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Who is going to win the 2016 Tory leadership election?

who is going to win the 2016 tory leadership election?


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Still can't figure out what Goves up to, he must know he hasn't a cat in hells chance
Depends what his game really is. I don't doubt he would 'accept the democratic mandate' if it was 'forced upon him' and he was elected leader but I can't tell whether he was genuinely focused on that or whether there was always a 'Plan B' in which he collects support and then advises it to vote for someone who will give him a big role in implementation.

I do suspect he wasn't smart enough to anticipate that 'betraying' a second so-called friend and ally in less than a year might raise serious concerns about his trustworthiness and his judgement, in addition to the forseeable anger it has created both among the friends of those he's shafted, and among those who had seen them as a means to climb the greasy pole and now find their personal ambitions have been set back. Gove is reportedly a Game of Thrones fan. I suspect he is about to learn that there is a difference between soap opera power struggles and real life.

Making himself the focus has emphasised the degree to which he lacks 'star appeal' (lol). And his radical plans cut two ways. For those Tory's of a more conservative disposition, outside of the issue of Brexit itself his brand of 'modernising' 'radicalism' raises concerns, to add to those raised by his mixed success as a minister given the scale of the challenges ahead. I think some will prefer a leader who looks like they can deliver something rather than [ETA: someone who might turn out to be] their own version of Corbyn.

and knowing that he has scuppered the only Brexit politician who had a good chance of becoming PM and implementing Article 50,
Boris has 'public presence', 'brand recognition' and the phony 'jolly buffoon' thing going which indeed help make him 'electable'. But Gove was able to comprehensively end his chance of ever becoming leader because he drew attention to existing concerns about his being lazy and entirely untrustworthy. More importantly in terms of the politics of this, Gove highlighted the fact that Boris' natural instincts are that the free market is far more important than concerns about immigration. Boris' support evaporated precisely because he could not be trusted to deliver anything more than half-Brexit or faux-Brexit without someone like Gove to try to keep him in line (and frankly I think that may have been rather optimistic).

and practically ensuring the election of a remainder who will have a leaning to look at opportunities to upset the democratic decision recently taken.
Democratic decision ? Whoever gets to set the question gets to determine the nature and limits of the answer. It may not be the answer a 'remainder' (what a ridiculous term) would have preferred but these are politicians. They will bow to the inevitable when they have to and focus on seeing that the outcome does what is intended. To do their best to ensure that the pain and cost - and there really is no pain and cost free option going forward - disproportionately falls on us.
 
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The Mail on Sunday follows it's sister paper with more obsequious tributes to Theresa May and a front page consisting of attack pieces about Gove and Leadsom.

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The Leadsom story is about how her views on Brexit have changed since 2013 when she said :
‘I’m going to nail my colours to the mast here: I don’t think the UK should leave the EU. I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving.

‘Economic success is the vital underpinning of every happy nation. The wellbeing we all crave goes hand in hand with economic success.’
The Mail quote a spokesman for Leadsom
‘These remarks have been taken completely out of context.
which they helpfully place immediately above an audio clip of her saying them.
The Energy Secretary’s warnings about Brexit emerged 24 hours after she took a swipe at Mrs May, arguing: ‘If we want to make a go of it, then we need somebody who believes in it.’
In a separate Mail article Ian Birrell puts the boot in :
Thatcher did not stand for the leadership in fury at failing to get written assurances of a top job from a bumbling colleague such as Boris. Yet this snub seems to have been enough to persuade Leadsom to shoot for the nation’s highest office. (...)

Now it emerges that having campaigned with passion about the ‘opportunities’ offered by Brexit, she may have taken a rather different tack in the past and admitted it would be a disaster for the economy.

One more unedifying twist in a depressing saga that has put another stain on the soiled image of Westminster, with deception, hypocrisy and lies.

ROFL
 
Vermin serendipity from my tory MPs twitter list shows how things are going over there in nastyland...

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House Of Cards author Dobbs:

This is serious stuff. We are talking about the future of the country, the future of Europe and somehow it’s been reduced to not House of Cards, more like St Trinian’s.

It’s like a posh boys’ punch up and, frankly, I and millions of people around the country are rather fed up with it.

