marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
It's the sort of stunt he could pull .
Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I predicted May last time, so this time see if my all seeing eye holds true with The Saj winning. I base this on nothing at all tho.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i can
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
it's a great pity you're not predicting the cards in the cluedo envelope
Stephen Bush reckons there's a shift from the sensibles in the party towards supporting Johnson fwiw.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-leadership-andrea-leadsom-boris-johnson/
But where are the numbers coming from in parliament to allow him to pull such a stunt?
Ed Balls topped the poll when he did strictly - him still being top 5 is residue from that.No need, I have you
Are you convinced by that poll though? It has May 3rd and Major 7th. Christ, Ed Balls is top 5!
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Hmmmm. I totally buy that a decent number are moving towards Johnson, but I'm not sure if it's because of his background so much as they're really desperate and they want someone who can win an election.
a little from column a, a little from column b.
You should bear in mind though, that while Johnson might be the most popular politician in the country, he's also one of the least popular - people are very polarised on him.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Of course, everyone on that list is more disliked than liked and he's really hated. But they don't have many alternatives who they will feel can win an election!
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
Difficult to predict anything at the moment ,Brexit-wise . A new Tory leader (Boris or other) might just go for it .
how though? Just going for it involves quite a lot of things that don't exist - like, a majority in the house, or any support at all within the conservative party for it. The parliamentary conservative party isn't just a bloc of votes a leader can corral into whatever mad scheme they think up - especially on this exact issue, as May's disasterous premiership has amply illustrated.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
It's one of the things she didnt try , the ERG block is maybe 40 or so , they would block it for sure , but there are enough remain-y Tories and Labour I'd have thought.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
She said she'd deliver brexit , she tied herself to that stake , she had no way out. A new leader may try a different approach. There's not a majority for a no deal Brexit .
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
if there's anyone who could deliver a corbyn government it's boris johnson.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
The question of whether or not Johnson can win a general election will not be at the forefront of the minds of the Tory party members who will vote for him.
of course, they're maniacs.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Best predictions are always made on the basis of no evidence
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yep. I also think agricola made a good point. May might have stood a better chance if she'd threatened no brexit rather than threatening a no deal that nobody believed she would do. A new leader could present a May-like deal vs no brexit in a referendum as the way out, throwing their weight behind the May-like deal.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
it is the urban way
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yeh a lot of people think he could win a general election, but i think that as has been said he will draw out the anti-toff vote much more than any of the other candidates.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Pretty much meaningless. The 'can't win' is very similar across the board, while the area filled by grey 'who the fuck is that' accounts for most of the rest of the variation. The fact that most people don't have a clue who Stewart is at the moment could even work in his favour eventually.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Well, yes; but just because polling is meaningless won't prevent those, for who it has perceived meaning, using it to support positions.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Not all polling is meaningless, but from that one all I really see is a description of how many people have heard of each of them. Johnson is the best-known, Stewart the least. And fewer people think that Stewart couldn't win than that Johnson couldn't, probably quite a few voting 'can't win' for Stewart on the basis that they've never heard of him.
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
There's likely to be a depressingly-large number of people who would vote for Johnson in a GE because he's amusing.
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