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Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

  • Total voters
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I'm wondering where Johnson's sudden popularity with his fellow MPs has come from, when it was widely reported that most of them hate him.

Could it be that his loving colleagues are looking to throw him under the Brexit bus? His leadership ambitions met, stand back and wait for him to get covered in shit from the inevitable October Brexit shitstorm?
 
Spandex said:
I'm wondering where Johnson's sudden popularity with his fellow MPs has come from, when it was widely reported that most of them hate him.
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It's down to Farage & how well the Brexit Party is polling, which has put the shits up them, and they think Johnson is their best chance of winning the next GE.
 
Benjy1992 said:
That's true.

PMs for both Labour and the Tories have taken over without a GE. It is also true that Labour Party members are disproportionately left-wing, pro-EU and younger compared to the general electorate.

So it works both ways but I'm for democracy whichever way you look at it. Like Boris said, PMs should have a mandate from the British people, so he should stick to what he said. Of course he won't though.
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Regrettably we face... reluctantly I have agreed to lead... I must do my duty for the good of the nation...
 
Smokeandsteam said:
Nothing is more instructive about modern politics than the Rory Stewart love in. You can be a toff, a spook and vote for every attack on people the Tories come up with, but if you can do emote and are pro-EU all is forgiven by supposed liberals and radicals.
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He isn't even pro EU.
 
Spandex said:
I'm wondering where Johnson's sudden popularity with his fellow MPs has come from, when it was widely reported that most of them hate him.

Could it be that his loving colleagues are looking to throw him under the Brexit bus? His leadership ambitions met, stand back and wait for him to get covered in shit from the inevitable October Brexit shitstorm?
Click to expand...

He's popular with the membership and they want to remain in power. He's also not Michael Gove.


Though if this is all a plot by Gove to stab Johnson in the back again that's going to be hilarious.
 
Puddy_Tat said:
having said that, it's nothing new, and both parties have done it. within (my) memory, james callaghan, john major, gordon brown and theresa may all took over as pm without a general election, as have others before them. (john major won - somewhat to everyone's surprise - a general election about 18 months later, and theresa may got the best of a draw about a year later.)

of course boris johnson is on record that he doesn't approve of people becoming PM "without a mandate from the british people" (more here)
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This one breaks the sequence. From 1974 onwards, it's been Won/Appointed/Won/Appointed/Won/Appointed/Won/Appointed. 'Won' is supposed to come next. :mad:
 
Artaxerxes said:
He's popular with the membership and they want to remain in power. He's also not Michael Gove.


Though if this is all a plot by Gove to stab Johnson in the back again that's going to be hilarious.
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The money is on a reverse operation with Johnson getting his support to back Hunt in the final ballot to do in Gove and ensure it’s a run off between him and Hunt
 
DotCommunist said:
a crumbling wreck of a building housing a parliament designed for the administration of empire with minimal democratic input, informed and staffed by the cretinous inbred scions of the private school caste system etc etc I could go on
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Talk of the building itself reminds me they are spending £3.5 bn on the refurbishment of the House of Commons, which would put it above countries such as Burundi and Sierra Leone in the league table of annual GDP. One fucking building:
Countries by Projected GDP 2019 - StatisticsTimes.com
 
Wilf said:
Talk of the building itself reminds me they are spending £3.5 bn on the refurbishment of the House of Commons, which would put it above countries such as Burundi and Sierra Leone in the league table of annual GDP. One fucking building:
Countries by Projected GDP 2019 - StatisticsTimes.com
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to be fair it had to be done as there's no other obvious way of putting explosives round the place to finish off what guy fawkes started
 
SpineyNorman said:
I don't think the age or the EU parts are true but I'm not quite sad enough to check.
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I am. From this Parliamentary Research Note https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05125/SN05125.pdf

In 2017, the average age of Conservative party members was 57, Labour 53, Lib Dems 52 and SNP 54.
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The average age of the entire population was 40 in 2014, per ONS . The average age of the electorate isn't so easy to work out - there's multiple definitions of electorate for a start. I'd be interested if anyone has better data.
 
TheHoodedClaw said:
I am. From this Parliamentary Research Note https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05125/SN05125.pdf



The average age of the entire population was 40 in 2014, per ONS . The average age of the electorate isn't so easy to work out - there's multiple definitions of electorate for a start. I'd be interested if anyone has better data.
Click to expand...
The mean age of all persons registered on the electoral register would be one definition. Another would presumably be all persons potentially registered on the electoral register? Both would use 18 as a general starting point, though the Scottish ref used 16 so slightly complicates things. Or am I missing something obvious... :hmm:

Edit: the Scottish thing aside, I think you can register to vote at 16, but only vote at 18.
 
Wilf said:
The mean age of all persons registered on the electoral register would be one definition. Another would presumably be all persons potentially registered on the electoral register? Both would use 18 as a general starting point, though the Scottish ref used 16 so slightly complicates things. Or am I missing something obvious... :hmm:
Click to expand...

There's a different electorate for general elections than there is for Europeans and locals
 
TheHoodedClaw said:
There's a different electorate for general elections than there is for Europeans and locals
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Ah, see what you mean. As I understand it the register is the same (give or take EU citizens opting to vote in Euro elections), but there are different criteria on who can vote in each election. I'll stop there though, because I'm probably getting it wrong. :oops: Anyway, there's this:
Types of election, referendums, and who can vote
 
The most toe-curlingly cringey part of the whole sad shitshow was four spectacularly privileged white men (with one BME who didn't exactly cover himself in glory) doing their "some of my best friends are black" routine to the tory-muslim-hate question. :facepalm:
 
Last edited:
Spunking cock gets two votes.


ETA: Johnson has three more votes than all of the other wankers together so all he needs is to not lose any votes.Hell in hand basket time.
 
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