Michael Gove seen as 'political serial killer', says Andrew Marr
 
Clearly demonstrates that his ‘chin’ is in fact a water sac which requires constant replenishment
And he suspiciously carries the very same glass with him for years. It'll be one of those trick ones with the double wall so he can fake human-style thirst (as opposed to space lizard blood thirst).
 
And he suspiciously carries the very same glass with him for years. It'll be one of those trick ones with the double wall so he can fake human-style thirst (as opposed to space lizard blood thirst).
I knew I'd seen those lips before

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The Times goes for Leadsom in a front page story

Ukip accused of plotting to install Leadsom as PM
Mrs Leadsom, who will officially launch her campaign today, refused to rule out allowing Mr Farage, the Ukip leader, a place on Britain’s formal negotiation team and said that she wanted Britain to complete its exit by the spring.

That commitment was welcomed by Arron Banks, the businessman who funded Ukip and the Leave.EU campaign. He said on Friday that Leave.EU would throw its weight behind Mrs Leadsom, whom he described as the “breakout star” of the referendum. He added yesterday that his campaign group was able to communicate with 20 per cent of the party’s 150,000 members on social media.
David Jones, a former cabinet minister who led the Vote Leave campaign in Wales but is now backing Mrs May, said that Ukip figures were seeking to browbeat MPs into backing Mrs Leadsom while attacking the home secretary on social media. “There is no doubt that elements of Ukip are intending to try to steal a Conservative leadership election,” he said.
Inside a story goes into questions raised about her financial history. (The same story is picked up by the Telegraph and Mail but this version has more detail).

Leadsom tax affairs put under spotlight
Michael Gove has put pressure on his leadership rival Andrea Leadsom by making a full declaration today of his tax returns. Mr Gove’s records show that his only income is from public service while questions mount over Mrs Leadsom’s finances because of her close involvement with tax-efficient and offshore vehicles.

Mrs Leadsom, a former investment banker, sounded uncertain as to whether to publish her tax returns when challenged on TV yesterday. By contrast Mr Gove did not hesitate to say he would put his finances into the public domain. The pair are rivals for the votes of MPs who want the next prime minister to be a Brexit campaigner — unlike Theresa May, the frontrunner. On The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One, Mr Gove was asked whether he would publish his tax returns. “Of course, yes,” the justice minister responded.

Mrs Leadsom, though, stuttered: “I’m, I’m, oh, would I do? Yes, I’m perfectly happy to publish. I would not want to make MPs have to do that. I don’t believe that people should have to disclose everything in life.” Asked whether she would publish before the vote, she said: “I’ll have to think about that. I mean, in principle I’ve no problem with it but as I say I don’t want to set a precedent. I think MPs are under far too much . . .”

Marr interrupted: “Couldn’t you just say yes?” She replied: “Yes, OK, yes.”

Mr Gove’s returns, published at midnight, show he was paid £118,000 when education secretary in 2013-2014. The next tax year he was demoted to parliamentary secretary to the Treasury and chief whip, his income falling to £96,000. His MP’s salary was topped up last year by £158 in unspecified “other benefits”, which sources said were likely to consist of some office costs. Mrs May agreed in a television interview to publish her returns.

Mrs Leadsom, a banker and former City minister, has used devices that could reduce the tax contribution associated with her family assets and has accepted donations from businesses with roots in overseas havens. Her financial arrangements first came to light when details emerged about a buy-to-let company, Bandal, which she created with her husband, Ben, a fellow investment banker. In 2005, 24 per cent of its ownership was transferred to entities described as children’s settlements. This had the potential of reducing the inheritance tax burden on her assets.

A charge from the offshore bank Kleinwort Benson in Jersey was placed over some of the company’s properties.

After Mrs Leadsom became an MP, Bandal’s charges were made onshore and offshore loans were cleared. She told a local newspaper at the time that there were no tax avoidance schemes.

Her brother-in-law, Peter de Putron, based in the tax haven of Guernsey, is reported to have donated £816,000 to the Conservative Party. Part of his largesse comes from a British company called Gloucester Research, which has given Mrs Leadsom and the Tories £281,000 since 2007. At times its parent company was in the British Virgin Islands, a tax haven. The ultimate controlling party was Mr de Putron. The directors included Mr Leadsom.

