cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Looks like just a question of if Hunt or Gove ends up in the final race with Johnson.
Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
not really - Johnson appears to have got quite a few votes from non-loon Tory MP's who know that he doesn't actually believe in no-deal, or even brexit, he just does whatever is in his immediate political interest. they think he'll chin no-deal off fairly quickly.
the also-rans are a great deal closer than was forecast - the hacks and their informants thought that Hunt would get 70-80. Raab will probably bin it, Johnson is very obviously the chosen brexit candidate, he stands no chance of increasing his vote now.
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
My dreams are coming true 
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
I think I broadly agree with all of that and that Johnson will easily win. Only caveat I would add is that Johnson has clearly got support from Remain/soft Brexit Tories too and that does mean there is still space for a no deal/hard brexit candidate like Raab to gain more support and get on the ballot. Also suggests Johnson will attempt the same impossible balancing act May did too to keep the party together. But it's hard to see any other outcome than Johnson winning.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
My dreams are coming true
Thought you wanted Javid?
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
How did it ever come to this?
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
krtek a houby
Kick me again Jesus
klang
klang
and Cameron's face.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
i don't see Raab doing any better - the ERG are only 60+ strong, if they ditch Johnson because he's a bit politically flexible and go for a true believer like Raab then the soft votes won't transfer to Raab, they'll go to Hunt or whoever, and the ERG risk not getting their candidate (however flawed they may see him) on the ballot paper at all.
if/when Raab bins it all his votes will go to Johnson, which will put Johnson at about 140 out of 313, the only question is how long it takes the other 150 or so to choose which 'not Johnson' candidate they want to go for. the money for that would be Hunt, because he's got more votes than the others, but its so close that he's not the stand out second placer.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Raab has not really got any room to grow, even if all McVey and Leadsom's votes transfer to Raab that is still only 47 votes. Johnson vs Gove or Hunt.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Yeah, it doesn't look as if there's enough "Not Boris" votes to stop him.
The next round will be interesting though, to see which of Gove and Hunt looks like the stronger challenger, not really anything between them ATM
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
That won't stop him.
Aye. Need about 230 minimum to stop him, they only have 216 at max.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Unless some of those who voted for him today switch, which seems unlikely
hash tag
Books, not bombs
She should have gone to a different photographer.
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
Johnson is Prime Minister. There are only 199 non-Johnson votes available, so short of MPs switching away from him (how likely is that?) he's in the final 2 and will walk it with members.
Boris fucking Johnson. Prime Minister.
Boris fucking Johnson. Prime Minister.
newbie
undisambiguated
someone on the radio said the only person who can beat Johnson is Johnson... one monday Telegraph column away from defeat... that's why they won't let him talk to anyone and he's not likely to join in TV debates.
I'm not sure that's true. He must have a huge cupboard full of skeletons, plus plentiful enemies. Gove did for him last time. Stewart has come second in a Tory party members poll, and he's gone in with 'nuclear button, that clown!' type campaigning. I'd like to think this isn't over yet.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Johnson's victory over raab is the interesting thing here. Also, the idea that the tory MPs would stop Johnson getting on the members ballot hasn't exactly worked out.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Politics in a weird place. Tory MPs, many of whom hate him have decided that the last 3 years pose a question to which the only possible answer is Boris Fucking Johnson. I doubt that many of them are even thinking 'we've got to have Boris Fucking Johnson to do x and take us in that direction'. It's just that they are bouncing down a steep cheese rolling slope that heads in his direction.
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
I wonder how many people looked across the pond at Trump and thought 'that could never happen here'.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Well, if they're from Eton and Oxbridge anyway.
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