not-bono-ever
meh
off the top of my head, i would warrant that there was less oxbridge in the cabinet a century ago than there is today,
progress
progress
Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Think it was itv actually, just on in backgroundC4 News is only just starting, how are you seeing it early?
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I very much doubt any tory will call a GE until Brexit is good and done and the tory voters who left the party (for the Brexit party) in the European vote can be counted on again. In fact I doubt there will be a GE until the term is out, whenever that is?
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Agreed.
It's not in the interest of the Tories, nor Labour, to have a GE anytime soon.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Or call a Brexit election pledging ‘no deal’ etc
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Given a deal won’t be done by October, given that a Johnson/Farage alliance around a ‘delivering Brexit for the people against the politicians’ message cannot be ruled out as impossible and given the alternative - a ‘honeymoon period’ that could collapse within three months after he encounters the same problems as May- I think ruling out a GE in the Autumn/winter is premature. I agree it’s beset with risks but so is not calling one given a variety of factors not least the arithmetic of the HoC.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Exactly. This clown show hasn't changed a thing. They're no closer to resolving anything to do with brexit than Theresa May got. As in, they're nowhere at all.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
You could be right.
My feeling is just that if the Tories don't get Brexit done (and more) they would lose a GE which is my reasoning for saying they won't call one.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Quite. The E.U. have said no more extensions without something meaningful happening, such as an election. Without an election Johnson or Cunt will be stuck with a tiny majority if they include the Northern Irish nutters in their plans and none without them. Same as May.
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gosub
~#
Even by your system he was at the very least an attempt to stop it just being a coronation of a bloke from Eton. Granted, those rare beast -the conservative membership do now have an alternative - Eton or Charterhouse? Actually find it depressing but probably to be a few of their members where their decision will be based on that.
I also thought his tweet and meet thing was refreshing. Though I sort of suspect the rest on em don't do it for fear of being refreshed (with a milkshake)
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
What if Farage announces he’s met Johnson and they agree on Brexit but it’s being blocked by ‘the political class’. What if Johnson then calls a GE and the BP announce they’ll only stand in labour seats as they ‘are a remain party’.
You can see the attraction. Especially as the alternative - trying to command a HoC majority for a deal looks impossible.
I also think Johnson has learnt from Trump that in the new politics a hacked off and cynical public like the stunt, the gesture, the two fingers to the establishment
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Sounds pretty devious Smokeandsteam, could happen I suppose. 
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Anything could happen - massive full stop.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
He’s definitely full of shit. I think however he’s also edging towards ‘no deal’ a) because it looks like the easiest option given all of the factors present b) it cements his leadership with the Tory party, membership and swathes of the electorate c) it shoots the BP fox or accommodates them in a GE alliance and d) because the alternative is inevitable electoral death for the Tories and he will want the grand gesture to shock their support back into life
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I'm still not convinced about the ability of Farage 2.0 to do much better in a GE than UKIP ever did. And any open collusion between Johnson and Farage would provide an easy target for Labour.
I don't think Johnson is an idiot, but nor do I think he really has a plan beyond getting his own worthless arse in the big chair.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Yup. Which is why the only way to get it done is via a GE - the ‘people v the parliament’ or some similar soundbite.
What the alternative? Go and see the EU, be told there are no more negotiations and what’s on the table is take it or leave it. What then?
gosub
~#
Parliament could vote against the sun coming up tomorrow....Default position is that it will still happen.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
The BP don’t need to. An alliance of the type I’m theorising allows Tory voters to come home and pins labour down in its own seats. They don’t need to win a seat just soak up a few million votes - enough to focus labour on defence - in deindustrialised and coastal areas
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
This thread is about the Tory leadership, can we take the Brexit stuff off to the Brexit thread, where it belongs?
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Not exactly a complete non-sequitur is it?
gosub
~#
a revote that would have been done by 9
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
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