The details emerged in a leak about Jersey offshore banking to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, a forerunner of its Panama Papers revelations this year.

Mrs Leadsom’s spokesman said at the time: “Andrea was not aware of the size of donations made by UK companies controlled by Peter de Putron to the Conservative Party and has never been involved in any way. She has not benefited personally from these donations.”
Her financial arrangements first came to light when details emerged about a buy-to-let company, Bandal, which she created with her husband, Ben, a fellow investment banker. In 2005, 24 per cent of its ownership was transferred to entities described as children’s settlements. This had the potential of reducing the inheritance tax burden on her assets.

Although on the Marr show she reluctantly agreed to release her tax returns, later on her team 'clarified' that she would only do so if she got to the final two.
 
The Times goes for Leadsom in a front page story

Ukip accused of plotting to install Leadsom as PM


Inside a story goes into questions raised about her financial history. (The same story is picked up by the Telegraph and Mail but this version has more detail).

Leadsom tax affairs put under spotlight
Michael Gove has put pressure on his leadership rival Andrea Leadsom by making a full declaration today of his tax returns. Mr Gove’s records show that his only income is from public service while questions mount over Mrs Leadsom’s finances because of her close involvement with tax-efficient and offshore vehicles.

Mrs Leadsom, a former investment banker, sounded uncertain as to whether to publish her tax returns when challenged on TV yesterday. By contrast Mr Gove did not hesitate to say he would put his finances into the public domain. The pair are rivals for the votes of MPs who want the next prime minister to be a Brexit campaigner — unlike Theresa May, the frontrunner. On The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One, Mr Gove was asked whether he would publish his tax returns. “Of course, yes,” the justice minister responded.

Mrs Leadsom, though, stuttered: “I’m, I’m, oh, would I do? Yes, I’m perfectly happy to publish. I would not want to make MPs have to do that. I don’t believe that people should have to disclose everything in life.” Asked whether she would publish before the vote, she said: “I’ll have to think about that. I mean, in principle I’ve no problem with it but as I say I don’t want to set a precedent. I think MPs are under far too much . . .”

Marr interrupted: “Couldn’t you just say yes?” She replied: “Yes, OK, yes.”

Mr Gove’s returns, published at midnight, show he was paid £118,000 when education secretary in 2013-2014. The next tax year he was demoted to parliamentary secretary to the Treasury and chief whip, his income falling to £96,000. His MP’s salary was topped up last year by £158 in unspecified “other benefits”, which sources said were likely to consist of some office costs. Mrs May agreed in a television interview to publish her returns.

Mrs Leadsom, a banker and former City minister, has used devices that could reduce the tax contribution associated with her family assets and has accepted donations from businesses with roots in overseas havens. Her financial arrangements first came to light when details emerged about a buy-to-let company, Bandal, which she created with her husband, Ben, a fellow investment banker. In 2005, 24 per cent of its ownership was transferred to entities described as children’s settlements. This had the potential of reducing the inheritance tax burden on her assets.

A charge from the offshore bank Kleinwort Benson in Jersey was placed over some of the company’s properties.

After Mrs Leadsom became an MP, Bandal’s charges were made onshore and offshore loans were cleared. She told a local newspaper at the time that there were no tax avoidance schemes.

Her brother-in-law, Peter de Putron, based in the tax haven of Guernsey, is reported to have donated £816,000 to the Conservative Party. Part of his largesse comes from a British company called Gloucester Research, which has given Mrs Leadsom and the Tories £281,000 since 2007. At times its parent company was in the British Virgin Islands, a tax haven. The ultimate controlling party was Mr de Putron. The directors included Mr Leadsom.

The details emerged in a leak about Jersey offshore banking to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, a forerunner of its Panama Papers revelations this year.

Mrs Leadsom’s spokesman said at the time: “Andrea was not aware of the size of donations made by UK companies controlled by Peter de Putron to the Conservative Party and has never been involved in any way. She has not benefited personally from these donations.”


