call of vote of no confidence in the government that will bring them down and thus force a general election - enough tories have indicated they would do that to make it happen - and the pressure to avoid no deal from pretty much every quarter will be intense.
Johnson may pre-empt this scenario by calling an election before oct 31 on a "no deal" platform - which would be highly risky and hugely divisive . He would very likely lose - and pray that he does - but it would probably suit him to go down in flames clutching the brexit torch rather than have to get mays deal through the commons or go for a 2nd ref.
I cant see the EU grating another extension unless it was for a GE or a 2nd ref.
Waht wont happen is Johnsons getting any better deal from the EU that the one may got.

Also - johnson is widely hated by many tory mps, and it may be that the non brexit mps are more likely to oppose him then they were May.

 

[Argonia]

Would Tories vote against the government in a VONC? I find that hard to believe.

 

[killer b]

enough tories have indicated they would do that to make it happen

Have they?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

View attachment 174807

 

[gosub]

...by being beaten another bloke from Eton?

Yes

Revealed: secret Tory plan for members to crown Boris Johnson as new leader unopposed

The verb in your post was beaten, the rest of of its been a bit meh. Which is a bit odd given the state of things.. Low on the list, is in my opinion, was the schooling the potential victor recieved

 

[killer b]

View attachment 174815

Shhh

 

[Kaka Tim]

Have they?

fair call - should be more like sundry political hacks believe their would be enough tories prepared to do this. Some have openly stated it.
I think its very likely. The political damage to the tory party from actually exiting with no deal would be terminal.

 

[kebabking]

I think that the circumstances of a VONC in the last days of October are so variable that predicting whether, and which, Tory MP's might vote against the government or suffer a diplomatic dose of the shits is just a fools game.

It would depend on the polls, local feeling in a constituancy, the optics of how the government had approached the EU, how the EU had responded, the personal relationships involved, whether the MP wanted to continue being an MP - and that might swing on boring stuff like having a mortgage to pay and knowing that the next job isn't going to be paying £80k.

I wouldn't be remotely surprised if the utterly chaotic Johnson government offend a number of Tory MP's so gratuitously that a handful do decide to not vote with the government - which doesn't necessarily mean voting with Labour - but I wouldn't stake my life on it.

 

[killer b]

I suspect it's something that isn't going to be tested, at least not in October. No Deal isn't a real political position, it's a rhetorical corner the Tories have painted themselves into. Johnson's immediate project won't be to push through No Deal, he knows as well as anyone it would be an absolute disaster - but rather to extricate the party from that corner. I dunno exactly how he plans to do this, or if it's even possible... but I expect to see him trying to sell something very like May's deal to parliament and the country by the end of the summer.

I don't think that's a totally impossible job - you only have to look at the centrist love-in with Rory Stewart these last few weeks to see that people often project onto politicians the things they want them to be rather than looking too hard at the details. I wouldn't be surprised at all if now was the time that the tory party - who favour self preservation above all else - fall in behind a brexit policy they can just about say is acceptable.

But really, who the fuck knows.

 

[not a trot]

There's a fucking big staircase in number 10, is it wrong to hope Boris falls down it on his first night as PM.

 

[Dogsauce]

The other thing is that some of the ERG types might be happier waving the withdrawal agreement through now that they have someone who campaigned for Brexit in charge of the process that will follow the WA. That’s where the meat of the deal is, and they’ll trust Johnson to produce something a bit more aggressively libertarian than May would have ever managed. Might just give them enough numbers to get the WA in place, claim the UK has now left, and catch a general election bounce from having achieved what appeared impossible.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I suspect it's something that isn't going to be tested, at least not in October. No Deal isn't a real political position, it's a rhetorical corner the Tories have painted themselves into. Johnson's immediate project won't be to push through No Deal, he knows as well as anyone it would be an absolute disaster - but rather to extricate the party from that corner. I dunno exactly how he plans to do this, or if it's even possible... but I expect to see him trying to sell something very like May's deal to parliament and the country by the end of the summer.

I don't think that's a totally impossible job - you only have to look at the centrist love-in with Rory Stewart these last few weeks to see that people often project onto politicians the things they want them to be rather than looking too hard at the details. I wouldn't be surprised at all if now was the time that the tory party - who favour self preservation above all else - fall in behind a brexit policy they can just about say is acceptable.

But really, who the fuck knows.

Numbers are still against him if he can't get the DUP on board. And as we've seen, the DUP don't quite operate to the same rules as everyone else. So the backstop. Why would the EU give Boris Johnson a different answer from the one they gave May? It's magical thinking, basically, still.

 

[killer b]

I dont imagine he does think he can get a better deal. It's rhetoric, not what he actually thinks.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Best front page today...

 

[agricola]

wow:

Police were called to the home of Boris Johnson and his partner, Carrie Symonds, in the early hours of Friday morning after neighbours heard a loud altercation involving screaming, shouting and banging.

The argument could be heard outside the property where the potential future prime minister is living with Symonds, a former Conservative party head of press.

A neighbour told the Guardian they heard a woman screaming followed by “slamming and banging”. At one point Symonds could be heard telling Johnson to “get off me” and “get out of my flat”.

The neighbour said that after becoming concerned they knocked on the door but received no response. “I [was] hoping that someone would answer the door and say ‘We’re okay’. I knocked three times and no one came to the door.”

Police called to loud altercation at Boris Johnson's home

 

[treelover]

Symonds is heard saying Johnson had ruined a sofa with red wine: “You just don’t care for anything because you’re spoilt. You have no care for money or anything.”

The neighbour said: “There was a smashing sound of what sounded like plates. There was a couple of very loud screams that I’m certain were Carrie and she was shouting to ‘get out’ a lot. She was saying ‘get out of my flat’ and he was saying no. And then there was silence after the screaming. My wife, who was in bed half asleep, had heard a loud bang and the house shook.”

Events my dear, events.

 

[cupid_stunt]

wow:

Police called to loud altercation at Boris Johnson's home

My wife, who was in bed half asleep, had heard a loud bang and the house shook.”

"the house shook"

 

[magneze]

When contacted by the Guardian on Friday, police initially said they had no record of a domestic incident at the address. But when given the case number and reference number, as well as identification markings of the vehicles that were called out, police issued a statement saying: “At 00:24hrs on Friday, 21 June, police responded to a call from a local resident in [south London]. The caller was concerned for the welfare of a female neighbour.

 

[Badgers]

This is gold

 

[treelover]

it is, but there may be a victim.

 

[Badgers]

it is, but there may be a victim.

The tax paying public?

 

[Raheem]

There's a fucking big staircase in number 10, is it wrong to hope Boris falls down it on his first night as PM.

Yes. Why the need for delay?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Scummy fucker

 

[ricbake]

wow:



Police called to loud altercation at Boris Johnson's home

Our next Prime Minister can't run his life...
What hope for the Country

 

[MickiQ]

View attachment 174815

Yep me too, hands up I was wrong, I was kinda hoping it was him not on the grounds he was the best but the least worst (of the ones likely to win anyway). Tory MP's are even worse than I feared.