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Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?


  • Total voters
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I am. From this Parliamentary Research Note https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05125/SN05125.pdf



The average age of the entire population was 40 in 2014, per ONS . The average age of the electorate isn't so easy to work out - there's multiple definitions of electorate for a start. I'd be interested if anyone has better data.
Those stats alone don't really tell you anything about whether they're older than the electorate as a whole and if I was to try and draw any speculative conclusions from it it would be that they're about in the middle.

Not that it really matters.
 
How has this buffoon proved this much more popular than the other buffoons?

depends which constituancy you're taking about.

there are Tory MP's who are voting for Johnson because its what their constituancy parties want them to do. there are Tory MP's who are voting for Johnson because, despite thinking he's an idle buffoon, the think he can stop, and reverse, the drain of tory votes, members and activists to Falange's Brexit Party. there are Tory MP's who are voting for Johnson because they think that he's a cancer in the tory party, but that he's an inevitable one - and that the sooner he's in, the sooner he's out. there are Tory MP's who are voting for Johnson because they think he's theone most likely to fuck Brexit up, and that that fuck up will provide an opportunity for a realignment - both in terms of the UK-EU relationship and within the Tory party. there are Tory MP's voting for Johnson because they hate Brexit, they hate him, and they think that the utter debacle that is Brexit, and his handling of it, will be the anchor that finally sends him into the deep.

some think he will win them a GE, and keep their seats for them.
 
The interesting thing to me, apart from the fact that two Tory MPs are apparently Urban readers, is that Gove has jumped from third to second.

I suspected from the outset that we'd end up with a Johnson/Gove run off, so I wonder how significant this will turn out to be.
 
Boris - Copy.JPG

oddly reminiscent of some of Johnson's previous behaviour...

Guppy: Fantastic. But I am telling you something, Boris. This guy has got my blood up, alright? And there is nothing which I won’t do to get my revenge. It’s as simple as that.
Johnson: How badly are you going to hurt this guy?
Guppy: Not badly at all.
Johnson: I really, I want to know …
Guppy: Look, let me explain to you…
Johnson: If this guy [see/sues?] me I will be fucking furious.
Guppy: I guarantee you he will not be seriously hurt.
Johnson: How badly will he …



Boris Johnson and Violence - Craig Murray
 
Johnson - 160 - up 3
Hunt - 77 - up 18

Gove - 75 - up 14 - OUT
Cock & ball - 1 - down 1


Well, Johnson is going to have to seriously fuck-up to lose out in the membership vote, I guess that's possible, but fairly unlikely.
 
Having reckoned on Hunt in December when Johnson looked to have fucked it I can't see his brand of beige horror beating the clown prince of evil in a popularity contest with the Tory membership.
 
Johnson - 160 - up 3
Hunt - 77 - up 18

Gove - 75 - up 14 - OUT
Cock & ball - 1 - down 1


Well, Johnson is going to have to seriously fuck-up to lose out in the membership vote, I guess that's possible, but fairly unlikely.

I wonder who the other cock and baller voted for this time?:hmm:
 
Clearly fixing the final two will make it tough for Johnson to give it the old respect democracy stuff. Actually, no it won't cos he won't give a fuck about being sincere but you know what I mean
 
Clearly fixing the final two will make it tough for Johnson to give it the old respect democracy stuff. Actually, no it won't cos he won't give a fuck about being sincere but you know what I mean
Not a very emphatic fix, if it was one, only a couple of votes in it.

My feeling is Johnson may face a more difficult opponent in Hunt than he might have faced in Gove.
 
I don't think second place was 'fixed', Hunt was in 2nd place in all the votes until this morning, when Gove got 2 votes ahead, followed by this evening Hunt regaining 2nd place by just 2 votes.

If he had done it by, say, 10 or more, then it would be questionable, but just 2 votes is too tight for any 'fixer' to have risked.
 
In my defence I went with Javid because I thought there were enough Tory MPs who hate Johnson to stitch him up in such a way that he wouldn't be in the final two. Obviously I was very wrong, they still hate him they just realised he is the only chance they have to win the next general election then they can fuck him off too.

So when will the next GE be? Must be this year surely?
 
I'm not sorry to see the back of the malignant Gove but it does look as if Boris is inevitable now. I reckon Gove might have given him a run for his money but Hunt won't.
 
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