Although on the Marr show she reluctantly agreed to release her tax returns, later on her team 'clarified' that she would only do so if she got to the final two.
Murdoch wants his man in place...again.
 
Mr Gove’s returns, published at midnight, show he was paid £118,000 when education secretary in 2013-2014. The next tax year he was demoted to parliamentary secretary to the Treasury and chief whip, his income falling to £96,000.

We paid this sack of bloated piss that much?


Fucking travesty.
 
Murdoch wants his man in place...again.
Neither the Times nor the Sun have formally declared for anyone although the Sun's version of the story about Leadsom's finances presents it as Gove 'turning the screw on his rival'. I can't detect any editorial anti-May slant in either paper, indeed the Times seems marginally more disposed to her. Perhaps they are waiting until MPs have chosen the final two and it goes to the membership.

Then again perhaps Murdoch will turn out to be as 'loyal' to his friends as Gove is :)
 
Neither the Times nor the Sun have formally declared for anyone although the Sun's version of the story about Leadsom's finances presents it as Gove 'turning the screw on his rival'. I can't detect any editorial anti-May slant in either paper, indeed the Times seems marginally more disposed to her. Perhaps they are waiting until MPs have chosen the final two and it goes to the membership.

Then again perhaps Murdoch will turn out to be as 'loyal' to his friends as Gove is :)
Hmmm...
On Tuesday, Rupert Murdoch told the CEO Summit staged by his newspaper The Times that Michael Gove should be the next prime minister. There was only one problem: Gove was not a candidate, and was backing Boris Johnson. Or so Boris thought.

Murdoch, Britain’s most powerful media mogul, likes Boris and meets him regularly, but has never rated him as a future PM – in contrast to his view of Gove, a senior journalist at The Timesbefore becoming an MP.
 
Oh they undoubtedly want him on the final ballot. The Sun editorial explicitly calls for a May vs Gove contest, but doesn't express a preference between them. (Trevor Kavanagh writes a pro-Gove column but again only argues he should be in the final two). A Times editorial counsels against any 'coronation' of May without a contest but this is expressed in terms of ensuring that there is no 'legitimacy' issue. I suspect they waiting until the Leadsom vs Gove vs Fox dust has settled. They don't appear to think much of the other two.
 
The Times continues with the investigation of Leadsom's finances. They may be coy about whether they prefer May or Gove but its fairly clear they don't think much of her.

Leadsom linked to tax trust Osborne called repugnant -Times
A company run by Andrea Leadsom’s husband and owned by her brother-in-law used a controversial potential tax-avoidance vehicle described by George Osborne as “morally repugnant”.

Gloucester Research Limited, which has donated more than £70,000 to the Tory leadership contender and a further £400,000 to the Conservative Party, used an employee benefit trust (EBT) for at least five years between 2007 and 2011.

The taxman has clamped down on the use of EBTs since December 2010 amid concerns that they were being abused by high-earning employees to avoid tax.

Last night a spokesman for Mrs Leadsom said that she had not known about the company’s use of an EBT when accepting donations from it.

Earlier the energy minister had launched her campaign with a pledge to attack the multimillion-pound pay packets of bosses and promised tax cuts for the less well-off.

She said that she would end freedom of movement for EU citizens if she became prime minister and appeared to rule out a role for Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, on her Brexit negotiating team after facing questions about Ukip’s backing for her candidacy.

Questions about the use of an EBT by her husband’s company will add to pressure on Mrs Leadsom, a former City minister who is one of five Tory leadership candidates, to publish details of her personal financial affairs.

EBTs are not illegal but have frequently been misused to avoid National Insurance contributions and income tax.

Money or shares would be transferred into trust and paid out to an employee in the form of a long-term loan, or when they were retired or no longer a resident in the UK for tax purposes.

HM Revenue & Customs has aggressively pursued financial settlements with businesses that used EBTs in this manner.

It is unclear how Gloucester Research, which provided research and IT services to a hedge fund run by the MP’s Guernsey-based brother-in-law, Peter de Putron, used its EBT or whether Mrs Leadsom’s husband, Ben, personally benefited.

Accounts suggest that the company transferred as much as £2.8 million into the trust over a five-year period when Mr Leadsom was one of three directors. Unusually, significant funds appear to have been transferred back from the EBT to the company during the same period, generating tax savings of almost £2 million.

The company was owned by Mr de Putron via an offshore holding company in the British Virgin Islands. Mr de Putron is married to Mrs Leadsom’s sister Hayley and the MP worked for the businessman as managing director of De Putron Fund Management in the late 1990s.

No reference to the EBT was made in Gloucester Research’s accounts from 2012 onwards, when it recorded a pre-tax profit of £14 million, and the company has since been wound up.

It made donations to Mrs Leadsom totalling £50,000 for staff and other costs in 2011 and gave £20,000 in cash the following year.

On Sunday, Mrs Leadsom said on the The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One that she was prepared to publish her tax return “in principle”, but it has since been reported that she intends to do this only if she is one of the last two candidates.

One of her rivals, Stephen Crabb, released tax returns yesterday showing that he earned just over £100,000 in the 12 months to April last year, and Michael Gove has previously published details of his earnings.

John Pugh, a Liberal Democrat MP on the public accounts committee, said: “People will want to know that the new prime minister will stand up against those who feel tax rules don’t apply to them. It would be deeply concerning if someone who is a candidate to be prime minister was willing to benefit from schemes that could enable people to avoid paying their fair share of tax.”

Mrs Leadsom, who was a prominent campaigner for Britain to withdraw from the European Union, is competing with Michael Gove and Liam Fox, the former defence secretary, for the “Leave” vote.

Mrs Leadsom has previously faced criticism over her financial affairs after it emerged that in 2005 she and her husband had transferred 24 per cent of the ownership of their buy-to-let company, Bandal, into trusts for the benefit of their children. Such a move can be used to avoid inheritance tax although at the time she said that it was a “normal corporate situation and all tax that is due is being paid”.

Mr Leadsom stepped down as a director of Gloucester Research, which had changed its name to GR Software & Research Limited, in November 2014. The company was dissolved in January, although its successor G-Research, is still operating.

A spokesman for Mrs Leadsom said that she had not been aware that Gloucester Research used an EBT and said that the money donated by the company had been used to fund a Eurosceptic pressure group called Fresh Start. G-Research did not comment.
 
The five candidates gave presentations at a 'hustings' organised by the 1922 committee. The most detailed account is in The Sun

PM hopeful Andrea Leadsom stuns Conservative MPs with her ‘car crash’ pitch at hustings - Sun
Star of Leave was backed by Boris and told MPs her agenda was 'bankers, Brussels and babies'

It included bizarre talk about the need to massage babies’ brains.

The leadership hopeful was speaking at a crucial hustings ahead of today’s first vote towards choosing the nation’s next PM.

Energy Minister Ms Leadsom — who was last night backed by Boris Johnson — told the packed Commons meeting her agenda was “bankers, Brussels and babies”.

She confused colleagues with a pitch that one MP said went down “like a cup of cold sick”.

Ms Leadsom made a U-turn on her pledge just 24 hours earlier to trigger negotiations to pull Britain out of the EU as soon as possible.

Instead she said she now wants to wait until the UK “gets a grip”.

She vowed to build a new rail freight train line from Dover to Edinburgh, ploughing up dozens of Tory constituencies along the way.

And she refused to distance herself from Ukip’s biggest financial backer, the eccentric multi-millionaire Aaron Banks, who funds the campaign group Leave EU.

Star of the Leave movement Ms Leadsom’s botched pitch blew the race for second place in the contest wide open last night.

Home Secretary Theresa May extended her lead in the five-horse race by winning the backing of 122 Tory MPs by last night.

That guaranteed she would make the final two, from whom the party’s 130,000 members will next week be asked to make a choice.

Ms Leadsom had taken second place from Justice Secretary Michael Gove — who knifed Leave comrade Boris Johnson last week — with 40 MPs backing her.

Mr Gove, has the support of 32 MPs, Work and Pensions Secretary Steve Crabb has 24, while former Defence Secretary Liam Fox is trailing with 13.

Nearly 100 are still undeclared.

One Tory MP said of Ms Leadsom’s performance: “She was rambling and ended up talking about how important it was to massage the prefrontal cortex of a baby’s brain.

“It was bizarre. This was meant to be an application to be PM, not a childhood development officer.”

Another undecided MP added: “She lost the room. People were talking to each other and playing on their iPads.

“I expected her to do much better. She has opened the door to Crabb or Gove again.”

Ex-banker Ms Leadsom was defended by her backer, the ex- Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith.

He told The Sun: “Andrea made a lot of sense and it was very refreshing to hear.

“Changing society starts with how we treat young children.”

Mrs May was greeted by loud banging on tables and walls, as each contender took it in turns to deliver their pitches.

Mr Gove’s pitch was heard largely in “stony silence”, one MP in the room said. But a minister backing him called his performance “articulate and impressive”.

Aides were surprised he faced no questions about knifing Boris.

Supporters of Mr Crabb said Mr Gove was given “a frosty reception”, adding: “They didn’t need to say anything but it was daggers drawn”.

A Leadsom backer said the hustings had been “a stitch-up” by Mrs May’s camp, who ensured others got tough questions while she got an easy ride.

Ms Leadsom’s pitch came hours after the latest survey of party members by the Conservative Home website had her and Mrs May as clear front runners in the race.

More Cabinet ministers backed Mrs May yesterday — Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, Environment Secretary Liz Truss, Scottish Secretary David Mundell and Tory deputy chairman Rob Halfon.

Mr Gove won the backing of ex-Chancellors Lord Lawson and Lord Lamont.

It emerged that many Tory MPs have been told by their associations that Mr Gove is now “toxic” for ditching Boris.

A senior Tory MP told The Sun: “The message from party activists was they want unity, and they think Michael’s election would prolong the civil war.”

The fifth-placed candidate will be knocked out after a first round of balloting of all 331 Tory MPs today.

A second vote is on Thursday and a third next Tuesday.

The final two candidates will then tour the country speaking in front of Conservatives, with the result of their vote on September 9.

She confused colleagues with a pitch that one MP said went down “like a cup of cold sick”.

Ms Leadsom made a U-turn on her pledge just 24 hours earlier to trigger negotiations to pull Britain out of the EU as soon as possible.

Instead she said she now wants to wait until the UK “gets a grip”.
(...)
Mr Gove’s pitch was heard largely in “stony silence”, one MP in the room said.
(...)
It emerged that many Tory MPs have been told by their associations that Mr Gove is now “toxic” for ditching Boris.

The question of which of the hard-Brexit candidates has the most support among MPs will be clearer after today's first ballot. Building unity around one of them is clearly not going to be simple.
 
Oliver Letwin is leading the Brexit negotiations. A man bambozzled by Camila Batmanghelidjh. This will end well.

i don't think he is - he's the Cabinet Office Minister, he has been given the job of assembling and organising the civil service unit that will do the leg work around the negotiation, as well as going through the current legislation to determine what will need to be ammended/replaced so that on exit day the government doesn't find that half the laws don't work because they were based on being members of the EU.

the actual Secretary of State for brexit might be Letwin, ut it will certainly be either a very close ally of whoever becomes PM, or someone who needs to be bought off to support them getting there.
 
Tracey MacLeod spills the beans:

...David and I did share the occasional canteen sandwich with our mysterious colleague, but we might as well have been lunching with a unicorn, so different was he from us or anyone else we knew. Apart from his politeness, and his apparent acid reflux problem, he didn’t really register as an actual person. It came as a surprise when a big group of his friends turned up to cheer him on from the studio audience, loudly applauding at the end of his sections and staying silent at the end of ours. At the time, I remember being amazed that he had friends at all, and that they looked relatively normal. But in retrospect maybe it was an early attempt at a putsch...

The TV show I made with Michael Gove still gives me nightmares
 
Fox bottom of poll at 16 unsuprisingly and eliminated
May - 165
Leadsom - 66
Gove - 48
Crabb - 34

ETA: If Fox Crabb and Gove's supporters all went to Leadsom (which seems very unlikely) they would still need people to switch from May for Leadsom to come first.

ETA2: 329 votes cast. Cameron didn't vote.
 
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